Economic Surprise Index for the USD/JPY

You can determine the expected strengthening or weakening of each currency and display the result by currency pair to form a fundamental context of each currency trade. Economic Surprise Index charts use cumulative weekly unexpected surprises from over 500+ daily economic events from eight countries that determine the magnitude and direction of the unexpected surprise component of news announcements.

ESI charts are independent of price, and are a leading indicator of price because they determine the expected strengthening or weakening of a currency pair using a standardized measure of how much and in what direction a country’s economic announcements are moving.

Shown below are the ESI and price charts for the USD/JPY. The ESI context of the trade changed in favor of the USD in March 2008, thus strengthening the USD/JPY. ESI charts display the cumulative unexpected economic surprises of a specific currency pair. You can also determine expected currency pair strengthening or weakening between any two points on the chart as of any given Friday throughout the year. For a more complete explanation of ESI charts and their usage, email info@quartustrading.com, Subject: ESI

Using the available Excel workbook, you can make, display, and print ESI charts for all currency pair from Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland, the U.K., and the U.S. Select 2, 3, or 4 month cumulative surprises from over 500+ daily economic events formed as the news is released. Choose your own events from each country or use the supplied event lists. Also in the ESI workbook are standardized unexpected event or SUE scales for each of the 500+ announcements that you can print as a visual aid for trading the news. A weekly one hour workbook usage webinar is available free to subscribers.

Best regards and good trading,
Quartus Trading LLC

Attached Thumbnails

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Euro to fall at 1.4279

Economic Alarms

Mixed Performance of Euro zone and Satisfied data from US economy last week has let Euro to take satway Trend, where higher fuel price is a bitter experience for the Global Economic Growth.This week data from Euro would release saying Business conditions are shivering but still expecting for a better future, US got improvement in housing sector which is making greenish in consumer sentiment with good forecast as last Quarter GDP increased and forecast is higher.


Heads n Shoulders.

In weekly chart the clear "Head n Shoulder" would be interesting Trend. Before Euro rise back to 1.5 ish, it would fall to 1.4513 followed by 1.4279.

Taking look in the chart below:

Trend (Satway) with bullish Shadow.

13 days self adjust RSI at Over Sold Area.

Trading Below Pivot 1.4750


R3 = 1.5395 (STRONG)
R2 = 1.4906 (MEDIUM)
R1 = 1.4827 (MEDIUM)

S1 = 1.4673 (STRONG)
S2 = 1.4504 (MEDIUM)
S3 = 1.4279 (MEDIUM)

Opec's jealous for high Oil Prices would Find a support for Euro to not fall. where Supportive US data will keep euro in "Sell" mode for Short Time.

Best Buy "Bet" Observed at 1.4444. the risk observation is 165 pips.

Fundamentals are also considered to confirm the Trend.....

Why ForexGen?

1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
2. Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. ForexGen offers a free trial Forex demo account that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.

USD Rise Again

Crude Rises on hurricane fears in the US, Dollar rises after yesterdays data-led correction

News and Events:

US Housing starts initiated a Dollar correction against majors yesterday, while hurricane fears in the U.S pushed Crude higher. Gold rose above $810/o.z on both strong demand and dollar slump. Today's trading to be influenced by continued dollar strength and news from Canada on retail sales and leading indicators.

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Stronger USD In Asian Session

Forex Market Overview 19 August 2008

The Usd was stronger in Asian session, as concerns over slowing growth persisted. The EurUsd traded lower from 1.4700 to 1.4651, the while UsdJpy rallied from mid day 109.69 lows to 110.24, as the day progressed. The AudUsd came under pressure, as RBA minutes showed the members did contemplate an "early reductions", which sent the pair from 0.8700 to 0.8635 and the NzdUsd followed falling, from 0.7172 to 0.7045. Concerns of a tropical storm directly impacting the gulf's oil production eased slightly overnight (although not completely clear just yet), while crude hovered around the $111.50bll mark, which was Usd supportive. Wall Street traded lower yesterday led by the financial sectors, as worries over Fannie and Freddie and larger then expected q3 losses scared investors. Asian stock markets are currently trading lower and European stock futures are pointing to a lower opening.

As was universally expected, the Bank of Japan decided to hold rates steady at 0.5%. The BoJ stated domestic demand could soften further and both downside risks to growth and upside risk to inflation remain intact. In addition, the assessment of the domestic economy was lowered again, as concerns growth hat weakness in the US (and weakness in general exports) will send Japan into a fully blown recession.

