8.11.2008

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 11 August 2008

The Usd was broadly stronger in Asian session, as market prepare for a heavy week of economic indicators. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of last week aggressive Usd rally was the lack of strong confirmation from other financial markets, specifically rate and oil. The EurUsd strength clearly outpaced the gains in crude prices, while across practically all maturities the interest rate differential between the euro area and US are unchanged. This suggests the Usd is overbought. The EurUsd broke the critical 1.5000 support, trading down to 1.4911, while UsdJpy climbed to 110.40 before easing back to the figure. The AudUsd consolidated around the 0.8860 level, as August Statement of Monetary Policy held no real surprise one way or the other.

In Australia, the Statement of Monetary Policy didn't provide evidence that rates would be coming down near term. The main paragraph was unchanged from the last statement "On the assumption that the subdued demand conditions are likely to continue, scope to move to a less restrictive monetary policy stance in the period ahead is increasing." If there was a noticeable change in the statement it was a shift in the usual upbeat tone regarding China and India.

Consideration this week will be focused on if the long-bullish sentiment surrounding the Eur has come to an end, due to the slide in commodity prices and change in market perceptions regarding the direction of ECB monetary policy.

In the UK, today's PPI report might show that prices pressures have peaked. However, the CPI released due Thursday is unlikely to have such positive news. We are expecting CPI to rise to 4.1%, with the potential to peak in September

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9206
R 2: 0.9131
R 1: 0.9074
CURRENT: 0.8873
S 1: 0.8889
S 2: 0.8875
S 3: 0.8819

EURJPY
R 3: 169.97
R 2: 169.49
R 1: 167.82
CURRENT: 164.58
S 1: 165.01
S 2: 163.00
S 3: 161.73

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4058
CURRENT: 1.4072
S 1: 1.3925
S 2: 1.3819
S 3: 1.3767

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