FX Thoughts for the day - 25-Aug-2008 -1140 GMT

USD-CHF @ 1.0984/88... Resistance at 1.1035 held again.
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.1000-25 / 1.1040-50 / 1.1100
S: 1.0975-50 / 1.0900-880 / 1.0850 / 1.0800
A rise in the pair has once again been restricted to 1.1035, where it faces a strong Resistance. Since then, a dip towards 1.097 has been seen.

Later in the day, expect a further dip towards 1.0955 where the pair has some Support and a rise from there could be seen once again to test the Resistance. A sip below 1.09, unlikely for now, could attract buying interest in the 1.0840 region.


GBP-USD @ 1.8495/99... Could rise towards 1.8564
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.8500 / 1.8560-80 / 1.8620-60
S: 1.8420 / 1.8365-50 / 1.8300
A small rise since morning has been seen in the pair. For the day, Cable could see a further rise towards the Max High for the day at 1.8564. The Support at 1.8480 is essential for the rise towards 1.8564 to materialize.

Overall the pair continues to remain in a downtrend and is expected to slide further towards 1.83 in the days to come. The UK economy has seen no growth in the last quarter and could continue to face further growth related and housing related issues.

BOE has still not shifted focus from inflation to growth. However, now there could be some rate-cutting action in the days to come, which could eventually take the pair further lower.


AUD-USD @ 0.8674/78... Could rise towards 0.88
-------------------------------------------
R: 0.8721 / 0.8765 / 0.8800 / 0.8850-65
S: 0.8650-25 / 0.8600 / 0.8581
Aussie had faced major Resistance on a rise to 0.88 last week. However, since then a fall towards 0.8614 has been seen. For the day ahead, a rise towards 0.8721, Max High for the day could be seen. Similarly a further rise towards 0.8750-0.88 cannot be ruled out completely as the Moving Averages are flat and indicating towards the possibility of a rise again.

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Slow Growth In EURO

Market is looking for Euro-zone and Britain for more evidence of slowing growth.

News and Events:

The Dollar rose on Wednesday, reversing a two-day losing markets, supported by views that slowing global economic growth would prompt a wave of interest rate cuts outside the United States. It gained in quiet trade despite a rebound in Crude Oil prices to $115.51 a barrel.

Data from Europe and Japan are increasingly pointing to deterioration in the growth outlook for those regions, leading
investors to anticipate early rate cuts from both the European
Central Bank and the Bank of England.

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There are worries that US home finance providers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may need a government bailout.

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USD Stability in Assian Session

Forex Market Overview 20 August 2008

The Usd was stable in the Asian session, despite the upside surprise in US PPI and slightly better than expected housing data. The EurUsd remained range bound between 1.4806 and 1.4742, and the UsdJpy traded between 109.90 and 109.62. Wall Street was lower yesterday lead by the financial sector and worries over Fannie and Freddie. Commodities bounced back with crude trading to $115.00bll, while gold rebounded back above $815oz. Asian regional stock indexes are surging with Shanghai higher by 7.55% and European indexes are poised to open higher with, the exception of the FTSE, down -2.28%.

The highlight of the European session will be the UK MPC minutes and we will see how close the BoE really is to raising rates. Judging from the price action of the Gbp, the markets are clearly expecting very dovish minutes echoing the dovish Inflation report. We expect the August vote to be identical to July's surprise vote, ie,7-1-1 (Tim Besley voting to raise rates). However, it is a bit astonishing that given the concerns over near term inflation stated in last weeks Inflation Report that in the same report would seem to endorse a rate move lower. There is considerable risk that, in light of the dovish Inflation Report, the market will view another 7-1-1 vote as slightly hawkish.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8797
R 1: 0.8757
CURRENT: 0.8703
S 1: 0.8626
S 2: 0.8593
S 3: 0.8503

EURJPY
R 3: 163.88
R 2: 163.10
R 1: 162.39
CURRENT: 162.28
S 1: 160.88
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4201
CURRENT: 1.4108
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819

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Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 11 August 2008

The Usd was broadly stronger in Asian session, as market prepare for a heavy week of economic indicators. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of last week aggressive Usd rally was the lack of strong confirmation from other financial markets, specifically rate and oil. The EurUsd strength clearly outpaced the gains in crude prices, while across practically all maturities the interest rate differential between the euro area and US are unchanged. This suggests the Usd is overbought. The EurUsd broke the critical 1.5000 support, trading down to 1.4911, while UsdJpy climbed to 110.40 before easing back to the figure. The AudUsd consolidated around the 0.8860 level, as August Statement of Monetary Policy held no real surprise one way or the other.

