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Technical analysis-Comments G. Antonakos Head of Analysis Dept.
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1. The details and information included in the above analysis, are part of research based exclusively on currency charts and are of purely instructional and educational nature. None of the information featuring in the analysis can be considered as an invitation for opening positions in FOREX market or in the market of forward contracts or any securities listed on an organized or unorganized market.
2. We assume no responsibility for any kind of losses, profits or property loss resulting, in whole or in part, from acts that are based either directly or indirectly on the processing or the use of information, details and strategies, the reader may find in the analysis. The readers hold full responsibility for the use and the results of their actions.
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Technical analysis-Comments G. Antonakos Head of Analysis Dept.
DISCLAIMER
1. The details and information included in the above analysis, are part of research based exclusively on currency charts and are of purely instructional and educational nature. None of the information featuring in the analysis can be considered as an invitation for opening positions in FOREX market or in the market of forward contracts or any securities listed on an organized or unorganized market.
2. We assume no responsibility for any kind of losses, profits or property loss resulting, in whole or in part, from acts that are based either directly or indirectly on the processing or the use of information, details and strategies, the reader may find in the analysis. The readers hold full responsibility for the use and the results of their actions.
3. The recipients of the analysis must acknowledge and accept that investment choices of any kind, especially concerning the FOREX market, contain risks (high, low and occasionally zero) of reduction or even loss of their investment. Therefore, they should always be cautious prior to any kind of action.
4. We reserve the right to change the terms and the characteristics of the analysis.
5. The contents of the analysis are solely intended for personal use. They may not be re-transmitted, reproduced, distributed, published, adapted, modified or assigned to third parties in any way whatsoever. Anyone having access to them is required to comply with the law provisions on the protection of third party intellectual property rights
Why ForexGen?
Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
ForexGen offers a free trial Forex demo account that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.
Comment : Euro formed an upward reaction last week, after the lows at 1.4600 area, reaching the area of 1.4900 on Thursday. Bears gained momentum at those levels, as expected, and euro was led towards 1.4700 area again. A move resumption to lower levels is possible, as we will see in the chart analysis below. After such a sharp decline, which didn’t give much opportunity to be followed, the first reaction towards 1.4900-1.5000 was expected to meet sellers, as we had mentioned in our analysis last week. We should keep in mind that the target that emerges from the double top formation, which was breached downwards, is found at 1.4500-50 area, while the basic trend line that links 2005 lows is reached at 1.4450 area.As we have mentioned in our previous analysis, the ranges for the decline are found at 1.4550 area, and the most extreme scenario-according to current facts- would be a reach of 1.4300 area. The most likely scenario would be a formation of an important low between 1.4450 and 1.4550. From those levels, a correction (from 1.6040 tops) around 38.2% and 50% would be possible and a retracement to the previous base of 1.5300, which should be tested as resistance, is likely. For the time being, the downward move is been continued from the 1.4900 reaction, and first targets are set at 1.4660-70 and 1.4620-40. A move to new lows will lead euro to the first important target area (1.4500-50), followed by the area of 1.4430-50. Intraday resistance emerges at 1.4760-70 and 1.4800-25, which is more important. This negative outlook will change after a move above Thursday’s tops at 1.4910…
TRADING EUR/USD SWING TRADING : Sell positions, that were opened at the retracement towards 1.4900, where our first targets were set, could have as first target a pullback to 1.4630 lows. The upper part could remain open for the reach of the basic targets at 1.4550 area. Below those levels buy opportunities will emerge for the short term, adding positions per 50-70 pips until 1.4370-00 area, with stops below 1.4300. First target will be at 1.5000 and according to the conditions that will be formed, we will follow until 1.5200-5300 area. INTRADAY TRADING : The short term trend after the reach of 1.4900 is bearish and should remain at least until the area of 1,4660-80 or 1,4600-30. We will use the first reaction towards the middle Bollinger in the hourly chart for intraday sell positions, adding more at 1.4790-4805, and stops above 1,4835. Short term (small) buy positions could be tried at 1,4660-70 and 1,4630-40 support levels, with tight stops and targets.
Comment : The beginning of the week finds the pound still weak, as the decline was continued on Friday, below the important support levels of 1.8500. Our targets are set at 1.8300-5, where our target after the break of the big consolidation (we can see it in the daily chart) and the two equal waves from 2007 tops (AB and CD in the daily chart) are found. As a result, after a move below 1.8350 area, we will examine the formation of an important short term low scenario. We will abandon this scenario after a move below 1.8270, and if these levels are breached, next important targets are set at 1.8000. This would be an extreme but yet possible short term scenario… Important intraday resistance is found at 1,8500-30 and 1,8580-8610, which is more important.
