Paulson in China

Usd continued its choppy trading pattern in Asian session regaining some of it loses to the Eur. Aud, Nzd and Cad performed well in line with stronger commodity prices and weaker Usd. Recently the greenback has been hightly reactive to the price of crude as well as shifting interest rate expectations. Currently the market is split between 25bp & 50bp cut. Whether this will represent the final cut to a dramatic easing cycle is still a moot question. We are currently leaning to a 50bp cut but could easily shift with the release of ISM – non manufacturing data and payrolls figures.

Yesterday Bernanke testified to the Joint Economic Committee. He acknowledged that the economy "will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly" but steered well clear of the "R" word (as to be expected). On the inflation front his comments were slightly less hawkish then the Fed's last accompanying statement.


In China U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson issued a dire warning that "it is dangerous if you don't have a renminbi that reflects underlying fundamentals." In addition he stated that "appreciation has been good." So far Paulson's two day tour of Beijing has been uneventful but we weren't expecting much.

Today's ISM non manufacturing survey will hold the markets interest for a moment but will be overshadowed by Bernakes testimony and Friday's payroll (especially after yesterday unexpected 8k ADP survey).

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ForexGen steady in asian seasion today

Usd was firm in Asian session as the relief rally seen on Wall Street carried over to Asia equity markets. Market participants viewed the write downs by UBS and Deutsche as the start of a recovery process for the financial sector and gave risk appetite a lift. Commodity markets continued to slide as de-leveraging with gold remained on the the agenda of investors. Currently gold is trading around 890oz while crude, despite being afflicted by the de-leveraging, is still managing to hold above the important $100/bbl level. Overall the revival of global risk seeking environment has carry trades also outperforming.

Markets will be focused on Fed Chairman Bernanke's congressional testimony today and Thursday. Today he still speaking on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee and Thursday he will be before the Senate Banking committee to alk about the financial turmoil. The accompaning statement that followed the most recent Fed cuts (75bp) had a hawkish tone and it will be interesting to hear any comments about inflation expectations. Undoubtedly today he will be bombarded with questions regarding Bears' rescue and wether the bailout went too far when the Fed decided to take on 29bn of troubled assets.

Bernakes' comments and recent market activity should overshadow the US ADP survey. However this figure will help build our expectations for Fridays nonfarm payrolls

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

UBS Sinks Risk Appetite

ForexGen were steady in Asian session until late in the day when news of another financial institution in trouble sent traders looking for the exists. It was reported that UBS sought $15b in additional capital. Switzerland's largest bank, which is the European bank most afflicted by the mortgage crisis that began in the US, is poised to announce further losses of SFr8.2bn for the first-quarter. There is also an imbroglio as to how the bank might consider facing all its problems. There is a motion from a Swiss pension fund asking for a raise of SFr10bn in rights issue. the bank seeks on the other hand a broader resolution so as to maintain maximum flexibility. The pressure on Marcel Ospel, the bank's chairman, to resign has been mounting. He has always sought, however, to steer the bank through the crisis. The rest everyone knows. The news caught the markets off guard and EurUsd tumbled from 1.5780 to 1.5665 as investors most certainly unwound risk and looked for the greenback as a safe haven. A trade that was duplicated across the G10 currencies. Risk appetite had been steady increase with the help of Paulson, equity markets, and stronger US data but it looks like in the short term the credit crisis has created a risk adverse environment.

In Japan, the Tankan survey was overall weaker then expected falling to a 4-year low in q1. The biggest drop was in CAPEX where capital spending fell 1.6%. After the release a Japanese spokesman said that the report would not change the government's forecast as it still expects the economic recovery to stall.

In Australia, the RBA left it benchmark rate at 7.25% as widely expected. But it was the accompanying statement which moved the Aud to lower levels : "[the] tightening in financial conditions has been substantial [and] inflation will remain high in short term, but decline over time". had clear overtones of prudence albeit less hawkish then the past two statements. Consequently traders sold the Aud as the probability of another hike decreased.

In the Eurozone today the release of both euro-zone and German unemployment rates will be watched. While the labor market in the euro-zone remains in healthy territory there are increasing signals that the recovery has peaked.