In Australia, the Statement of Monetary Policy didn't provide evidence that rates would be coming down near term. The main paragraph was unchanged from the last statement "On the assumption that the subdued demand conditions are likely to continue, scope to move to a less restrictive monetary policy stance in the period ahead is increasing." If there was a noticeable change in the statement it was a shift in the usual upbeat tone regarding China and India.

Consideration this week will be focused on if the long-bullish sentiment surrounding the Eur has come to an end, due to the slide in commodity prices and change in market perceptions regarding the direction of ECB monetary policy.

In the UK, today's PPI report might show that prices pressures have peaked. However, the CPI released due Thursday is unlikely to have such positive news. We are expecting CPI to rise to 4.1%, with the potential to peak in September

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9206
R 2: 0.9131
R 1: 0.9074
CURRENT: 0.8873
S 1: 0.8889
S 2: 0.8875
S 3: 0.8819

EURJPY
R 3: 169.97
R 2: 169.49
R 1: 167.82
CURRENT: 164.58
S 1: 165.01
S 2: 163.00
S 3: 161.73

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4058
CURRENT: 1.4072
S 1: 1.3925
S 2: 1.3819
S 3: 1.3767

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Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 07 August 2008

The Usd was vaguely weaker during the Asian Session, as participants seem to be content with their positions ahead of the critical BoE & ECB rate announcement today. The EurUsd traded higher to 1.5451 from 1.5401, while the UsdJpy traded up to 109.90 (7-month highs), on rumors of option barriers triggered on the break of 108.55. With no surprise, the Jpy fueled carry traded continued to see strong gains as the EurJpy climbed to an August. high at 169.43 and the “King of Carry”, the TryJpy, peaked at 94.45. The commodity bloc found some relief in Asian trading, with the AudUsd climbing from 0.9080 to 0.9120, while NzdUsd reversed earlier gains slipping from 0.7218 to 0.7175. We are seeing some pullback in EM appetite, with the UsdMxn looking to retest the 10.00 resistance and the EurPln continued to rally off 3.200 support to 3.2433. Wti crude is slightly frimer at $118.89bll, as well as gold at $884.15oz. Wall Street closed up and regional Asian stock markets are mixed, with Nikkei leading the losers down -0.93%. European stock futures are pointing to a mixed open.

The BoE & ECB rate announcement will dominate the European session.

In the UK, the BoE is expected to hold rates at 5.00%. Since the MPC is unlikely to issue a accompanying statement, market reaction will be limited. Recentley the market has witnessed a string of gloomy economic data not seen since the last recession. However, the tone of the last meeting minutes suggest that rates are more likely to go up to combat rising inflation than to fall….but that was before this last more economic deterioration and financial turmoil. We are expecting Besley to call for a hike and might find some support, given that the Inflation Report will be released this month. But with this commodity prices easing and a slight dropping in public’s inflation expectations, the BoE might be getting some relief. But right now, showing a “stiff upper lip” in spite of deteriorating fundamentals might be enough to anchor inflation expectations.

On the continent, the ECB is widely expected to hold rates at 4.00%. We doubt, given the clear signs of economic deterioration and headline inflation expected to fall with easing commodity prices, that a move upward would be prudent. Trichet will have to stick with the usual hawkish rhetoric. There is significant risk that this month’s statement will put greater emphasis on the slowing growth story (again helped by declining commodity prices), which the market will perceive as dovish and as the reconsideration of the “no bais” mindset.Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
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ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

ECB And BOE

ECB and BOE are both expected to leave rates steady

News and Events:

The Dollar rose for a fourth straight day overall to a seven-month peak versus the Yen and a six week high against the Euro on Wednesday, as the slide in oil prices to a new three month low raised hopes economic growth would pick up and inflation would subside.

Earlier this week, Fed kept short term interest rates unchanged but was perceived as being slightly more concerned about slow economic growth than it was about inflation

Demand for the Euro fell ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting today. While the bank is expected to leave benchmark borrowing costs steady at 4.25%, analysts think ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet could soften his hawkish rhetoric, citing more data pointing to slower euro-zone growth.

Bank of England is also expected to leave rate unchanged at 5%, the lowest since December 2006.

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ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

EUR/USD Narrow Ranges

Euro/Dollar would trade in narrow ranges before Fed’s decision today and ECB meeting on Thursday

News and Events:

The Dollar rose against the Yen on Monday as the Oil price's drop to a three-month low and some better US economic data generated optimism about the economy outlook. But caution ahead of Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting to decide on US interest rates saw the Dollar ease against the Euro.

Data last week showed that the US economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.9% in Q2, up from 0.9% in Q1 of 2008. That raised outlook of higher US interest rates by the end of the year. But analysts generally expect the Fed to leave its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 2% on Tuesday and deliver a neutral statement on future policy.

