Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 22 July 2008

Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session on light trading and higher oil prices. EurUsd traded up to 1.5930 from 1.5832 while UsdJpy slipped from 106.93 to 106.32. The GbpUsd continued to outperform despite mounting bearish sentiment climbing above the 2.000 handle to 2.0039. AudUsd consolidated around the 0.9750 level while Nok is beginning to regain its forward momentum, with UsdNok pushing lower to 5.0550. Crude prices paired back gains made in US session, with wti $130.50bbl which had pressured US equities lower on the day. Asian stock indexes are trading lower, with the exception of the Nikkei which is up 2.56%. European stock futures are looking to buck downward the trend and are all currently trading higher. VIX continues to decline, as risk appetite increased helping push yield slightly lower.

Japan’s All industry Index came in line with expectations at 0.4% m/m but lower than the prior 0.85 reading. Supermarket Sales jumped 0.9% vs. -1.1% prior reading.

With a light economic calendar this week, the market will be extra sensitive to comments from policy makers. Today’s comments from ECB members Bini-Smaghi and Liebscher sounded less hawkish than usual and downplayed the risk to economic growth. However, Bini admitted that the European recovery might take longer than forecast while the ECB’s July 3rd hike is beginning to take effect producing “visual benefits”. In regard to US officials, despite the potential of hawkish sounding rhetoric we don’t believe the Fed has the maneuverability to tighten without some signals of stability in housing sector, financial markets and perhaps most importantly, labor markets. Should the FX markets react to a hawkish comment, we would see this as an opportunity to sell Usd.

No major events or data scheduled for release in the UK or Europe .

12.30gmt - Fed's Plosser speaks on economic outlook

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9895
R 2: 0.9849
R 1: 0.9818
CURRENT: 0.9760
S 1: 0.9675
S 2: 0.9664
S 3: 0.9597

EURJPY
R 3: 171.07
R 2: 170.00
R 1: 169.92
CURRENT: 169.61
S 1: 168.25
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3717
R 2: 1.3661
R 1: 1.3565
CURRENT: 1.3519
S 1: 1.3452
S 2: 1.3399
S 3: 1.3300

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