Showing posts with label US. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US. Show all posts

8.25.2008

Dollar rose Friday helped by lower Crude Oil prices and Warren Buffer comments

The Dollar surged on Friday, recovering from the previous day's losses, as gloomy British growth data backed views of a slowing global economy and raised prospects of interest rate cuts outside the United States. A sharp drop in US crude oil prices to below $115 per barrel and comments by influential investor Warren Buffett that he has no bets against the Dollar also added to the US currency's upward momentum. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments that a stable Dollar and falling commodities should help slow inflation this year and next. His remarks on Friday prompted analysts to reduce expectations of a US interest rate increase this year.


News and Events:

The Dollar surged on Friday, recovering from the previous day's losses, as gloomy British growth data backed views of a slowing global economy and raised prospects of interest rate cuts outside the United States.

A sharp drop in US crude oil prices to below $115 per barrel and comments by influential investor Warren Buffett that he has no bets against the Dollar also added to the US currency's upward momentum.

UK data showed the British economy stalled on Q2, suggesting a recession might be looming, and added to the outlook of a slowing European economy. It raised the possibility of European Central Bank and Bank of England monetary easing.

EurUsd dropped to a session low of 1.4758, edging toward a six-month low hit earlier last week at 1.4631. It was last trading at 1.4788, down 0.68%. UsdJpy jumped 1.52% to 110.09. GbpUsd dropped 1.32% to 1.8517. UsdChf rose 1.06% to 1.0988.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments that a stable Dollar and falling commodities should help slow inflation this year and next. Bernanke's remarks at an annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, prompted analysts to reduce expectations of a US interest rate increase this year, which could diminish the Dollar's appeal to investors. But analysts said even without an interest rate hike this year, the Dollar would probably continue to recover.

Persistent problems at US mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and speculation over the future of investment bank Lehman Brothers could make the road to recovery difficult.




Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

00:00 GBP Market Holiday
07:30 DKK August Consumer confidence -8 vs -9.7
07:30 SEK July Trade balance 8.2b (mom)
09:00 EUR June Industrial new orders -6.3% vs -4.4% (yoy)
12:30 USD July National Activity Index -0.6
14:00 USD Existing home sale 4.92m vs 4.86m
22:45 NZD Merchandise trade 4b vs 3.81b
22:45 NZD Merchandise trade – expo 3.44b vs 3.59
22:45 NZD Trade Balance Month -526m vs -223m
22:45 NZD Trade Balance Year -4.2b vs -4.48b


The Risk Today:

EurUsd: Market dropped as low as 1.4631 last week, new initial support. Further weakness will put the focus on strong support 1.4366 22nd January low. On the upside, only a return over 1.5000 and 1.5500 will release actual pressure and put key initial resistance 1.6000 into focus. Still a break up there would open the way to Trendline resistance 1.6200.

GbpUsd: Cable hit 2.0158 high 6-weeks ago and 1.8505 low last Friday. On the downside, further weakness would open the way down to 1.8395 end July 2006 low and maybe 1.8091 June 2006 low. Initial support holds 1.8414 today low. On the upside, initial resistance holds 1.8795 last week high. Former support 1.9363 holds also strong resistance. Key level holds 2.0100 resistance.

UsdJpy: Last 6-weeks recovery pushed the market up to 110.67 high. Further advance would open the way toward 111.92 early January high. On the downside, a return below 108.59 former resistance and 108.14 last week low will undermine the current advance. Profit taking might bring back down to 105 level and may open the way toward 102.73 support and 100 pivot point. Initial support holds 108.14 Thursday low.

UsdChf: Continuous Dollar strength consolidated over 1.0800 last week and hit 1.1041 6-months high on last Wednesday. Initial resistance holds 1.1107 13th February high. Strong resistance holds 1.1593 December 2007 high. On the downside, initial support holds 1.0863. Only renewed weakness below 1.0500 and 1.0375 would retest the 1.0000 pivot point and may open the way toward 0.9637 17th March low.


Resistance and Support:

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The Return of History

The fall of the euro from the heights does not mean that traders have resigned from recent currency history. Even after its unprecedented fall the united currency has only now returned to the middle of its rising trend against the dollar that has prevailed for six and a half years, since early 2002.

Very little in the Eurozone economic situation or world economic history had warranted the euro’s presence north of 1.5500. But nothing in the United States present economic condition indicates that it has broken its long term disability against the euro.

