Economic Surprise Index for the USD/JPY

You can determine the expected strengthening or weakening of each currency and display the result by currency pair to form a fundamental context of each currency trade. Economic Surprise Index charts use cumulative weekly unexpected surprises from over 500+ daily economic events from eight countries that determine the magnitude and direction of the unexpected surprise component of news announcements.

ESI charts are independent of price, and are a leading indicator of price because they determine the expected strengthening or weakening of a currency pair using a standardized measure of how much and in what direction a country’s economic announcements are moving.

Shown below are the ESI and price charts for the USD/JPY. The ESI context of the trade changed in favor of the USD in March 2008, thus strengthening the USD/JPY. ESI charts display the cumulative unexpected economic surprises of a specific currency pair. You can also determine expected currency pair strengthening or weakening between any two points on the chart as of any given Friday throughout the year. For a more complete explanation of ESI charts and their usage, email info@quartustrading.com, Subject: ESI

Using the available Excel workbook, you can make, display, and print ESI charts for all currency pair from Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland, the U.K., and the U.S. Select 2, 3, or 4 month cumulative surprises from over 500+ daily economic events formed as the news is released. Choose your own events from each country or use the supplied event lists. Also in the ESI workbook are standardized unexpected event or SUE scales for each of the 500+ announcements that you can print as a visual aid for trading the news. A weekly one hour workbook usage webinar is available free to subscribers.

Best regards and good trading,
Quartus Trading LLC

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USD Against EUR

Dollar posted 5-week gains against Euro

News and Events:

The Dollar jumped to a 6-month high against the Euro on Friday, helped by another drop in oil prices and growing views the US economic slowdown may be bottoming while growth in the euro zone stalls. It also posted a fifth week of gains as investors shifted their view on the global economy's ability to withstand a downturn initiated in the United States.

Data in the US on Friday showed an unexpected rise in manufacturing activity in the New York state area and an increase in industrial output and consumer confidence. By contrast, reports on Thursday showed the euro zone economy contracted in Q2 for the first time since the common currency's inception.

A steep drop in commodity prices also has lent support to the Dollar easing concern about the US economic outlook in the second half of the year. Crude oil prices slid further on Friday and ended 0.9% lower at 113.90 per barrel.

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ECB And BOE

ECB and BOE are both expected to leave rates steady

News and Events:

The Dollar rose for a fourth straight day overall to a seven-month peak versus the Yen and a six week high against the Euro on Wednesday, as the slide in oil prices to a new three month low raised hopes economic growth would pick up and inflation would subside.

Earlier this week, Fed kept short term interest rates unchanged but was perceived as being slightly more concerned about slow economic growth than it was about inflation

Demand for the Euro fell ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting today. While the bank is expected to leave benchmark borrowing costs steady at 4.25%, analysts think ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet could soften his hawkish rhetoric, citing more data pointing to slower euro-zone growth.

Bank of England is also expected to leave rate unchanged at 5%, the lowest since December 2006.

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

The Forex Markets Today

The Markets Today Thursday 07 August 2008 / 10:15h CET

EUR/USD	1.5470
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Down to 1.5400 folowed by a 60-pip pullback. Bearish trend now at 1.5510, while underneath the Euro should continue to soften. We lower our target to 1.5290		A daily close above 1.5510 ends the bearish move and risks to see the pair hold in a range of 1.5450/1.5750 a while longer.	1.5450 MINOR 1.5475 MINOR 1.5425 STRONG 1.5510 TREND 1.5350 TARGET 1.5540 STRONG

GBP/USD	1.9500
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
A new low of 1.9460, this is a strong support and we risk to reverse up to 1.9565 before resuming the down-trend.		A break through 1.9460 has room for 1.9330. On top a daily close above 1.9565 can see a larger pull-back to above 1.97	1.9495 MINOR 1.9510 MINOR 1.9460 STRONG 1.9565 STRONG 1.9330 TARGET 1.9620 STRONG

USD/JPY	109.30
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Top of 109.75 means target achieved. Minor bullish trend at 109.35, a break there risks a fall back to strong 108.30		The market may want to see the 110 handle trade and keep the pair in high range all day.	109.35 MINOR 109.80 STRONG 108.90 STRONG 110.05 MINOR 108.30 KEY 110.30 STRONG