In Australia, the RBA minutes showed that members did consider an "early reduction" in rates. However, the concerns that elevated inflation could lead to rising wages kept the bank on hold. We believe that the overall tone of the minutes supports a September cut, but a stronger case can be made for 25bp then 50bp (roughly 70bp of cuts have already been price in this year).

European activity will be centered on the German ZEW. We are expecting continued deterioration and a surprise to the downside. Investors sentiment did tick up in August from a very low level, while current conditions are certainly under-pressure. However, from a macro perspective, ZEW has not been tightly correlated with GDP growth in the past, so any market reaction will be short lived.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8797
R 1: 0.8757
CURRENT: 0.8651
S 1: 0.8633
S 2: 0.8593
S 3: 0.8503

EURJPY
R 3: 164.41
R 2: 163.88
R 1: 163.10
CURRENT: 161.11
S 1: 161.01
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4193
CURRENT: 1.4167
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819

ForexGen.com is an online trading service provider supplying a unique and individualized service to Forex traders worldwide. We are dedicated to absolutely provide the best online trading services in the Forex market.

ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.

Good Luck
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Stronger USD In Asian Session

Forex Market Overview 19 August 2008

The Usd was stronger in Asian session, as concerns over slowing growth persisted. The EurUsd traded lower from 1.4700 to 1.4651, the while UsdJpy rallied from mid day 109.69 lows to 110.24, as the day progressed. The AudUsd came under pressure, as RBA minutes showed the members did contemplate an "early reductions", which sent the pair from 0.8700 to 0.8635 and the NzdUsd followed falling, from 0.7172 to 0.7045. Concerns of a tropical storm directly impacting the gulf's oil production eased slightly overnight (although not completely clear just yet), while crude hovered around the $111.50bll mark, which was Usd supportive. Wall Street traded lower yesterday led by the financial sectors, as worries over Fannie and Freddie and larger then expected q3 losses scared investors. Asian stock markets are currently trading lower and European stock futures are pointing to a lower opening.

As was universally expected, the Bank of Japan decided to hold rates steady at 0.5%. The BoJ stated domestic demand could soften further and both downside risks to growth and upside risk to inflation remain intact. In addition, the assessment of the domestic economy was lowered again, as concerns growth hat weakness in the US (and weakness in general exports) will send Japan into a fully blown recession.

In Australia, the RBA minutes showed that members did consider an "early reduction" in rates. However, the concerns that elevated inflation could lead to rising wages kept the bank on hold. We believe that the overall tone of the minutes supports a September cut, but a stronger case can be made for 25bp then 50bp (roughly 70bp of cuts have already been price in this year).

European activity will be centered on the German ZEW. We are expecting continued deterioration and a surprise to the downside. Investors sentiment did tick up in August from a very low level, while current conditions are certainly under-pressure. However, from a macro perspective, ZEW has not been tightly correlated with GDP growth in the past, so any market reaction will be short lived.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8797
R 1: 0.8757
CURRENT: 0.8651
S 1: 0.8633
S 2: 0.8593
S 3: 0.8503

EURJPY
R 3: 164.41
R 2: 163.88
R 1: 163.10
CURRENT: 161.11
S 1: 161.01
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4193
CURRENT: 1.4167
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819

ForexGen.com is an online trading service provider supplying a unique and individualized service to Forex traders worldwide. We are dedicated to absolutely provide the best online trading services in the Forex market.

ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.

Good Luck
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Swiss Retail Sales Growth Slows More Than Expected In June

Monday, the Federal Statistical Office said in a report that Switzerland`s inflation adjusted retail sales rose 0.7% year-on-year in June, at a slower pace compared to 7.4% rise recorded in May. A year earlier, sales had risen 5.1%. Economists had expected the growth to slow to 3.3% for June.

When adjusted for inflation and the number of shopping days, retail sales rose 4.7% year-on-year in real terms.

In June, sales of food, drinks and tobacco rose 2.5% and that of clothes and textiles was up 0.6%. Sales of other products edged up 0.1%.

Further, the statistical office said retail sales rose real 2.7% year-on-year in the second half of the year after adjusting for inflation. In nominal terms, sales grew 4.4%.

ForexGen.com is an online trading service provider supplying a unique and individualized service to Forex traders worldwide. We are dedicated to absolutely provide the best online trading services in the Forex market.

ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.