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Yesterday the EURUSD bearish momentum seemed very limited. The trend line support on daily chart around 1.4695/1.4703 level should be the key level at this phase. A break to the downside could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4590. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4757 followed by 1.4807. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.4696
S2= 1.4639
S3= 1.4584
R1= 1.4808
R2= 1.4863
R3= 1.4920
GBPUSD Outlook Yesterday the GBPUSD made indecisive movement by opened and closed at almost the same price (1.8518 and 1.8526). My model goes mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.8450 followed by 1.8405. CCI seems rejecting the -100 line on 4h and daily chart suggesting the pair might have a strong support area at this phase. However, I think the pressure to the downside is not over yet.
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.8424
S2= 1.8322
S3= 1.8239
R1= 1.8609
R2= 1.8692
R3= 1.8794
USDJPY Outlook The USDJPY bullish momentum was rejected yesterday. The pair bottomed at 109.02 and closed at 109.30. Resistance level at 110.66 area seems to be a key level at this phase. My model goes mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 108.90 followed by 108.50. Initial resistance at 109.80. CCI in neutral area on all 3 time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 108.78
S2= 108.27
S3= 107.52
R1= 110.04
R2= 110.79
R3= 111.30
USDCHF Outlook The USDCHF is moving in ranging market between 1.1030 and 1.0840. We need a breakout to find a clearer direction. Immediate support is seen at 1.0950 followed by 1.0920. Initial resistance at 1.1030. An upside break from that level could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.1105 area. CCI in neutral area in all 3 time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.0907
S2= 1.0860
S3= 1.0798
R1= 1.1016
R2= 1.1078
R3= 1.1125
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Tue, 26th of August, 2008 By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)
EURUSD Outlook Yesterday the EURUSD bearish momentum seemed very limited. The trend line support on daily chart around 1.4695/1.4703 level should be the key level at this phase. A break to the downside could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4590. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4757 followed by 1.4807. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.4696
S2= 1.4639
S3= 1.4584
R1= 1.4808
R2= 1.4863
R3= 1.4920
GBPUSD Outlook Yesterday the GBPUSD made indecisive movement by opened and closed at almost the same price (1.8518 and 1.8526). My model goes mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.8450 followed by 1.8405. CCI seems rejecting the -100 line on 4h and daily chart suggesting the pair might have a strong support area at this phase. However, I think the pressure to the downside is not over yet.
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.8424
S2= 1.8322
S3= 1.8239
R1= 1.8609
R2= 1.8692
R3= 1.8794
USDJPY Outlook The USDJPY bullish momentum was rejected yesterday. The pair bottomed at 109.02 and closed at 109.30. Resistance level at 110.66 area seems to be a key level at this phase. My model goes mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 108.90 followed by 108.50. Initial resistance at 109.80. CCI in neutral area on all 3 time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 108.78
S2= 108.27
S3= 107.52
R1= 110.04
R2= 110.79
R3= 111.30
USDCHF Outlook The USDCHF is moving in ranging market between 1.1030 and 1.0840. We need a breakout to find a clearer direction. Immediate support is seen at 1.0950 followed by 1.0920. Initial resistance at 1.1030. An upside break from that level could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.1105 area. CCI in neutral area in all 3 time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.0907
S2= 1.0860
S3= 1.0798
R1= 1.1016
R2= 1.1078
R3= 1.1125
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ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
ForexGen offers a free trial Forex demo account that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.
Technical analysis-Comments G. Antonakos Head of Analysis Dept.
DISCLAIMER
1. The details and information included in the above analysis, are part of research based exclusively on currency charts and are of purely instructional and educational nature. None of the information featuring in the analysis can be considered as an invitation for opening positions in FOREX market or in the market of forward contracts or any securities listed on an organized or unorganized market.
2. We assume no responsibility for any kind of losses, profits or property loss resulting, in whole or in part, from acts that are based either directly or indirectly on the processing or the use of information, details and strategies, the reader may find in the analysis. The readers hold full responsibility for the use and the results of their actions.
