Usd was stable in the Asian session as better then expected US data kept the greenback bears in check. EurUsd found support from the 5-ma trading from 1.5777 to 1.5820 while GbpUsd was unable to hold above the psychological 2.000 mark, trading between 1.9930 – 1.995. UsdJpy saw a decent rally off 105.25 to 106.18 before slipping slightly to 105.80 as the trading day wore on. Aud crosses were gainers after better then expected retail sales caused AudUsd to jump from 0.9521 to 0.9609 and AudJpy climb to 101.79.
Yesterday's rise in the ISM survey of manufacturing was a positive sign, however the detail's are less than hopeful. The composite index rose to 50.2 vs.. 48.5 exp (which suggest an annual GDP around 2.0%). The concern is that the largest contribution to this number was investors who increased accumulation due to soft demand. It’s interesting to note that the industrial sector has not yet been pulled down by the deteriorating housing sector and weak consumer confidence.
In Australia, retail sales rose 0.7% vs. 0.1%, the strongest biggest monthly rise since July 2007. At this point we expect this figure to be a one off as stock liquidation sales and significant discounting occurred as retailer attempted to improve the slow start to the year. In addition, building approvals fell by -6.5% vs. -3.0%. While positive data will undoubtedly give the Aud temporary support, as the markets speculate on the RBAs monetary policy, we expect the domestic market to continue to deteriorate.
In Turkey, police arrested a number of prominent secularists who were charged with planning a coup. We expect this is only the beginning of an escalation in a political power struggle as the Supreme Court hears arguments on whether to ban the AKP. Usdtry traded up to 1.2512 on the news.
In the European Session Euro zone Producer price inflation is expected to rise as surging energy prices have put pressure on inputs. A strong figure should give the EurUsd a supportive tone today. Note that Usd index is already testing the bull channel base and a break could lead to further weakness.
10.10gmt - ECB’s Tumpell-Gugerell Speaks
16.00gmt - US Trsy Sec pauls speaks
17.00gmt - Fed's Mishkin speaks
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9827
R 2: 0.9700
R 1: 0.9670
CURRENT: 0.9610
S 1: 0.9511
S 2: 0.9490
S 3: 0.9449
EURJPY
R 3: 170.00
R 2: 169.46
R 1. 168.60
CURRENT: 167.81
S 1: 166.09
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.52
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3729
CURRENT: 1.3618
S 1: 1.3560
S 2: 1.3506
S 3: 1.3470
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