Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

8.25.2008

Economic Surprise Index for the USD/JPY

You can determine the expected strengthening or weakening of each currency and display the result by currency pair to form a fundamental context of each currency trade. Economic Surprise Index charts use cumulative weekly unexpected surprises from over 500+ daily economic events from eight countries that determine the magnitude and direction of the unexpected surprise component of news announcements.

ESI charts are independent of price, and are a leading indicator of price because they determine the expected strengthening or weakening of a currency pair using a standardized measure of how much and in what direction a country’s economic announcements are moving.

Shown below are the ESI and price charts for the USD/JPY. The ESI context of the trade changed in favor of the USD in March 2008, thus strengthening the USD/JPY. ESI charts display the cumulative unexpected economic surprises of a specific currency pair. You can also determine expected currency pair strengthening or weakening between any two points on the chart as of any given Friday throughout the year. For a more complete explanation of ESI charts and their usage, email info@quartustrading.com, Subject: ESI

Using the available Excel workbook, you can make, display, and print ESI charts for all currency pair from Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland, the U.K., and the U.S. Select 2, 3, or 4 month cumulative surprises from over 500+ daily economic events formed as the news is released. Choose your own events from each country or use the supplied event lists. Also in the ESI workbook are standardized unexpected event or SUE scales for each of the 500+ announcements that you can print as a visual aid for trading the news. A weekly one hour workbook usage webinar is available free to subscribers.

Best regards and good trading,
Quartus Trading LLC

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8.05.2008

The Forex Markets Today

The Markets Today Tuesday 05August 2008

EUR/USD

1.5505


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Euro is headed lower, target 1.5350. Strong support on the way lower at 1.5500 and 1.5460 may slow the move.

Short-term bearish trend at 1.5535. An hourly close above that can see a pullback to 1.5580.

1.5500 STRONG

1.5535 TREND

1.5460 STRONG

1.5585 KEY

1.5350 TARGET

1.5605 STRONG


GBP/USD

1.9565


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

1.9660 did not hold, Cable is at the lowest levels in 7-weeks and has space to fall to 1.9430.

Short-term bearish resistance at 1.9610 – a breech there may lift the pair to stronger 1.9660, but while the day loses underneath of that we will remain bearish

1.9550 MINOR

1.9615 MINOR

1.9480 STRONG

1.9660 STRONG

1.9430 TARGET

1.9740 KEY


USD/JPY

107.80


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

The top broke, 108.30 resistance held again and the pair returned to strong support at 107.65. BUY here, next attempt up will lead 100 pips higher to 109.35.

Stop longs upon breaking 107.50, risk is a dip to 106.60

107.65 STRONG

107.90 MINOR

107.15 MINOR

108.30 MINOR

106.60 STRONG

109.30 TARGET


USD/CHF

1.0520


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Closed the day at the high, for now holding minor bullish support 1.0500, while above we are looking to extend towards 1.0660

An hourly close underneath of 1.0490 risks 1.0420/40 in the short-term.

1.0500 MINOR

1.0535 MINOR

1.0450 STRONG

1.0590 MINOR

1.0420 KEY

1.0660 TARGET


XAU/USD

885.00


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Looking weak this morning, it has nearly reached our 882 target. This may offer some intermediary support and Gold could pull back to 894 for a new SELL

A fall through 880 has room for 865 or even 850 this week.

882 STRONG

888 MINOR

875 MINOR895 STRONG

895 STRONG

865 STRONG

903 STRONG




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