The Eurozone economies were never as immune to the sub prime contagion as dollar detractors proclaimed. And they have proven equally susceptible if not more to economic damage from high energy prices. But neither is the United States bound to respond to 325 basis points of central bank rate reductions with its usual vigor and in the normal time frame of six months to a year.

The old scenario which had the European Monetary Union (EMU) proceeding with moderate economic growth and a steady or hiking European Central Bank (ECB) paired with a recessionary America and an easing Federal Reserve has been abandoned. The new assumption has the benefit of initial proof, negative GDP in the Eurozone second quarter and positive US results, but it is essentially untested.

The American economy retains considerable known problems: the prolonged housing slump, the drag from gasoline and energy prices, the contraction of commercial credit; and several dangerous unknowns: the possibility of large failures in the financial system, a return to $140 or higher oil prices, and the degree to which the economy was bolstered by the Federal cash stimulus in the second quarter. Any one or combination of these could easily derail what positive economic momentum exists in the US. There is also the uncertainty attached to the presidential election and the candidates’ competing and quite different economic prescriptions. The proposed economic plans of each party stress voter friendly initiatives; few will be good for the dollar.

The ECB governors seem a bit surprised that mundane economic reality still applies to them. It was a scant three months ago when government and central bank officials were proclaiming their expectations for continued moderate economic growth in 2008. The Europeans have their share of problems as well. If the two major countries, Germany and France are not suffering the aftermath of a real estate bubble, that is not true of some of the smaller members, primarily Spain and Ireland. Energy costs are as great a drag on economic well being as they are in the States and they certainly have a greater effect on consumer outlook and spending. Russia, newly assertive and unmistakably threatening, sits astride European energy supplies, supplies for which there are no domestic alternatives. Finally any worldwide financial catastrophes will leave casualties in Europe, Asia, and America equally.

The change in economic outlook in the EMU has been enough to boost the dollar substantially as it put paid to unrealistic expectations for European autarky.

It is now the US economy that is expected to sustain a recovery first, or at least to grow faster than its European counterpart. Neither central bank is in a position to change its rate policy.

The ECB is constrained by inflation, its own rhetorical history, and institutional credibility. The members of the ECB governing board and President Trichet are intelligent, analytical and persuasive individuals. In setting a public inflation target they and their predecessors had to have known that a time might come when they would be forced to choose between inflation control and economic growth. That time is now. If the pending recession, which Trichet warned about six weeks ago, could not prompt an adjustment of ECB policy, another quarter of negative growth will not do so.

Likewise, the Federal Reserve cannot raise rates to combat 5.6% inflation. The US economy is weak, 2nd quarter GDP notwithstanding, with glaring vulnerabilities in finance and energy costs. For the next few months central bank rate policy is not likely to be the determining factor in the relation between the euro and the dollar.

The debunking of one unrealistic assumption in Europe does not mean another, almost equally unrealistic, the return of the US to robust growth, is about to happen. From November until February the market traded back and forth between 1.4400 and 1.4900. That is precisely the position now. A prolonged muddle could be ahead while traders wait for statistics to resolve their questions. The dollar run is not over, but its continuation will require further proof. An extension of dollar strength will have to go quite a bit further, to below 1.4000, before its six year fall against the euro can be broken. That is not a project that will be completed in the next few months.

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8.21.2008

Slow Growth In EURO

Market is looking for Euro-zone and Britain for more evidence of slowing growth.
News and Events:
The Dollar rose on Wednesday, reversing a two-day losing markets, supported by views that slowing global economic growth would prompt a wave of interest rate cuts outside the United States. It gained in quiet trade despite a rebound in Crude Oil prices to $115.51 a barrel.

Data from Europe and Japan are increasingly pointing to deterioration in the growth outlook for those regions, leading
investors to anticipate early rate cuts from both the European
Central Bank and the Bank of England.

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There are worries that US home finance providers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may need a government bailout.

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8.20.2008

USD Rise Again

Crude Rises on hurricane fears in the US, Dollar rises after yesterdays data-led correction
News and Events:
US Housing starts initiated a Dollar correction against majors yesterday, while hurricane fears in the U.S pushed Crude higher. Gold rose above $810/o.z on both strong demand and dollar slump. Today's trading to be influenced by continued dollar strength and news from Canada on retail sales and leading indicators.

