Showing posts with label NEW YORK. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NEW YORK. Show all posts

8.18.2008

USD Against EUR

Dollar posted 5-week gains against Euro
News and Events:
The Dollar jumped to a 6-month high against the Euro on Friday, helped by another drop in oil prices and growing views the US economic slowdown may be bottoming while growth in the euro zone stalls. It also posted a fifth week of gains as investors shifted their view on the global economy's ability to withstand a downturn initiated in the United States.

Data in the US on Friday showed an unexpected rise in manufacturing activity in the New York state area and an increase in industrial output and consumer confidence. By contrast, reports on Thursday showed the euro zone economy contracted in Q2 for the first time since the common currency's inception.

A steep drop in commodity prices also has lent support to the Dollar easing concern about the US economic outlook in the second half of the year. Crude oil prices slid further on Friday and ended 0.9% lower at 113.90 per barrel.

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7.17.2008

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 17 July 2008

Usd has been able to hold gain in the Asian session as risk appetite slowly crept back into the markets. EurUsd was range bound between 1.5801 – 1.5868 while UsdJpy bounced around the 104.70 - 105.30 levels. Jpy fueled carry trades saw renewed buying with AudJpy and EurJpy trending upward to 102.76 and 166.73. EM currencies also got a boost with UsdMxn and EurPln sliding to 10.2200 and 3.2083. The Usd was help as oil prices dropped sharply as EIA data showed an unexpected rise in
WASHINGTON - MARCH 30:  Federal Reserve Chairm... inventories.

The Fed minutes released yesterday were perhaps slightly more hawkish then the market had anticipated. While members were clearly apprehensive with placing inflation worries over growth concerns, the minutes did state "the next change in the stance of policy could well be an increase in the funds rate". Note, that given the rapid evolution of events, these minutes are old news and therefore the weight we attached should be limited. Especially considering at the time of the FOMC meeting there was a general feeling that the US was stabilizing (which we know now is not the case). With yesterdays sharp increase in Junes headline inflation (5.0% vs. 4.5% exp) the Fed will have to stay diligent but given the downside risk to growth it would be irresponsible for the Fed to tighten. We expected the pause in Usd volatility will be short lived as uncertainty around domestic economic conditions, inflation and unsettled GSEs position are still very much outstanding.

With no major data to be released in the UK, Eurozone todays movement will be purely based on sentiment and positioning. A good way to guage what the fx market is thinking. In addition, keep an eye on other assets classes such as the equity market and energy prices for directional confirmation.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9895
R 2: 0.9850
R 1: 0.9817
CURRENT: 0.9767
S 1: 0.9709
S 2: 0.9664
S 3: 0.9597

EURJPY
R 3: 169.67
R 2: 168.95
R 1: 166.85
CURRENT: 167.16
S 1: 165.23
S 2: 164.75
S 3: 163.60

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3717
R 2: 1.3660
R 1: 1.3565
CURRENT: 1.3517
S 1: 1.3451
S 2: 1.3399
S 3: 1.3300
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