Showing posts with label England. Show all posts
Showing posts with label England. Show all posts

8.25.2008

London Session August 25, 2008

After some trend continuation on the USD and Oil on Friday, Asia made a break of support on most USD pairs leaving London wondering where to go. Being a holiday in England was already going to reduce liquidity and without nearby support or resistance, some time was needed to lay some framework for a trade plan.

Watching the Majors closely we were able to find these clues. In this video I focus on just one of these plans involving the GBP/USD. After a series higher lows, cable showed a break of the 15m 21ema. Once this occurred we did a Fibonacci study and simply awaited some level of confirmation on a 1m chart in the 38.2-61.8 range. Sure enough within 30 minutes this entry presented itself in the mid 1.9420's.

As for profit targeting it was quite simple. A retest of previous support now resistance at 1.8500-8510, which also happened to be the hourly 21 was our first real stop. So ultimately we were risking maybe 15 pips for a 75 pippish goal from our fib entry, certainly a quality risk vs. reward setup. Although it seemed to take literally forever to play out, there was never a reason to get out. Slowly we 'Rode the 5ema' and made our way to the 1.8520 area before abruptly returning to 1.9485 or so (another fib). Boring night for sure, but a decent 65-95 pip move even from the fib area here made the waiting well worth it.


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8.21.2008

Weaker USD In Majors

Forex Market Overview 21 August 2008

The Usd was weaker across the board in the Asian session, as continued concerns over Fannie and Freddie weight on sentiment. The EurUsd climbed from 1.4741 to 1.4812, while the UsdJpy fell sharply from 109.90 to 108.79. The GbpUsd traded in a 1.8620 to 1.8669 range, before breaking out in late session trading. The Jpy fueled carry trades continued to come under selling pressure, as risk aversion has crept back, with the EurJpy trading down to 161.07 and the AudJpy to 95.06. Wall Street closed in the black, but Asian regional indexes have been unable to hold on to the positive momentum, with loses across the board. European stock indexes are all pointing to a lower opening, with the exception of the FTSE. Crude & Gold continued to gain ground (pressuring Usd) with wti trading at $116.83bll and gold up 0.93% to $821.28oz.

The Japanese trade balance was only 91.1bn vs. 234.9bn exp, as import value grew (18.2% y/y) driven by oil related-price increases. It's interesting to note that exports to Asia grew, while US and Europe destined exports remained weak. Machine Tool Orders dropped -8.9% vs.
-8.9% prior reading.

On the continent, the market will be watching Eurozone's PMI surveys for continued evidence of deteriorating business activity. Should the figures come in line with market expectations, this will suggest that the region is in the midst of a technical recession. Sharp declines were printed in July for both manufacturing and service PMI for the second consecutive month.

In the UK, the market will be focused on Retail Sales. With CBI's falling off the map to lows not seen since 1983 and with the BRC's measure that also fell, we expected retail sales to follow…however not to dire levels.


Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8797
R 1: 0.8757
CURRENT: 0.8750
S 1: 0.8626
S 2: 0.8593
S 3: 0.8503

EURJPY
R 3: 163.88
R 2: 163.10
R 1: 162.39
CURRENT: 161.04
S 1: 160.88
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4201
CURRENT: 1.4102
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819

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Good Luck
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