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8.18.2008

USD Against EUR

Dollar posted 5-week gains against Euro
News and Events:
The Dollar jumped to a 6-month high against the Euro on Friday, helped by another drop in oil prices and growing views the US economic slowdown may be bottoming while growth in the euro zone stalls. It also posted a fifth week of gains as investors shifted their view on the global economy's ability to withstand a downturn initiated in the United States.

Data in the US on Friday showed an unexpected rise in manufacturing activity in the New York state area and an increase in industrial output and consumer confidence. By contrast, reports on Thursday showed the euro zone economy contracted in Q2 for the first time since the common currency's inception.

A steep drop in commodity prices also has lent support to the Dollar easing concern about the US economic outlook in the second half of the year. Crude oil prices slid further on Friday and ended 0.9% lower at 113.90 per barrel.

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8.15.2008

Weakness In Oil Prices | ForexGen Newsletter

Renewed weakness in oil prices and a break of 1.4850

News and Events:
The Dollar rallied to an almost six-month high against the Euro on Thursday amid growing concern over euro zone economic weakness and accelerating inflation in the United States.

Traders sold the Euro after reports showed contraction in the Euro zone's economy in the second quarter. The Euro zone single currency accelerated its losses and fell below 1.4800 after it broke through key technical levels, analysts said. Government data showed US consumer prices rose at twice the rate expected in July. Analysts said higher prices in the short term may help boost the case for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, although they warned that over time, inflation would hurt the economy.

Oil prices are down more than $30 from a record high 145.45 hit in
July. Crude oil settled 1.26% lower on Thursday at $114.93 a barrel.

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ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.


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8.12.2008

Economic Slowdown In Europe

Signs of economic slowdown in Europe, Asia and Australia reduced outlooks for higher interest rates and boosted demand for Dollar
News and Events:
The Dollar rallied to a five-and-a-half month high against the Euro on Monday, boosted by another drop in Crude Oil prices and speculation that the US economy slowdown was spreading worldwide. Mounting signs of economic difficulties in Europe, Asia and Australia have diminished prospects of higher interest rates outside the United States, bolstering demand for the Dollar.

The euro briefly recouped some of its losses after European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher warned that policy-makers remained focused on taming high inflation. Liebscher told Market News International that inflation risks remained to the upside in the medium term and that there is no room for "complacency" on euro zone interest rates and inflation.

Declining Oil prices helped ease worries about the impact of higher energy costs on the US economy and also helped boost demand for the greenback.

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ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.
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8.06.2008

FOMC Expected Rates

FOMC Kept Rate Steady At 2% As Expected

News and Events:
The Dollar climbed to seven-week peaks against the Euro and major currencies on Tuesday, as oil prices plunged and the Federal Reserve maintained its focus on slowing persistent US inflation pressure in the economy.

Analysts said Tuesday's Fed statement was more balanced than what the market had expected, as it expressed concern about both economic growth and inflation. Another comment showed the Fed statement does not point to one clear rate path.

The drop to a three-month trough of $118 per barrel helped ease fears that high energy prices will continue to weigh on the US economy at a time consumer prices are showing an unexpectedly fast rise.

AudUsd was among the weakest performers on Tuesday, falling to a four-month low at 0.9133.
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 06/08/2008

The Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session, as the market digested the FOMC decision to hold rates at 2.00%. The EurUsd gained from 1.5450 to 1.5509, while the UsdJpy ranged between 108.20 to 108.47. The Jpy fueled carry tradesWall Street Sign. performed well, with EurJpy piercing through 168.00 support and the TryJpy reached a 7 month high at 94.11. Wall Street rallied on the Fed decision, with the Dow up 2.93% and a majority of Asian regional indexes are following. The European stock markets are looking to open higher with FTSE futures trading up 2.78%. The commodity bubble continues to deflate with crude wti trading below the psychological $120.00bll and currently at $118.83bll.

The FOMC decision to hold rates at 2.00% was really not a surprise. However, the fact that Fed member ultra hawk Plosser didn’t join Fisher in voting for a hike was notable. The lack of additional votes subtly suggests that members view the current rate level as correct and downside risks to economic growth as still fragile. The accompanying statement was little changed, with acknowledgement that commodity prices are declining, changing the last statement wording in regard to energy prices from “continued increases” to just “elevated”. With commodity prices falling and inflation expectations softening, and while the risks to US growth still persist (it would be extraordinary for the Fed to raise when payrolls are collapsing), we don’t expect the Fed to act any time soon. For this week, the fate of the Usd lies in the outcome of Thursday ECB rate decision.