TRADING GBP/USD : The sharp decline on Friday was continued in the beginning of the week, leading to the 1.8400 area. For the short term, we will use any reaction towards 1.8500-30 area for sell positions with stops above 1.8560 and target at a retracement to previous lows. Sell orders could be tried again at 1,8590-8610 with stops above 1,8650… A move below 1,8350 will be used for buy positions, adding more at 1,8300 and stops below 1.8250. Our target for these positions will be wider at 1,8900-1,9000…
USD/JPY
You can find the complete analysis at the pdf...
Technical analysis-Comments G. Antonakos Head of Analysis Dept.
DISCLAIMER 1. The details and information included in the above analysis, are part of research based exclusively on currency charts and are of purely instructional and educational nature. None of the information featuring in the analysis can be considered as an invitation for opening positions in FOREX market or in the market of forward contracts or any securities listed on an organized or unorganized market.
2. We assume no responsibility for any kind of losses, profits or property loss resulting, in whole or in part, from acts that are based either directly or indirectly on the processing or the use of information, details and strategies, the reader may find in the analysis. The readers hold full responsibility for the use and the results of their actions.
3. The recipients of the analysis must acknowledge and accept that investment choices of any kind, especially concerning the FOREX market, contain risks (high, low and occasionally zero) of reduction or even loss of their investment. Therefore, they should always be cautious prior to any kind of action.
4. We reserve the right to change the terms and the characteristics of the analysis.
5. The contents of the analysis are solely intended for personal use. They may not be retransmitted, reproduced, distributed, published, adapted, modified or assigned to third parties in any way whatsoever. Anyone having access to them is required to comply with the law provisions on the protection of third party intellectual property rights
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Because the markets are largely sitting on key support and resistance levels right now it makes technicals much more important and critical than some of the fundamentals we may normally be interested in. Market sentiment at these levels can be extremely volatile so I am watching those announcements that are likely to have the biggest impact on forex traders in the short term.
From that perspective it is tempting to get a little over focused on the USD, and with GDP and FOMC releases due this week that temptation is somewhat justified. Traders in general have been increasing their outlook for growth in the US recently as evidenced by the trend in equities. If the GDP prelim. numbers or consumer confidence or even the FOMC minutes appear soft we could get a rejection at resistance on the USD and therefore a continued reversal across the majors. Check out the video for our take on the rest of the week's news and what we think will matter most.
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The Usd was slightly weaker in the Asian session and start of the trading week. This week will have market participants pondering the swift unraveling of the global growth decoupling story and sharp correction in commodity prices. The massive surge in the Usd caught many analysts off guard, causing a broad recalculation of forecasts. However, most are now predicting a short term tempering of Usd buying. We should like to see how this week's trading plays out, before expressing our short term bias. The EurUsd traded upward from 1.4649 to 1.4767, while UsdJpy fell slightly from 110.61 to 109.97 on light trading. The commodity bloc was able to gain some ground, with the NzdUsd moving sharply from 0.7040 to 0.7100 and AudUsd from 0.8654 to 0.8745. Crude is slightly higher trading at $115.11bll up 1.17% while gold is above the $800oz mark. The Asian regional indexes are following Wall Street mixed closed on Friday, with Shanghai down -4.61%. European futures are now pointing to a mixed opening.
With a relatively empty calendar today, the European session markets will be watching the EuroZone trade balance for signs of global weakness.
Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD R 3: 0.8952 R 2: 0.8845 R 1: 0.8797 CURRENT: 0.8750 S 1: 0.8652 S 2: 0.8593 S 3: 0.8504
EURJPY R 3: 164.40 R 2: 163.88 R 1: 163.10 CURRENT: 162.52 S 1: 161.845 S 2: 161.39 S 3: 160.15
USDSGD R 3: 1.4265 R 2: 1.4220 R 1: 1.4193 CURRENT: 1.4123 S 1: 1.4025 S 2: 1.3890 S 3: 1.3820
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Expect some volatility on the markets today as consumer sentiment will be released. The expectation is 62% and if the actual value released is greater than the 62% expectation then that will normally indicate strength for the Dollar.
Euro had a minimal intra day bounce before it's downtrend continuation but a further continuation or a reversal could pend on today's consumer sentiment.
We took another position on the AUDJPY with 80 pips in profit zone and managing the trade. It is unlikely we will hold this position over the weekend.
Below are today's daily pivot points.
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Signs of economic slowdown in Europe, Asia and Australia reduced outlooks for higher interest rates and boosted demand for Dollar
News and Events:
The Dollar rallied to a five-and-a-half month high against the Euro on Monday, boosted by another drop in Crude Oil prices and speculation that the US economy slowdown was spreading worldwide. Mounting signs of economic difficulties in Europe, Asia and Australia have diminished prospects of higher interest rates outside the United States, bolstering demand for the Dollar.