In the US ISM manufacturing index will hold the market's attention. We expect the indicator to fall slightly to 47.5. While this reading is more consistent with an economic slowdown then outright recession, the index is perhaps overly optimistic

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

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Quiet Open To Week

ForexGen lacked motivation in a quiet Asian session. EurUsd bounced around 1.5761 -1.5817 levels while UsdJpy trended sharply upward from 98.82 to 100.18. Friday ended on a mixed note with stock markets weaker due to some weak US data (Michigan index) and energy and commodities price declined slightly. Over the weekend WSJ reported that Treasury Secretary Paulson would announce today "sweeping structural changes in the way the government monitors financial markets" giving the Fed broader authority to secure "market stability." While we are skeptical of giving the Fed such broad powers with very little oversight we are bracing for a resurgence of risk appetite and will be focused on short Jpy trades this week. On this theme the BoJ Tankan report Tuesday will be of interest. Listening to comments last week it seems that the leadership vacuum has created a lack of unity on how to deal with the combination of growing price risk and slowing economy. While currently the BoJ has not officially adapted an easing bias the market is still pricing in 14bp cut within the next 12 months. JPY remains in favor due to risk aversion and declining carry appetite but these themes could come under pressure this week. Another currency on our watch list this week is Gbp. BoE's King is also scheduled to speak. During the MPC testimony on the Feb inflation report last week the members were more pessimistic regarding the UK economy then previously. In addition, King voiced clear inflation risks, with CPI around 3%, however due to the extent of the economic downturn, he commented MPC is more inclined to cutting rates. We still believe that market hasn't fully pricing in a full easing cycle by the BoE with rates slipping to 4.00% by end 2008 so the Gbp has additional room to depreciate.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

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ForexGen Latest News (N.Korea Tests Missle)

Usd was steady in Asian session as volumes were thin. Majors were range bound for most of the morning with a jolt of risk aversion as news of the latest missile test by North Korea hit the market. Yesterday US data was broadly better then expected giving the Usd a temporary reprieve from selling. However we see this bullish sentiment to have a very short half life. US consumer consumption unexpectedly revised to 2.3% from 1.9% while inflation indicators eased moderately. Markets are still uncertain about how much of the US downbeat economic condition is already priced in to the Usd. However even if a large portion of weakness is already accounted for we believe that when traders will actually see the disturbing data which corresponds with a recession such as negative GDP or Wednesday's durable good orders, the Usd will come under renewed pressure. With BoJ Governor Suda hinting to a possible rate hike yesterday markets were particular interesting in Japan. Inflation pressure was recorded across the board with core CPI hitting 1.0% vs. 0.9% exp. UsdJpy trended down to 99.31 before North Koreas action reversed the downward slide and the market began to price in a lower probability of a rate cut in the next 12 months (from 17bp to 14bp). Nzd and Aud were both strong performers in Asia. New Zealand real GDP q4 increased 1.0% q/q & 3.7% y/y, the strongest quarterly growth since q3 2004. RBNZ Governor Bollard commented that inflation pressures in New Zealand remain relatively strong and the current setting of 8.25% with a flat outlook remains appropriate. Both currencies are still highly coupled with US and Europe growth and commodity prices. In the US the market will be watching Feb income and spending for signals on the health of the consumer and hints to q1 GDP. Retail sales increased moderately which suggests real consumer was stable providing more support that GDP contracted in q1.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Dollar Continues to Fall

The dollars' weakness is still the subject of discussion amongst traders around the globe. The weakness of the greenback is as much the result of inherent weakness as to relative frailty when the US economy is compared to its European rivals and Asian rivals. Yesterday the euro advanced when the German business sentiment rose, undermining expectations of rate cut in the eurozone area. This news came in the heels of lackluster figure of US consumer confidence index. The news coming out of Europe reinforces the feeling that the ECB will stay resilient and not curb rates. The dollar was thus under pressure falling 0.7 per cent against the yen and the 1.5 per cent against the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar. The decline of the dollar is bound to continue as the figures of machinery orders dropped by a record number for February. The leveling is still difficult to determine.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

"ForexGen Announcement" European Session - US Sentiment Index Down Again

US consumer confidence index dropped to 64.5 which is it's lowest since March 2003. Figures with regard to Conference Board's forward-looking expectation fell to 47.9 which is its lowest level in 34 years. These numbers clearly show that recession fears are all but settled. Today's figure shows that the consumer's outlook is very pessimistic and suggests that there will be more weakening in the months to come. The Fed will in all probability view these numbers as a queue to act on interest rates by lowering them further still. Many analyst are calling these figures very weak and expect the labor market to weaken for a length of time still difficult to assess. The data does not bode well for the dollar. Ten days ago we had the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index publish figures which hadn't been seen for over 16 years. And before that we had the Case-Schiller house price index, which reflect the price in 20 major cities across the US, falling to 10.7 per cent. Clearly the housing market crisis has yet to peter out and is still creating mayhem in the minds of American consumers. Uncertainties around household throughout America are growing. Despite this string of bad news the European government bonds remained lower. This is because of a persistent rumor that major central banks are considering buying mortgage backed securities from investors. This announcement has weighed heavily on bonds on both sides of the duck pond.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

ForexGen In European Session

ForexGen were actively in European session as a few discrete events had traders scrambling.
First were the comments from BoE Governor Meryn King during MPC testimony to Treasury Select Committee who stated "[...] this is not an economy that has completely grounded to a halt but we are looking ahead and expect some slowing…." GbpUsd sold off as the market hurried to price in easing as early as April.