AUDUSD

R 3: 0.9419
R 2: 0.9347
R 1: 0.9301


CURRENT: 0.9190

S 1: 0.9134
S 2: 0.9091
S 3: 0.9032

EURJPY


R 3: 169.73
R 2: 169.19
R 1: 168.79


CURRENT: 168.05

S 1: 166.86
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD


R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3817


CURRENT: 1.3779

S 1: 1.3651
S 2: 1.3606
S 3: 1.3567


Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

8.05.2008

EUR/USD Narrow Ranges

Euro/Dollar would trade in narrow ranges before Fed’s decision today and ECB meeting on Thursday

News and Events:

The Dollar rose against the Yen on Monday as the Oil price's drop to a three-month low and some better US economic data generated optimism about the economy outlook. But caution ahead of Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting to decide on US interest rates saw the Dollar ease against the Euro.

Data last week showed that the US economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.9% in Q2, up from 0.9% in Q1 of 2008. That raised outlook of higher US interest rates by the end of the year. But analysts generally expect the Fed to leave its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 2% on Tuesday and deliver a neutral statement on future policy.

Traders will also await rate decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's statement may focus on rate-raising possibility.

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.
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8.04.2008

Forex News | Dollar News


Dollar rallied last week on better economic data and lower stress in financial markets
News and Events:
The Dollar climbed to five-week peaks against the Euro and three-week highs against the Sterling on Friday as better-than-expected economic data reduced worries about a much sharper slowdown. The Yen gained broadly helped by stress in financial markets on news that General Motors had hefty losses in Q2. That dragged US stocks lower and triggered safe-haven bids for Treasuries. Year on year change in the US dollar consumer ...

Friday's data showed that US employers eliminated 51k jobs in July, lower than market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75k. A separate report said US factory activity was unchanged in July, compared with the previous month, but above market forecasts.

Investors widely expect the Fed's policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 2% when it meets on Tuesday.
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

7.31.2008

Forex Market Overview


Forex Market Overview 31 July 2008


The Usd traded sideways in Asian session, after the stronger ADP figures and rally on Wall Street pushed the greenback higher. The EurUsd traded in a 1.5525 to 1.5602 range, while the UsdJpy traded between 107.80 and 108.34. US stocks gained, as ADP pointed to a 9k gain vs. -60k, giving hope that Friday's NFP will prove stronger then the -75k expected. The S&P gained 1.7% and 2 year Ts dropped by 2.6%. Crude rallied to $126.88brl, but with global demand slowing we expected upside to be limited.
Elaborate marble facade of NYSE as seen from t...

Yesterday's decision by the Turkish Constitutional Court not to close the AKP was clearly seen as positive for markets, with Try and equities gaining on the report (with a positive gap at the open today). While the verdict has not ended all domestic concerns, it will go a long way to ease investors concerns.

The Japanese Industrial production fell by -2.0% m/m vs. -1.7% exp. The government has already cut forecasts for industrial output, as surveys point to further weakness ahead.

The European Session will be focused on Eurozone's July flash CPI. The market is expecting a new record high of 4.1% and there is little evidence to suggest otherwise. This figure, combined with the sharp drop in key Economic Sentiment Indicator, will mean at some point soon the ECB will have to make a tough choice. Inflation or Growth.


Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9637
R 2: 0.9590
R 1: 0.9528
CURRENT: 0.9438
S 1: 0.9404
S 2: 0.9328
S 3: 0.9276

EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 168.27
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3717
CURRENT: 1.3685
S 1: 1.3606
S 2: 1.3567
S 3: 1.3501
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.
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Forex Market ADP Report

FX market focus on tomorrow Non-farm payrolls after ADP report gave a positive picture
News and Events:
The US dollar continued its recovery of the past ten days on Wednesday, helped by very good private sector jobs report for July and ongoing efforts from central bank officials to ease stress inPhoto taken by myself financial markets. But this gain has been limited by a $4 a barrel rebound in crude oil prices after data showed an unexpected decline in US gasoline inventories last week.

Forex is focusing on tomorrow non-farm payrolls. Despite the positive employment picture from ADP Employer Services report, few analysts believe market may reverse gains on Friday's non-farm payrolls report.

Steps by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and their Swiss counterpart to extend liquidity offers investment banks through January 2009 and introduce a new term auction facility also contributed to overall positive sentiment on the Dollar.
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

The Forex Market Today

The Markets Today Thursday 31 July 2008 / 10:50h CET

EUR/USD

1.5610


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

We remain Dollar bullish. 1.5625 initial resistance, trend-line at 1.5665 – sell tops, expect a dip to 1.5500, target 1.5350 by tomorrow.