The euro briefly recouped some of its losses after European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher warned that policy-makers remained focused on taming high inflation. Liebscher told Market News International that inflation risks remained to the upside in the medium term and that there is no room for "complacency" on euro zone interest rates and inflation.
Declining Oil prices helped ease worries about the impact of higher energy costs on the US economy and also helped boost demand for the greenback.
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The Usd was broadly stronger in Asian session, as market prepare for a heavy week of economic indicators. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of last week aggressive Usd rally was the lack of strong confirmation from other financial markets, specifically rate and oil. The EurUsd strength clearly outpaced the gains in crude prices, while across practically all maturities the interest rate differential between the euro area and US are unchanged. This suggests the Usd is overbought. The EurUsd broke the critical 1.5000 support, trading down to 1.4911, while UsdJpy climbed to 110.40 before easing back to the figure. The AudUsd consolidated around the 0.8860 level, as August Statement of Monetary Policy held no real surprise one way or the other.
In Australia, the Statement of Monetary Policy didn't provide evidence that rates would be coming down near term. The main paragraph was unchanged from the last statement "On the assumption that the subdued demand conditions are likely to continue, scope to move to a less restrictive monetary policy stance in the period ahead is increasing." If there was a noticeable change in the statement it was a shift in the usual upbeat tone regarding China and India.
Consideration this week will be focused on if the long-bullish sentiment surrounding the Eur has come to an end, due to the slide in commodity prices and change in market perceptions regarding the direction of ECB monetary policy.
In the UK, today's PPI report might show that prices pressures have peaked. However, the CPI released due Thursday is unlikely to have such positive news. We are expecting CPI to rise to 4.1%, with the potential to peak in September
Daily Forex Pivot Point AUDUSD R 3: 0.9206 R 2: 0.9131 R 1: 0.9074 CURRENT: 0.8873 S 1: 0.8889 S 2: 0.8875 S 3: 0.8819
EURJPY R 3: 169.97 R 2: 169.49 R 1: 167.82 CURRENT: 164.58 S 1: 165.01 S 2: 163.00 S 3: 161.73
USDSGD R 3: 1.4265 R 2: 1.4219 R 1: 1.4058 CURRENT: 1.4072 S 1: 1.3925 S 2: 1.3819 S 3: 1.3767
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The Usd was broadly unchanged for Friday's close in the Asian session. The EurUsd closed at 1.5560 and is now trading at 1.5580, while the UsdJpy closed at 107.60 and is now trading at 107.80. The Jpy fueled carry trades gained slightly, with EurJpy easing up towards 168.00 and the AudJpy strengthened to 100.50. Emerging Asia was slightly stronger, with the UsdSgd falling to the 1.3690 support. The commodities are seeing a broad rally, with crude wti up 0.76% to $126.06bll and gold up 0.37% to $914.35oz (also giving the commodity bloc ccy a small bounce). Regional Asian equity markets are following Wall Street weak close across the board, with Shanghai's down -1.00%. European stock futures are pointing to a negative open lead by the FTSE down -1.17%. Ominous start to the week, where most analysis are calling for continued Usd gains.
A big week for Central Banks (and currency markets), with the Fed, RBA, BoE and ECB deciding on rates. In this event studded lineup, perhaps the most anticipated event will be the ECB accompanying statement and Trichet's subsequent comments. We have seen recent economic data in the Eurozone hit a soft patch, while commodities have sold off. The market is gambling on that in the near future the ECB will change its hawkish tune, which will push the EurUsd even lower. In addition, with increasing probability that Central Banks in the developed countries will now have room to stave out economic collapse with inflation expectations declining, the dollar seems to be in the driver's seat. Note: CFTC positioning data for the week up to July 29 points to an adjustment out of USD short positions against the G10, with only the Aud holding a significant net long position against the greenback.
In the European session, the Eurozone producer price inflation will have the markets attention. We are expecting another surge in prices across the region (currently at it highest level in 25 years). While we expect the ECB to stay hawkish, with the economy stagnating and food and energy prices softening, the interest rates will not rise again.