Second was the German IFO which caught the market completely off guard. Most participants had risk slanted to the downside but that was not to be. German IFO Current Assessment printed up to 111.5 vs. 109.5 exp while hit Expectations 98.4 vs. 97.8 exp. With the economic engine of the Euro zone still humming along in light of an elevated Eur and slowing global demand this was clearly a positive. An economy which is declining at a moderate pace will give the ECB greater maneuverability with interest rates and keep supporting the Eur.

And the final event was US durable Goods Order Feb which fell -1.7% vs. 0.7% exp on the back of weak Jan figure. This is just further indication that when an economy drops into recession things unwind very quickly. Watch for further Usd weakness.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

ForexGen Announced That USD Euphoria Declines

USD was weaker in Asian sessions as traders returned from Easter to question the greenback's euphoria of last week. Eurusd rose to 1.5573 and UsdJpy fell to 100.08. The Usd inability to rally, especially given the positive existing home sales which rebounded yesterday by 2.9% to 5,030,000 in Feb, is a harbinger of near term Usd weakness. Signs of global slowdown should offer some support to the USD, particularly as market have priced in a probability that other central banks might ease their rates in teh short term. This global easing cycle had been predicted at the start of 2008. However we still see further economic weakness and the possibility of real interest rate going negative in the US which would be a heavy burden for the dollar to bear. In the short term the Usd will be vulnerable to any poor data or news. While many of the strategists are calling for Usd strength we expected the market to challenge one more time the 1.58-1.60 lvls before the trend shifts to a prolonged move downwards for reasons mentioned above. On Friday Acting BoJ Governor Shirakawa said that the handling of the recent global financial market turmoil was his top priority. He also mentioned that he had no predetermined monetary policy. The markets are currently pricing in a 15bp cut over the next 12 months. There could be more pricing in of rate cuts should officials agree on a coordinated response at the G7 gathering on April 12-13.
The European markets should be subdued due to a lack of data as markets participants wait for US and CA releases. In Canada we are expecting a rebound in Retail Sales which should keep the Cad in positive territory. Nonetheless the over all feeingl is that the softer commodity prices and exposure to the US economy will keep the currency on the defensive. In the US consumer confidence will garner the markets attention. Speculation and positioning suggests that the market expects a fair low figure.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Market Brief

Holiday Mode

The greenback was slightly weaker in Asian session. It looks like the Usd will close this week up for the first time in a month thanks to the Fed aggressive action. London and US markets are closed today for good Friday and this fact should keep trading subdued. The sudden shift in the Usd could be reflective of the change market sentiment toward Feds unorthodox approach to monetary policy and inevitable ECB easing. While being lengthened by the commodity markets sell off. But we don't believe traders should get so bullish on the greenback just yet. The US economy still has plenty of downside risk and we expect the Fed to move closer to 1.00% by mid year. Until this plays out we still see Usd weakness and EurUsd heading higher near term.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

The Markets Today With ForexGen

Asian Session - Commodities Continue to Sell Off

Usd was stronger in Asian session as the commodity sell off carried over from the US session. We don't see any fundamental drivers for this sudden weakness but the combination of Fed aggressive action stabilizing market confidence and the pure weight of trading position seem to be the most likely culprit. However the combination of steady yields and weakness in gold and other commodities could indicate a period of strength for the Usd. In addition should the Fed signal a reluctance to ease further we could be setting up for the second leg of the "Usd smile" theory.

On the continent markets will be watching flash PMI to provide indication of the extent of the slowing down in economic growth in the eurozone. While feb composite rise was a positive sign the index points to moderation in activity. Markets will be watching diligently especially in light of the euro fall and growing prospects for a ECB move. A weak release will consequently weigh on the Eur.

In the UK retails Sales are likely to see some pull back from the elevated Jan release. In fact we could see Jan figure revised down. In light of yesterday's 7-2 votes as reported in the MPC minutes and the growing expectation of a near term cut, the Gbp should stay weak. Especially given the dramatic two day sell off from 2.0270 down to 1.9776.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.