A clear break of 1.5665 stops the immediate bearish move and can see the pair recover to 1.5750 key.

1.5590 MINOR

1.5625 MINOR

1.5525 STRONG

1.5665 TREND

1.5490 STRONG

1.5750 KEY


GBP/USD

1.9805


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Cable is still holding the 1.9800 level, but the old bullish trend has been crossed long ago and we are waiting for a fall to 1.9660 or lower.

Initial resistance 1.9830 broken risks a rise to 1.9915 key.

1.9765 STRONG

1.9830 STRONG

1.9720 MINOR

1.9915 KEY

1.9660 STRONG

2.0000 STRONG


USD/JPY

108.20


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

As long as it remains above 108.05 we like to keep longs, target remains 110.

A break of 108.05 risks 107.70, an hourly close lower stops the bullish move and risks a set-back to 106.75

108.05 TREND

108.30 MINOR

107.70 STRONG

108.50 STRONG

106.75 KEY

108.90 MINOR


USD/CHF

1.0470


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

It maintains very high levels and is set to cross into the 1.05 handle for a push towards 1.0660

Watch 1.0445 initial support, a break there risks a set-back to trend-line at 1.0345

1.0445 STRONG

1.0500 MINOR

1.0405 MINOR

1.0540 MINOR

1.0345 TREND

1.0660 TARGET


XAU/USD

912.00


EXPECTATION

THE RISK

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Gold fell and recovered but is unable to cross the old 917 key level. Stay short, we look for another fall towards 885

An hourly close above 917 can see Gold recover up to 930

906 MINOR

917 STRONG

895 STRONG

925 MINOR

885 TARGET

933 KEY

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

7.30.2008

Forex Market Overview

Notes

Forex Market Overview 30 July 2008

The Usd was higher in Asian session, as a combination of stronger bank stocks and lower crude prices gave the greenback a broad based boost. The EurUsd slid to 1.5554 from 1.5599, while UsdJpy was able reversed its downward trend in early Asia , rebounding to 108.20 from 107.88. The NzdUsd broke below critical 0.7368 support, trading to session lows of 0.7333, as bad news from the Kiwi financial sector and lower commodity prices weighed on the Nzd. Jpy fueled carry trades were range bound, despite lower volatility, with the EurJpy trading between 213.80 and 214.25. Wall Street rallied strongly, with the Dow up 2.39% and Asian regional indexes are following, with the Hang Seng currently up 2.05%. Lower commodities price across the board help equities, with wti crude trading at $121.81bbl and gold at $916.11oz.

Oil was sold heavily, as worries over slowing demand ahead of today's inventory data and remarks by OPEC president Khelil, cautioning that crude prices could fall to $70bbl-$80bbl (long term) as the greenback goes through a period of strength. There is evidence in trading momentum and a growing sense of optimism that the markets are actively looking for the US economy to stabilize and for the Usd to begin its move towards a period of strength.

In Japan, the Industrial production for June dropped m/m - 2.0% vs.
-1.7% exp. The Japanese government has trimmed its forecast for industrial output, conceded the sector is slowing, as surveys show further signs of weakness up ahead.

In New Zealand, RBNZ Governor Bollard spoke on the subject of inflation targeting. Outside the core subject, the key take away was when he mentioned that he sees 'plenty of room' for rates to drop further. While the RBNZ has already signaled their intention to ease further, Bollard's remarks today are the most unambiguous reference yet that the market will see significantly lower rates. We see a significant period of Nzd weakness and perhaps the main rational for any support seems to be coming from Japanese margin traders, who are extensively long Nzd.

In the European Session, the market will be focused on July's EC Economic Sentiment Indicator. We are expecting this figure to continue the string of negative data from the Eurozone, especially given the sharp fall in industrial confidence and slump in PMI survey.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9637
R 2: 0.9590
R 1: 0.9528
CURRENT: 0.9484
S 1: 0.9451
S 2: 0.9404
S 3: 0.9328

EURJPY
R 3: 171.80
R 2: 171.05
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 168.41
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3715
CURRENT: 1.3688
S 1: 1.3567
S 2: 1.3500
S 3: 1.3448
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7.25.2008

Dollar Under Pressure

Dollar was under pressure after disappointing housing sector news
News and Events:
The Dollar fell against the Yen on Thursday, dragged down by disappointing news in the US housing sector and steep losses on Wall Street. However, the Dollar was slightly higher against the Euro, which came under pressure as soft data cooled expectations of higher euro-zone interest rates. The Ifo report followed data showing declines in manufacturing and service sector activity in France, Germany and the wider euro zone.