Daily Forex Pivot Point AUDUSD R 3: 0.9528 R 2: 0.9476 R 1: 0.9419 CURRENT: 0.9306 S 1: 0.9286 S 2: 0.9276 S 3: 0.9206
EURJPY R 3: 169.73 R 2: 169.19 R 1: 168.31 CURRENT: 167.70 S 1: 166.98 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3850 R 2: 1.3827 R 1: 1.3728 CURRENT: 1.3721 S 1: 1.3651 S 2: 1.3606 S 3: 1.3567
The Usd was able to hold on to late day gains in the Asian session, as weak initial jobless claims threaten to end the greenback strength. However, a late US session sell off in oil and less than hawkish comments from ECB members, quickly came to the Usd aid. The EurUsd traded lower from 1.5605 to 1.5550, while the UsdJpy bounced between 108.40 and 107.55. The AudUsd fell sharply lower, as a local media reported that the RBA was ready to start easing, trading down to 0.9360.. In the late Asia trading FX markets have gotten very quiet, as market seem willing to wait until this afternoon’s release of US Non Farm Payrolls. Crude is slightly weaker at $123.34bll, while gold is trading down to $910.50oz. As the trend of falling economic activity continues in the G10, we expect commodity prices to continue to soften, which, in turn, should support the Usd.
Paulson said yesterday in Washington that… "While the stimulus is making our economy stronger than it would have been otherwise, the housing correction, credit market turmoil and high energy prices remain a considerable drag on the economy -- and the effects of this drag can be seen in the soft job market". Paulson also expressed that he sees improvement in the US economy saying..."We are making progress, although not in a straight line. Housing continues to be at the heart of our economic challenges and remains our most significant downside risk…We must work though the necessary adjustments in housing and credit markets to return to growth next year and beyond."
A lack of data in European session will have the market squarely focused on the US session and the release of non-farm payrolls. The much better than expected ADP figures, which printed at 9k, has once again provided intrigue to today already volatile release. We still believe, after yesterday’s jump in initial jobless claims and further deterioration in the Conference Board survey (job component), that the risk are skewed to the downside. In addition, ADP has been overly optimistic in recent months. While we are expecting something slightly higher than the 75k consensus, our gut is saying that anything is possible today, especially how events and sentiment are falling in place for Usd bulls.
Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD R 3: 0.9528 R 2: 0.9476 R 1: 0.9419 CURRENT: 0.9369 S 1: 0.9357 S 2: 0.9328 S 3: 0.9276
EURJPY R 3: 169.73 R 2: 169.19 R 1: 168.31 CURRENT: 167.23 S 1: 167.10 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3850 R 2: 1.3827 R 1: 1.3717 CURRENT: 1.3694 S 1: 1.3606 S 2: 1.3567 S 3: 1.3501
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The Usd traded sideways in Asian session, after the stronger ADP figures and rally on Wall Street pushed the greenback higher. The EurUsd traded in a 1.5525 to 1.5602 range, while the UsdJpy traded between 107.80 and 108.34. US stocks gained, as ADP pointed to a 9k gain vs. -60k, giving hope that Friday's NFP will prove stronger then the -75k expected. The S&P gained 1.7% and 2 year Ts dropped by 2.6%. Crude rallied to $126.88brl, but with global demand slowing we expected upside to be limited. Yesterday's decision by the Turkish Constitutional Court not to close the AKP was clearly seen as positive for markets, with Try and equities gaining on the report (with a positive gap at the open today). While the verdict has not ended all domestic concerns, it will go a long way to ease investors concerns.
The Japanese Industrial production fell by -2.0% m/m vs. -1.7% exp. The government has already cut forecasts for industrial output, as surveys point to further weakness ahead.
The European Session will be focused on Eurozone's July flash CPI. The market is expecting a new record high of 4.1% and there is little evidence to suggest otherwise. This figure, combined with the sharp drop in key Economic Sentiment Indicator, will mean at some point soon the ECB will have to make a tough choice. Inflation or Growth.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9637 R 2: 0.9590 R 1: 0.9528 CURRENT: 0.9438 S 1: 0.9404 S 2: 0.9328 S 3: 0.9276
EURJPY R 3: 171.81 R 2: 171.07 R 1: 169.97 CURRENT: 168.27 S 1: 167.50 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3850 R 2: 1.3827 R 1: 1.3717 CURRENT: 1.3685 S 1: 1.3606 S 2: 1.3567 S 3: 1.3501
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service. ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.
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The Usd was constricted to a tight range in the Asian session, as a lack of new data kept traders on the sideline. The EurUsd traded between 1.5737 – 1.5754, while the UsdJpy trended slightly lower from 107.60 to 107.30, on a string of stronger figures. The Jpy fueled carry trades were unchanged, with the king of carry,the TryJpy, trading around 88.950. Oil followed gold slightly higher to $124.98bll & $931.50oz. The US stock markets were sharply lower ( as financial shares led the DJIA and S&P -2.11% and -1.85% respectively), pushing down Asian indexes and European futures. The FDIC's seizure of two smaller failed banks, over the weekend weighed on sentiment and cast cloud over the health of the US's consumer banking sector. Quietly, the VIX has crept back up to 24.23, but FX 1 month implied vols are steadily easing. Oil prices seem to be the critical driver in Usd pricing, ahead of the late week's data releases.
