FX Thoughts for the day - 25-Aug-2008 -1140 GMT

USD-CHF @ 1.0984/88... Resistance at 1.1035 held again.
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R: 1.1000-25 / 1.1040-50 / 1.1100
S: 1.0975-50 / 1.0900-880 / 1.0850 / 1.0800
A rise in the pair has once again been restricted to 1.1035, where it faces a strong Resistance. Since then, a dip towards 1.097 has been seen.

Later in the day, expect a further dip towards 1.0955 where the pair has some Support and a rise from there could be seen once again to test the Resistance. A sip below 1.09, unlikely for now, could attract buying interest in the 1.0840 region.


GBP-USD @ 1.8495/99... Could rise towards 1.8564
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R: 1.8500 / 1.8560-80 / 1.8620-60
S: 1.8420 / 1.8365-50 / 1.8300
A small rise since morning has been seen in the pair. For the day, Cable could see a further rise towards the Max High for the day at 1.8564. The Support at 1.8480 is essential for the rise towards 1.8564 to materialize.

Overall the pair continues to remain in a downtrend and is expected to slide further towards 1.83 in the days to come. The UK economy has seen no growth in the last quarter and could continue to face further growth related and housing related issues.

BOE has still not shifted focus from inflation to growth. However, now there could be some rate-cutting action in the days to come, which could eventually take the pair further lower.


AUD-USD @ 0.8674/78... Could rise towards 0.88
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R: 0.8721 / 0.8765 / 0.8800 / 0.8850-65
S: 0.8650-25 / 0.8600 / 0.8581
Aussie had faced major Resistance on a rise to 0.88 last week. However, since then a fall towards 0.8614 has been seen. For the day ahead, a rise towards 0.8721, Max High for the day could be seen. Similarly a further rise towards 0.8750-0.88 cannot be ruled out completely as the Moving Averages are flat and indicating towards the possibility of a rise again.

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Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 25 July 2008

The Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session, as sell off in the equity markets and higher oil price put pressure on the greenback. The EurUsd traded in a 1.5640 – 1.5750 range while the UsdJpy traded from 107.98 down to 107.40. US economic data came in worse than expected, sending yields lower, S&P -2.3% and halting the growing sense of optimism surrounding the US. In addition, deterioration in the Eurozone, lead by a decline in the German IFO, increased speculation that the ECB has room to raise rate in the coming month. Crude prices rose to $124.75bll.

In Japan, CPI was broadly inline with expectations. Nationwide CPI increased by 2.0% vs. 1.9% exp and core rose by 0.1% vs. 0.0% y/y exp. While the rise on inflation will catch the BoJ attention, BoJ’s Mizuno warned yesterday that the government might say that Japan is in a recession and that the BoJ is more concerned with risk to growth than inflation.

In the UK, provisional estimate of GDP q2 will capture the market’s attention. We expect that the UK economy has come to a stand still and possible ground to a halt. With dismal reports for the critical services sector and recent drop in retail sales, the risk is to the downside. We should see continued selling pressure on the Gbp.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9818
R 2: 0.9794
R 1: 0.9738
CURRENT: 0.9577
S 1: 0.9597
S 2: 0.9565
S 3: 0.9477

EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 167.67
S 1: 168.25
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3591
S 1: 1.3452
S 2: 1.3399
S 3: 1.3300

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