Traders will also await rate decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's statement may focus on rate-raising possibility.

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 28 July 2008

The Usd was stronger at the start of the trading week in the Asian session. The EurUsd traded around the 1.5700 levels, while the UsdJpy failed to hold above the 108.00 level, slipping down to 107.84 as the day progressed. The NZD was supported by heavy margin buying, according to the Tokyo Financial Exchange publicly released data last week. The UsdNzd was able to rally of the 0.7409 session low to 0.7439. The UsdMxn saw a massive gap on the open, spiking from 10.0200 to 10.1229, as the BANXICO announced the end of its daily selling net fx reserves from accumulated oil revenues. The Jpy fueled carry trades continued to perform well, as risk declined and Japanese economic fundamentals erode. The EurJpy continued to rally from Friday's sell off, which saw 167.50 lows to Asian session 169.70 highs. The Asian stock markets are following the US higher, with Shanghai up 1.78%. Commodities are slightly firmer with wti crude trading up 0.28% to $123.61brl.

Despite the sudden resurgence in the Nzd strength, due partially to the excessive buying of Japanese margin traders and low liquidity, we expect to Nzd to weaken considerable in the coming week. Trade balance narrowed with imports falling on slowing demand but exports grew unexpectedly. With a "normal" monetary policy rate round 6.00% - 6.25% levels and the RBNZ clearly signaling a shift to a growth focus, the interest rate differential long enjoyed by the kiwi will unravel.

No major events or economic data scheduled for release in the UK or Eurozone.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9795
R 2: 0.9675
R 1: 0.9637
CURRENT: 0.9555
S 1: 0.9525
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9450

EURJPY
R 3: 171.80
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 169.13
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3660
CURRENT: 1.3638
S 1: 1.3563
S 2: 1.3500
S 3: 1.3448

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 25 July 2008

The Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session, as sell off in the equity markets and higher oil price put pressure on the greenback. The EurUsd traded in a 1.5640 – 1.5750 range while the UsdJpy traded from 107.98 down to 107.40. US economic data came in worse than expected, sending yields lower, S&P -2.3% and halting the growing sense of optimism surrounding the US. In addition, deterioration in the Eurozone, lead by a decline in the German IFO, increased speculation that the ECB has room to raise rate in the coming month. Crude prices rose to $124.75bll.

In Japan, CPI was broadly inline with expectations. Nationwide CPI increased by 2.0% vs. 1.9% exp and core rose by 0.1% vs. 0.0% y/y exp. While the rise on inflation will catch the BoJ attention, BoJ’s Mizuno warned yesterday that the government might say that Japan is in a recession and that the BoJ is more concerned with risk to growth than inflation.

In the UK, provisional estimate of GDP q2 will capture the market’s attention. We expect that the UK economy has come to a stand still and possible ground to a halt. With dismal reports for the critical services sector and recent drop in retail sales, the risk is to the downside. We should see continued selling pressure on the Gbp.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9818
R 2: 0.9794
R 1: 0.9738
CURRENT: 0.9577
S 1: 0.9597
S 2: 0.9565
S 3: 0.9477

EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 167.67
S 1: 168.25
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3591
S 1: 1.3452
S 2: 1.3399
S 3: 1.3300

The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.

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Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 23 July 2008

The Usd consolidated gains in the Asian session as hawkish comments from US officials and oil falling sharply helped boost the Usd. The EurUsd stayed in a tight range from 1.5775 to 1.5798, while the UsdJpy saw choppy trading between 107.16 to 107.38. The NzdUsd slipped to 0.7750, as traders speculate on an earlier than expected rate cut. The AudUsd also lost ground, despite the higher then expected inflation reading. The US equity market shrugged off poor earnings to close up and Asian equities are following. Commodities still are soft with gold down -1.65% to 945.68oz and wti crude at 127.74, as the declining global growth story gains traction and damped demand of inflation hedges.

It was Fed’s Plosser ultra hawkish comment that added momentum to the Usd buying frenzy yesterday (part of a recent trend of hawkish comments from Fisher, Hoenig, Stern & Lacker but divergent from Bernanke’s stated views). Stating "We will need to reverse course - the exact timing depends on how the economy evolves, but I anticipate the reversal will need to be started sooner rather than later. And I believe it will likely need to begin before either the labor market or the financial markets have completely turned around." The comment “before either the labor market or financial market has completely turned around” was unprecedented, since the Fed has never raised rates while payrolls shown a negative trend. As we stated yesterday in our Asian session, we had expected rhetoric from policy makers to affect FX sentiment in the ultra short term and expect the aggressive Usd buying to reverse intraday.