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service. ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.
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ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry. In Japan, the economic data came out stronger than expected. Retail Sales for June printed at 0.0% vs. -0.5% exp m/m (0.3% vs. -0.2% exp y/y). Household Survey was also stronger than the expectations, but the outlook is gloomy: Household Survey shows that real spending in June fell -1.8% vs. -2.8% exp. However, the number of respondents (in the Cabinet office survey), which indicated that they would cut back on dining out and entertaining spending, significantly exceed those who were looking to increase spending. BoJ's Nishimura spoke with the media and said that the BoJ's policy was 'wide open' between increasing upside inflation and downside growth risks.
In New Zealand, Building permits for June fell less than expected to -20.1 vs. -42.3% prior reading. While the NzdUsd received a slight boost on the release trading up to 0.7457, we don't expect the gains to hold.
Market will be watching a string of UK data in European session. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey has stabilized in the past couple of months, but it still highlights weak demand. Spending on summer clearance sales are reported to have been strong, but with consumers coming under pressure from rising inflation, the threat of unemployment and the fall of housing prices, we don't expect spending to stay buoyant. The number of mortgage approvals for new house purchase fell below their early 1990s lows in May and are expected to fall further in June. Supported by the British Bankers Association, figures already released are showing a fall last week. While the weak fundamental data will be tempered by inflation concerns, we are expecting some weakness in Gbp today on the negative data.
German regional CPI numbers will released throughout the day, along with the final national figure. With consensus at 3.1% we expect headline CPI to surprise to the upside.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9794 R 2: 0.9675 R 1: 0.9637 CURRENT: 0.9580 S 1: 0.9527 S 2: 0.9477 S 3: 0.9451
EURJPY R 3: 171.81 R 2: 171.07 R 1: 169.97 CURRENT: 169.41 S 1: 167.50 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3826 R 2: 1.3717 R 1: 1.3661 CURRENT: 1.3626 S 1: 1.3567 S 2: 1.3501 S 3: 1.3448
The Usd was stronger at the start of the trading week in the Asian session. The EurUsd traded around the 1.5700 levels, while the UsdJpy failed to hold above the 108.00 level, slipping down to 107.84 as the day progressed. The NZD was supported by heavy margin buying, according to the Tokyo Financial Exchange publicly released data last week. The UsdNzd was able to rally of the 0.7409 session low to 0.7439. The UsdMxn saw a massive gap on the open, spiking from 10.0200 to 10.1229, as the BANXICO announced the end of its daily selling net fx reserves from accumulated oil revenues. The Jpy fueled carry trades continued to perform well, as risk declined and Japanese economic fundamentals erode. The EurJpy continued to rally from Friday's sell off, which saw 167.50 lows to Asian session 169.70 highs. The Asian stock markets are following the US higher, with Shanghai up 1.78%. Commodities are slightly firmer with wti crude trading up 0.28% to $123.61brl.
Despite the sudden resurgence in the Nzd strength, due partially to the excessive buying of Japanese margin traders and low liquidity, we expect to Nzd to weaken considerable in the coming week. Trade balance narrowed with imports falling on slowing demand but exports grew unexpectedly. With a "normal" monetary policy rate round 6.00% - 6.25% levels and the RBNZ clearly signaling a shift to a growth focus, the interest rate differential long enjoyed by the kiwi will unravel.
No major events or economic data scheduled for release in the UK or Eurozone.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9795 R 2: 0.9675 R 1: 0.9637 CURRENT: 0.9555 S 1: 0.9525 S 2: 0.9477 S 3: 0.9450
EURJPY R 3: 171.80 R 2: 171.07 R 1: 169.97 CURRENT: 169.13 S 1: 167.50 S 2: 166.00 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3826 R 2: 1.3717 R 1: 1.3660 CURRENT: 1.3638 S 1: 1.3563 S 2: 1.3500 S 3: 1.3448
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service. ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.
ForexGen principals:
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The Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session, as sell off in the equity markets and higher oil price put pressure on the greenback. The EurUsd traded in a 1.5640 – 1.5750 range while the UsdJpy traded from 107.98 down to 107.40. US economic data came in worse than expected, sending yields lower, S&P -2.3% and halting the growing sense of optimism surrounding the US. In addition, deterioration in the Eurozone, lead by a decline in the German IFO, increased speculation that the ECB has room to raise rate in the coming month. Crude prices rose to $124.75bll.
In Japan, CPI was broadly inline with expectations. Nationwide CPI increased by 2.0% vs. 1.9% exp and core rose by 0.1% vs. 0.0% y/y exp. While the rise on inflation will catch the BoJ attention, BoJ’s Mizuno warned yesterday that the government might say that Japan is in a recession and that the BoJ is more concerned with risk to growth than inflation.
