EUR/USD
Resistance : 1,4760-70/ 1,4800-10/ 1,4860/ 1,4900-10/ 1,4950/ 1,5000
Support : 1,4660-70/ 1,4630/ 1,4590-00/ 1,4550/ 1,4500
Comment : Euro formed an upward reaction last week, after the lows at 1.4600 area, reaching the area of 1.4900 on Thursday. Bears gained momentum at those levels, as expected, and euro was led towards 1.4700 area again. A move resumption to lower levels is possible, as we will see in the chart analysis below.
After such a sharp decline, which didn’t give much opportunity to be followed, the first reaction towards 1.4900-1.5000 was expected to meet sellers, as we had mentioned in our analysis last week.
We should keep in mind that the target that emerges from the double top formation, which was breached downwards, is found at 1.4500-50 area, while the basic trend line that links 2005 lows is reached at 1.4450 area.As we have mentioned in our previous analysis, the ranges for the decline are found at 1.4550 area, and the most extreme scenario-according to current facts- would be a reach of 1.4300 area.
The most likely scenario would be a formation of an important low between 1.4450 and 1.4550. From those levels, a correction (from 1.6040 tops) around 38.2% and 50% would be possible and a retracement to the previous base of 1.5300, which should be tested as resistance, is likely.
For the time being, the downward move is been continued from the 1.4900 reaction, and first targets are set at 1.4660-70 and 1.4620-40. A move to new lows will lead euro to the first important target area (1.4500-50), followed by the area of 1.4430-50.
Intraday resistance emerges at 1.4760-70 and 1.4800-25, which is more important. This negative outlook will change after a move above Thursday’s tops at 1.4910…
TRADING EUR/USD
SWING TRADING : Sell positions, that were opened at the retracement towards 1.4900, where our first targets were set, could have as first target a pullback to 1.4630 lows. The upper part could remain open for the reach of the basic targets at 1.4550 area. Below those levels buy opportunities will emerge for the short term, adding positions per 50-70 pips until 1.4370-00 area, with stops below 1.4300. First target will be at 1.5000 and according to the conditions that will be formed, we will follow until 1.5200-5300 area.
INTRADAY TRADING : The short term trend after the reach of 1.4900 is bearish and should remain at least until the area of 1,4660-80 or 1,4600-30. We will use the first reaction towards the middle Bollinger in the hourly chart for intraday sell positions, adding more at 1.4790-4805, and stops above 1,4835.
Short term (small) buy positions could be tried at 1,4660-70 and 1,4630-40 support levels, with tight stops and targets.
GBP/USD
Resistance :1,8450-60/ 1,8490-8510/ 1,8550/ 1,8590/ 1,8620
Support : 1,8400-10/ 1,8370/ 1,8350/ 1,8320-30
Comment : The beginning of the week finds the pound still weak, as the decline was continued on Friday, below the important support levels of 1.8500. Our targets are set at 1.8300-5, where our target after the break of the big consolidation (we can see it in the daily chart) and the two equal waves from 2007 tops (AB and CD in the daily chart) are found.
As a result, after a move below 1.8350 area, we will examine the formation of an important short term low scenario. We will abandon this scenario after a move below 1.8270, and if these levels are breached, next important targets are set at 1.8000. This would be an extreme but yet possible short term scenario…
Important intraday resistance is found at 1,8500-30 and 1,8580-8610, which is more important.
TRADING GBP/USD : The sharp decline on Friday was continued in the beginning of the week, leading to the 1.8400 area. For the short term, we will use any reaction towards 1.8500-30 area for sell positions with stops above 1.8560 and target at a retracement to previous lows. Sell orders could be tried again at 1,8590-8610 with stops above 1,8650…
A move below 1,8350 will be used for buy positions, adding more at 1,8300 and stops below 1.8250. Our target for these positions will be wider at 1,8900-1,9000…
USD/JPY
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Technical analysis-Comments
G. Antonakos
Head of Analysis Dept.
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1 comment:
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