USD/CHF	1.0555
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
1.0620 high and back to the rising support at 1.0550. While this holds we can attempt 1.06 again, target remains 1.0660		A break of 1.0550 on the 4-H chart risks a dip to 1.0485 key, a lower daily close stops the bullish view.	1.0550 MINOR 1.0585 MINOR 1.0485 KEY 1.0620 MINOR 1.0445 STRONG 1.0660 TARGET

XAU/USD	883.00
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Expect Gold to remain range-bound 872 / 888, bias is to widen the downside towards 865 or even 850		A daily close above 888 could see Gold try the 905 key resistance tomorrow.	880 MINOR 888 STRONG 872 STRONG 894 MINOR 865 STRONG 906 KEY

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

The Forex Markets Today

The Markets Today Tuesday 05August 2008

EUR/USD	1.5505
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Euro is headed lower, target 1.5350. Strong support on the way lower at 1.5500 and 1.5460 may slow the move.		Short-term bearish trend at 1.5535. An hourly close above that can see a pullback to 1.5580.	1.5500 STRONG 1.5535 TREND 1.5460 STRONG 1.5585 KEY 1.5350 TARGET 1.5605 STRONG

GBP/USD	1.9565
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
1.9660 did not hold, Cable is at the lowest levels in 7-weeks and has space to fall to 1.9430.		Short-term bearish resistance at 1.9610 – a breech there may lift the pair to stronger 1.9660, but while the day loses underneath of that we will remain bearish	1.9550 MINOR 1.9615 MINOR 1.9480 STRONG 1.9660 STRONG 1.9430 TARGET 1.9740 KEY

USD/JPY	107.80
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
The top broke, 108.30 resistance held again and the pair returned to strong support at 107.65. BUY here, next attempt up will lead 100 pips higher to 109.35.		Stop longs upon breaking 107.50, risk is a dip to 106.60	107.65 STRONG 107.90 MINOR 107.15 MINOR 108.30 MINOR 106.60 STRONG 109.30 TARGET

USD/CHF	1.0520
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Closed the day at the high, for now holding minor bullish support 1.0500, while above we are looking to extend towards 1.0660		An hourly close underneath of 1.0490 risks 1.0420/40 in the short-term.	1.0500 MINOR 1.0535 MINOR 1.0450 STRONG 1.0590 MINOR 1.0420 KEY 1.0660 TARGET

XAU/USD	885.00
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Looking weak this morning, it has nearly reached our 882 target. This may offer some intermediary support and Gold could pull back to 894 for a new SELL		A fall through 880 has room for 865 or even 850 this week.	882 STRONG 888 MINOR 875 MINOR895 STRONG 895 STRONG 865 STRONG 903 STRONG

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

The Forex Markets Today

The Markets Today Friday 01 August 2008 / 11:40h CET

EUR/USD	1.5565
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
The move lower could gain speed in euro today. With strong initial resistance 1.5610 likely to top the market and space to fall to 1.5420		Bearish trend at 1.5650 is key – a weekly close above keeps the Euro at high levels.	1.5550 MINOR 1.5610 STRONG 1.5495 STRONG 1.5650 TREND 1.5420 STRONG 1.5700 KEY

GBP/USD	1.9785
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Cable touched the 1.9915 level just to fall and close the day bearish. Stay short, trend-line at 1.9885 is key, expect a fall towards 1.94 ish		Intra-day break of 1.9835 risks a spike up – sell such rallies, stop only upon a daily close above 1.99.	1.9750 MINOR 1.9835 STRONG 1.9680 STRONG 1.9885 TREND 1.9600 STRONG 2.0000 STRONG

USD/JPY	107.60
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Immediate bullish trend was broken, the correction stopped at 107.20 just to bounce back to 107.60. Strong initial support here, we expect another try of 108.20		A weekly close above 108.20 keeps the pair bid for 110. Failure to do so may see a side-ways range next week 106.50/108.50	107.55 STRONG 107.90 MINOR 107.20 STRONG 108.20 STRONG 106.65 KEY 108.90 MINOR

USD/CHF	1.0480
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Remains bullish, initial support at 1.0460, waiting to break higher – target 1.0660		1.0445 intra-day key support broken risks a set-back to 1.0350	1.0460 MINOR 1.0500 MINOR 1.0445 STRONG 1.0540 MINOR 1.0350 TREND 1.0660 TARGET

XAU/USD	909.00
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Volatile day yesterday, try both sides. The day ended underneath of 916 and we remain bears for a weekly close near 885		925 is key resistance today – a weekly close above that may hold Gold for a week.	900 MINOR 914 STRONG 895 STRONG 925 KEY 885 TARGET 931 STRONG

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.