In the UK, provisional estimate of GDP q2 will capture the market’s attention. We expect that the UK economy has come to a stand still and possible ground to a halt. With dismal reports for the critical services sector and recent drop in retail sales, the risk is to the downside. We should see continued selling pressure on the Gbp.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9818 R 2: 0.9794 R 1: 0.9738 CURRENT: 0.9577 S 1: 0.9597 S 2: 0.9565 S 3: 0.9477
EURJPY R 3: 171.81 R 2: 171.07 R 1: 169.97 CURRENT: 167.67 S 1: 168.25 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3826 R 2: 1.3717 R 1: 1.3661 CURRENT: 1.3591 S 1: 1.3452 S 2: 1.3399 S 3: 1.3300
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Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session on light trading and higher oil prices. EurUsd traded up to 1.5930 from 1.5832 while UsdJpy slipped from 106.93 to 106.32. The GbpUsd continued to outperform despite mounting bearish sentiment climbing above the 2.000 handle to 2.0039. AudUsd consolidated around the 0.9750 level while Nok is beginning to regain its forward momentum, with UsdNok pushing lower to 5.0550. Crude prices paired back gains made in US session, with wti $130.50bbl which had pressured US equities lower on the day. Asian stock indexes are trading lower, with the exception of the Nikkei which is up 2.56%. European stock futures are looking to buck downward the trend and are all currently trading higher. VIX continues to decline, as risk appetite increased helping push yield slightly lower.
Japan’s All industry Index came in line with expectations at 0.4% m/m but lower than the prior 0.85 reading. Supermarket Sales jumped 0.9% vs. -1.1% prior reading.
With a light economic calendar this week, the market will be extra sensitive to comments from policy makers. Today’s comments from ECB members Bini-Smaghi and Liebscher sounded less hawkish than usual and downplayed the risk to economic growth. However, Bini admitted that the European recovery might take longer than forecast while the ECB’s July 3rd hike is beginning to take effect producing “visual benefits”. In regard to US officials, despite the potential of hawkish sounding rhetoric we don’t believe the Fed has the maneuverability to tighten without some signals of stability in housing sector, financial markets and perhaps most importantly, labor markets. Should the FX markets react to a hawkish comment, we would see this as an opportunity to sell Usd.
No major events or data scheduled for release in the UK or Europe .
12.30gmt - Fed's Plosser speaks on economic outlook
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9895 R 2: 0.9849 R 1: 0.9818 CURRENT: 0.9760 S 1: 0.9675 S 2: 0.9664 S 3: 0.9597
EURJPY R 3: 171.07 R 2: 170.00 R 1: 169.92 CURRENT: 169.61 S 1: 168.25 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3717 R 2: 1.3661 R 1: 1.3565 CURRENT: 1.3519 S 1: 1.3452 S 2: 1.3399 S 3: 1.3300
The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.
ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).
Profile regulatory information:
ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.
Usd was stable in Asian session as the lack of new data and non-data events gave speculators nothing new to trade on. EurUsd stayed well within Fridays range, trading from 1.5830 – 1.5874 while UsdJpy trended slightly lower from 106.98 to 106.71. AudUsd broke out of Fridays doldrums, trading back up to 0.9767. Asian Equity markets are in the green while European index futures are pointing to a negative open. Commodities are higher with wti crude trading at $129.88bbl and gold up .66% to 961.37. Bonds continue to decline across the treasury curve, as risk appetite is slowly returning to the market. FX 1-month implied vols are coming off last weeks highs, helping to support renewed risk appetite.
In the UK Rightmove House Price indices showed another decline in prices m/m 1.8% ( y/y 2.0%). In addition, the report also warned that unsold homes (per agency) have hit a record high. While the market was silent to the news, with deteriorating domestic conditions and the housing correction still well entrenched, the BoE will be increasingly pushed into a difficult dilemma (especially considering the UK will skid dangerously close to a recession).
In Australia , PPI came in lower for q2 rising to 1.0% q/q well below the expected 1.6% q/q, however the data does show an acceleration of inflation pressures. While PPI is not directly correlated with CPI it illustrates that inflation is still a concern and gave the Aud a slight boost in early trading.
No major events or data scheduled for release in the UK or Eurozone.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9895 R 2: 0.9849 R 1: 0.9818 CURRENT: 0.9755 S 1: 0.9675 S 2: 0.9664 S 3: 0.9597
EURJPY R 3: 170.00 R 2: 169.67 R 1: 169.18 CURRENT: 169.17 S 1: 168.25 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3717 R 2: 1.3661 R 1: 1.3565 CURRENT: 1.3511 S 1: 1.3452 S 2: 1.3399 S 3: 1.3300
The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.
ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).
Profile regulatory information:
ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.
Usd was stable in the Asian session after being sold off in response to the FOMC meeting. EurUsd ranged between 1.5660 and 1.5685 while UsdJpy trended upwards from 107.75 to 108.05. Carry trades continued to exhibit strong momentum with EurJpy finally breaking thru 168.80 resistance, climbing to 169.40 and AudJpy followed that trend by breaking thru 103.48 resistance, reaching new highs at 103.69. In addition, given the fact that the EurJpy has historically proven to be a good indicator of risk appetite we expect continued demand of yield driven currency trades.
US stocks ended higher Wednesday after oil prices fell and the Fed left rates unchanged at 2%. The major indexes retreated from their post-FOMC highs in late-afternoon trading, with the Dow barely closing in positive territory. Asian markets trading higher this morning after the Fed said downside risks to growth appear to have diminished and gave no signs that it will raise interest rates anytime soon. Sony & Nintendo led the advancers. Oil prices pulled back after an unexpected increase in crude stockpiles but pared their losses after the Fed statement; the Aug '08 contract was down $2.45 to $134.55. Gold prices closed lower on the back of lower oil prices; the most active was the Aug '08 contract down $9.30 to $882.30. We also saw Sep '08 silver -13.2 ¢ at $16.607/oz.
Yesterday the Fed left rates unchanged at 2.00% and the statement showed the downside risks have diminished slightly and upside inflation risks have increased. Overall the statement had a less hawkish tone then what the market was expecting and failed to indicate that the fed is in any real hurry to begin hiking rates. As expected Fisher voted for an immediate hike (on the record saying the fed shouldn’t have moved below 3.5%). What was interesting and perhaps the strongest signal to the market that rate expectation have become over done was Plossers vote to hold rates along with the majority. In addition, the lack of assessment by the Fed of how inflation measured against growth ie which measurement would steer the Fed monetary policy suggested again that members are in no rush to hike given the unsettled domestic condition. With both rate cuts and hikes off the table in the near term much depends on economic data. We currently are not expecting much for the US and believe data will point to an economy just getting by but with significant downside risk. This should keep the Usd under pressure and we are watching for EurUsd to begin creeping upwards.
While data out of New Zealand has little monetary policy effect, a wider Current account deficit was not what official were hoping for (declined to 2.160bn deficit in Q1 from 3.410bn in Q1). Account deficit GDP ratio at 7.8%. Net income deficits worsened while exports outstripped imports.
Austria data was mixed with Conference Board indicators printed higher then expected at 0.3% vs. -0.4% while job vacancies rose 3.4% after a drop in April of -2.5%.
In the UK five members of the MPC will testify to the treasury committee on May inflation report (not a position we envy). This should be a good time for the markets to receive some clarity regarding how seriously the members are considering a rate hike. Especially given last weeks mixed communications signals. But overall we expect that we will see a diverse view of how each member views the inflation verse growth situation.
Daily Forex Pivot Point AUDUSD R 3: 0.9655 R 2: 0.9648 R 1: 0.9604 CURRENT: 0.9578 S 1: 0.9490 S 2: 0.9448 S 3: 0.9405
EURJPY R 3: 171.00 R 2: 170.00 R 1: 169.15 CURRENT: 169.13 S 1: 166.77 S 2: 166.00 S 3: 165.51
USDSGD R 3: 1.3850 R 2: 1.3827 R 1: 1.3730 CURRENT: 1.3666 S 1: 1.3635 S 2: 1.3580 S 3: 1.3554
ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders.
Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment.
ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services.
A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section
ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.
Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.
FX markets were unusually calm in the Asian session as markets await the news from the FOMC meeting. EurUsd was stuck in a 10 pip range for most of the session trading from 1.5565 to 1.5577 before breaking to the downside as Europe prepared to open. UsdJpy provided little excitement ranging from 107.67 to 107.94 despite trade data showing that exports jumped a whopping 3.7%. GBP traded between 1.9695 and 1.9712 as it followed the rest of the currencies against the USD. Carry trades eased slightly from their elevated levels with EurJpy falling to 167.64 & AudJpy 102.90.
Stocks ended up lower after a choppy session Tuesday in the wake of consumer confidence data that fell to a 16 month low in June and after UBS’s profit warning. Asian markets are mostly trading down this morning due to a fall in metal prices that weighed heavily on the mining companies. Japanese stocks were lower on the back of default concerns around developer and consumer-finance companies. Oil prices closed higher, but below the day’s peak of near $139, ahead of today’s rate announcement and US petroleum inventory data. The Aug '08 contract is up $0.26 to $137.00. Gold closed with gains, as weakness in the dollar underpinned demand for the precious metal; the most active Aug '08 contract up $4.40 to $891.60 and Sep '08 silver -15.7 ¢ at $16.739/oz.