Australian CPI released today rose quicker than the market had expected by 1.5% q/q vs. 1.2% exp (lifting y/y to 4.5% vs. 4.2% exp). However, the RBA preferred measure rose by q2 1.2% q/q, which was unchanged from previous reading. We expect the RBA to be on hold for the remainder of the year, as moderating growth should help ease inflationary pressures.

The highlight of the European session will be the UK MPC minutes for July. There are mounting signs that the MPC might have slightly shifted towards a growth focus. June’s minutes showed that members had discussed further tightening and, since then, all measures of inflation have increased (ppi, cpi and inflation expectations). However, much of this deterioration was expected. What has been unexpected was the rate of moderation in the real economy and the genuine risk the UK might slip into a recession. We expect Blanchflower to have voted for a cut (as always), but the market might get a surprise from Kate Barker, a good proxy for general sentiment. With the Gbp trading at 1.9900 on yield differentials, any real or perceived shift could lead to a considerable sell-off.

14.00gmt - Fed's Mishkin speaks
16.15gmt - Fed's Kohn speaks

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9895
R 2: 0.9850
R 1: 0.9818
CURRENT: 0.9673
S 1: 0.9675
S 2: 0.9665
S 3: 0.9597

EURJPY
R 3: 171.07
R 2: 170.00
R 1: 169.92
CURRENT: 169.78
S 1: 168.25
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3717
R 2: 1.3660
R 1: 1.3597
CURRENT: 1.3606
S 1: 1.3452
S 2: 1.3395
S 3: 1.3300

The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.

ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).

Profile regulatory information:

ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.

The Forex Market Overview

The Forex Market Overview 15 July 2008

The Usd was broadly weaker in Asian sessions causing traders to brace themselves for a data heavy day as risk aversion moved back into the market. EurUsd after a short retreat, trended upwards from 1.5882 to 1.5954 while AudUsd broke easily thru 0.9737 intraday resistance heading to 0.9772 new highs. UsdJpy slipped to 105.70 as concerns over credit market losses damped risk appetite. As expected, Jpy funded carry trades were also sold off. Worries in credit markets are currently weighing on equity markets with Shanghai’s down 3.43% and DAX falling 1.77% at the open (US futures are lower across the board). Precious metals continue to surge forward with gold trading to 973.78 and silver 19.13. And given the current state of uncertainty VIX has climbed to 28.48 and 1month implied Vols have followed.

In a unanimous vote the BoJ held rates at 0.50% as expected. In addition, their half year update revised growth downwards while raising the CPI forecast. Perhaps the key take away, was the unique wording surrounding inflation which stated "in the case that downside risk to the economy eases, risks to higher fluctuations in the economy and prices may be intensified due to prolonged easy monetary conditions". This hints that the BoJ is concerned that its loose monetary policy might actually be aiding to inflation and that they therefore, are willing to tighten should CPI move above their comfort zone. We expect that this comment will only benefit Jpy in the short term as markets are still trading on yield differentials and risk appetite.

In New Zealand inflation moves higher than expected, with food and energy by far the largest contributors. Headline inflation printed strong at q/q 1.6% vs. 1.4% exp, y/y 4.0% vs. 3.8% exp. Given these elevated figures it would be difficult for the RBNZ to rationalize a rate cut in July and even puts Sept cuts in jeopardy.

In Australia the RBA minutes released today were mildly dovish. The Key takeaway for the minutes were "weighing up the various factors, the Board judged that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate". The RBA recognized that the economy was clearly weakening stating "Consumer spending had slowed significantly and there had been a marked decline in the growth of credit to both households and businesses. Surveys indicated that confidence had fallen further over the past month and asset prices were weakening".

In the UK markets, we will be watching CPI data which is likely to rise from 3.3% to 3.6% y/y and give the Gbp some support. In addition with signs of acceleration in June PPI the BoE will be gauging second round effects into core. In our view with inflation far from peaking, the MPC should be on hold for the next few months at least.

On the continent, German ZEW will have trades attention. We are expecting another decline to -56.0 from -52.6…getting precariously close to all time recession lows of -62.0. While this index is not very accurate in regards to predicating GDP we don’t expect the market to look kindly on the gloomy data.
14.00gmt - Fed’s Bernanke Testifies to Senate on Economy

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9923
R 2: 0.9792
R 1: 0.9758
CURRENT: 0.9788
S 1: 0.9664
S 2: 0.9597
S 3: 0.9546

EURJPY
R 3: 171.88
R 2: 170.00
R 1: 169.67
CURRENT: 168.52
S 1: 167.83
S 2: 167.13
S 3: 166.09

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3729
CURRENT: 1.3480
S 1: 1.3476
S 2: 1.3470
S 3: 1.3400

The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.

ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).

Profile regulatory information:

ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.