Elliott wave: OIL & Usd/Chf

Gold hit the resistance area on Friday that was highlighted in our analysis, and along with a big drop in oil prices, pushed Eur/Usd lower. The euro now starts the week around 1.4700. The market may try to trade lower this week if the price of gold and oil continue their decline, and that may be lead by sentiment initially, but fed by a week of important U.S. based economic data. The moves on the euro automatically equate to new highs on Usd/Chf which bounced from the trend-line support that we have been looking at in recent posts, on Friday. We have an update on the one hour chart swissy chart, and have gone to the weekly oil chart to really get to the bottom of the technical story on oil. After all, who needs headlines when we have daily Elliott Wave analysis on the movers of the market?


OIL

Most currency pairs are highly correlated with Oil and Gold, they have to be in the respect that over 90% of all currency tickets has the Usd on one side of then or the other, as the Usd is the currency that international markets price oil in, traders should be watching commodities closely to find the right way on euro or swissy trends. We have kept this chart simple because that is the way that we like most charts to be; we have four clear waves with wave five to come. The chart is looking for technical support in wave four on Oil, which should slow down the short moves on Eur/Usd and push the Usd/Chf lower. Before that, we may need to see...

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Crude Oil And Better US Data

Market is looking for direction with lower Crude Oil and better US data

News and Events:

Last week upbeat readings on US durable goods orders, new home sales and consumer sentiment released buoyed the Dollar by lifting some of the gloom over the US economy.

The ongoing slide in crude oil prices is also supporting the greenback.

FX market is eyeing the direction of crude oil prices and US non-farms payrolls data, which is due on Friday.

European corporate earnings due this week may provide some direction to the Market.

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Dollar Rose On Bernanke

Dollar rose on Bernanke comments and Crude Oil drop

News and Events:

The Dollar rose on Tuesday as Bernanke said the Fed was considering extending the duration of the central bank's facilities for primary dealers into 2009 calming fresh credit concerns and encouraged investors to snap up US stocks.

Markets expectations of tighter US monetary policy by year-end were boosted by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker's comments that withdrawing some of the stimulus as risks to the economy diminished made eminent sense. Interest rate futures have fully priced in a 25bp hike in the fed funds rate by year-end. The benchmark overnight lending rate is currently at 2% after it was slashed by 325bp since September.