In New Zealand The Westpac consumer confidence index fell sharply from 96.5 to 81.7 and is just above the extreme lows recorded in the early 90's recession. The RBNZ was looking for more evidence of weakness in the household sector and this clearly helps build a case. We expect the central bank to begin cutting in the fall.
If you haven’t heard already the FOMC will be announcing their rate decisions and releasing an accompanying statement later today. We are inline with market expectation and believe the Fed will hold rates at 2.00%. We expect some slight changes in the accompanying statement specifically regarding inflation and inflation expectations, however we are less hawkish then most. On the growth side, better then expected retail sales, inventories and external trade indicates that GDP will just miss contracting in Q2, while both ISM manufacturing and non-Manu have strengthened in recent months. However, we expect the downside risk to the US economy, which has been highlighted by a string of soft housing, consumer confidence data, and the decline in households’ real incomes and wealth shrinking to influence the Fed decision (we are expecting 1-2 members to vote for a hike). Overall we expect the market to be slightly disappointed by the dovish tone and lack of willingness to pre commit to any rate hike near term. Should our base scenario prove correct we should see some Usd weakness as the 60bp already priced in for 2008 looks over done.
However, it should be noted that recently The ECB has been trying to pour cold water on recent comments that there will be a more aggressive rate increasing policy by saying they have not spoken about a series of rate hikes in the Eurozone. Basically it seems that policy makers at the ECB are concerned that investors have jumped the gun and that the latest data could make it harder to raise rates that previously thought.
In addition to the FOMC, the Norge Bank (Poland Central bank is also releasing and are expect to raise 25bp to 6.00%) will also announce rates and publish its monetary policy report today. Risk is slightly skewed to a hold, but with 40% of economists that were polled looking for a hike of 25bp this will be a close one to call. We are expected a 25bp hike in the next 6 months, however this will not be the meeting. We expect the MPR to show inflation projection being revised upward which keep the NOK supported.
Daily Forex Pivot Point AUDUSD R 3: 0.9655 R 2: 0.9648 R 1: 0.9588 CURRENT: 0.9555 S 1: 0.9490 S 2: 0.9449 S 3: 0.9405
EURJPY R 3: 170.00 R 2: 169.10 R 1: 168.39 CURRENT: 212.36 S 1: 166.78 S 2: 166.00 S 3: 165.53
USDSGD R 3: 1.3850 R 2: 1.3827 R 1: 1.3730 CURRENT: 1.3681 S 1: 1.3634 S 2: 1.3580 S 3: 1.3554
ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders.
Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment.
ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services.
A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section
ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.
Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.
The Central Bank of Chile will be buying the U.S. dollars in 2008 in order to stimulate the economy by the weaker national currency.
This year, starting April 14 Chile’s central bank will be buying $50 million every day on the Forex market to increase the overal country’s currency reserves from current $18 billion to $26 billion.
This step is rather controversial as the weakening of the peso will spur the consumer prices, while the inflation in Chile is already at a highest high level since 1996. CPI was at 8.4% in March (year-to-year) with the central bank’s target value between 2% and 4%.
On the other hand, weaker peso will bust the competitiveness of the exporting companies, increasing the economy output growth. Chile is a very export-orientated country with a large part of copper in the national export. Copper is sold for U.S. dollars and, with a cheaper peso, costs of production will remain low.
Although, the dollar purchasing process probably won’t affect the U.S. dollar rate against the other currencies, as it will be performed rather slowly, without sharp interventions, it may create some additional demand that will keep dollar from the fast falls during the volatile sessions.
ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders.
Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment.
ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services.
A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section
ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.
Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.
Forex, Fx or Foreign Exchange Market is a network of the largest financial institutions in the world such as central banks, commercial banks, and other financial institutions, corporate customers and forex brokers, where foreign currency is bought and sold.
Daily forex trading in traditional forex exchange is very largeand was estimated at USD 1.5 trillion in 1998.
The forex market is a 24 hour global forex marketthat works all week except Saturdays and Sundays with no opening or closing hours.
The four largest forex centers in the world are London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore. Usually forex trading is brisk in North America mornings, or afternoons in Europe due to both markets being open at the same time and usually due to new US economic data being released.
The forex trading markets regularly trade a very wide range of currencies; however the majority of forex transactions are in five major currencies: the US Dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, the Yen and the Swiss Frank. The greatest number of forex currency trades are made against the US Dollar.
ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders.
Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment.
ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services.
A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section
ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.
Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.