Modest gains in Oil prices also weighed on the Dollar on Thursday. US crude futures rose 0.8% to 125.50 per barrel. The biggest mover among major currencies on Thursday was
Sterling, which fell sharply against the Euro and Dollar on the 3.9% fall in June UK retail sales.
The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.

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7.23.2008

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 23 July 2008

The Usd consolidated gains in the Asian session as hawkish comments from US officials and oil falling sharply helped boost the Usd. The EurUsd stayed in a tight range from 1.5775 to 1.5798, while the UsdJpy saw choppy trading between 107.16 to 107.38. The NzdUsd slipped to 0.7750, as traders speculate on an earlier than expected rate cut. The AudUsd also lost ground, despite the higher then expected inflation reading. The US equity market shrugged off poor earnings to close up and Asian equities are following. Commodities still are soft with gold down -1.65% to 945.68oz and wti crude at 127.74, as the declining global growth story gains traction and damped demand of inflation hedges.

It was Fed’s Plosser ultra hawkish comment that added momentum to the Usd buying frenzy yesterday (part of a recent trend of hawkish comments from Fisher, Hoenig, Stern & Lacker but divergent from Bernanke’s stated views). Stating "We will need to reverse course - the exact timing depends on how the economy evolves, but I anticipate the reversal will need to be started sooner rather than later. And I believe it will likely need to begin before either the labor market or the financial markets have completely turned around." The comment “before either the labor market or financial market has completely turned around” was unprecedented, since the Fed has never raised rates while payrolls shown a negative trend. As we stated yesterday in our Asian session, we had expected rhetoric from policy makers to affect FX sentiment in the ultra short term and expect the aggressive Usd buying to reverse intraday.

Australian CPI released today rose quicker than the market had expected by 1.5% q/q vs. 1.2% exp (lifting y/y to 4.5% vs. 4.2% exp). However, the RBA preferred measure rose by q2 1.2% q/q, which was unchanged from previous reading. We expect the RBA to be on hold for the remainder of the year, as moderating growth should help ease inflationary pressures.

The highlight of the European session will be the UK MPC minutes for July. There are mounting signs that the MPC might have slightly shifted towards a growth focus. June’s minutes showed that members had discussed further tightening and, since then, all measures of inflation have increased (ppi, cpi and inflation expectations). However, much of this deterioration was expected. What has been unexpected was the rate of moderation in the real economy and the genuine risk the UK might slip into a recession. We expect Blanchflower to have voted for a cut (as always), but the market might get a surprise from Kate Barker, a good proxy for general sentiment. With the Gbp trading at 1.9900 on yield differentials, any real or perceived shift could lead to a considerable sell-off.

14.00gmt - Fed's Mishkin speaks
16.15gmt - Fed's Kohn speaks

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9895
R 2: 0.9850
R 1: 0.9818
CURRENT: 0.9673
S 1: 0.9675
S 2: 0.9665
S 3: 0.9597

EURJPY
R 3: 171.07
R 2: 170.00
R 1: 169.92
CURRENT: 169.78
S 1: 168.25
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3717
R 2: 1.3660
R 1: 1.3597
CURRENT: 1.3606
S 1: 1.3452
S 2: 1.3395
S 3: 1.3300
The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.

ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).

Profile regulatory information:

ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.

7.22.2008

USA Financial System Problems

Forex market believe the worst of the problems in the US financial system are not yet over
News and Events:
The Dollar fell near a record low against the Euro as investors believe the worst of the problems in the US financial system are not yet over. While the Dollar has recovered somewhat after better results than expected from big financial institutions such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, investors are awaiting more earnings reports this week.

With the economy suffering as the credit crisis hits the housing market and banks, expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year to curb inflation pressures are fading quickly, hurting the dollar.

The market's focus remains on a rescue plan for troubled US mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in an interview with CNBC that confidence in US capital markets and the US economy was the most important thing to support a strong Dollar.

The Euro may gain against the Yen as Japanese Investors ship more funds into higher-yielding currencies for better returns, with traders watching whether the single currency tops Monday's record high and reaches the 169.92 level.
The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.

ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).

Profile regulatory information:

ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.
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