3. The recipients of the analysis must acknowledge and accept that investment choices of any kind, especially concerning the FOREX market, contain risks (high, low and occasionally zero) of reduction or even loss of their investment. Therefore, they should always be cautious prior to any kind of action.
4. We reserve the right to change the terms and the characteristics of the analysis.
5. The contents of the analysis are solely intended for personal use. They may not be re-transmitted, reproduced, distributed, published, adapted, modified or assigned to third parties in any way whatsoever. Anyone having access to them is required to comply with the law provisions on the protection of third party intellectual property rights
Why ForexGen?
Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
ForexGen offers a free trial Forex demo account that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.
Technical analysis-Comments G. Antonakos Head of Analysis Dept.
DISCLAIMER
1. The details and information included in the above analysis, are part of research based exclusively on currency charts and are of purely instructional and educational nature. None of the information featuring in the analysis can be considered as an invitation for opening positions in FOREX market or in the market of forward contracts or any securities listed on an organized or unorganized market.
2. We assume no responsibility for any kind of losses, profits or property loss resulting, in whole or in part, from acts that are based either directly or indirectly on the processing or the use of information, details and strategies, the reader may find in the analysis. The readers hold full responsibility for the use and the results of their actions.
3. The recipients of the analysis must acknowledge and accept that investment choices of any kind, especially concerning the FOREX market, contain risks (high, low and occasionally zero) of reduction or even loss of their investment. Therefore, they should always be cautious prior to any kind of action.
4. We reserve the right to change the terms and the characteristics of the analysis.
5. The contents of the analysis are solely intended for personal use. They may not be re-transmitted, reproduced, distributed, published, adapted, modified or assigned to third parties in any way whatsoever. Anyone having access to them is required to comply with the law provisions on the protection of third party intellectual property rights
Why ForexGen?
Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
ForexGen offers a free trial Forex demo account that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.
Can you grade one level of support relative to another? Is a pause at a specific price point more important today than the same support level a month ago or 6 months ago? I think that there are ways to estimate one support level as more important than another. A good example is what is going on right now on the AUD/USD. Clearly we are at a long term support level having been here before in December and January during the last disruption in oil prices. However, what else is true is that we are at a level of extreme price movement based on a reading from the CCI or commodity channel index.
I use technical indicators like the CCI to grade support and resistance levels. When support coincides with a historically low level on the CCI where the market has reversed significantly before, I take note. That is the situation now. Support in the price action on the AUD/USD is occuring at the same time that we are clearing an extreme reading on the CCI. I have found that this is a good indicator that a continued trend is at risk and a bounce may occur.
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Comment : Euro formed an upward reaction last week, after the lows at 1.4600 area, reaching the area of 1.4900 on Thursday. Bears gained momentum at those levels, as expected, and euro was led towards 1.4700 area again. A move resumption to lower levels is possible, as we will see in the chart analysis below. After such a sharp decline, which didn’t give much opportunity to be followed, the first reaction towards 1.4900-1.5000 was expected to meet sellers, as we had mentioned in our analysis last week. We should keep in mind that the target that emerges from the double top formation, which was breached downwards, is found at 1.4500-50 area, while the basic trend line that links 2005 lows is reached at 1.4450 area.As we have mentioned in our previous analysis, the ranges for the decline are found at 1.4550 area, and the most extreme scenario-according to current facts- would be a reach of 1.4300 area. The most likely scenario would be a formation of an important low between 1.4450 and 1.4550. From those levels, a correction (from 1.6040 tops) around 38.2% and 50% would be possible and a retracement to the previous base of 1.5300, which should be tested as resistance, is likely. For the time being, the downward move is been continued from the 1.4900 reaction, and first targets are set at 1.4660-70 and 1.4620-40. A move to new lows will lead euro to the first important target area (1.4500-50), followed by the area of 1.4430-50. Intraday resistance emerges at 1.4760-70 and 1.4800-25, which is more important. This negative outlook will change after a move above Thursday’s tops at 1.4910…
TRADING EUR/USD SWING TRADING : Sell positions, that were opened at the retracement towards 1.4900, where our first targets were set, could have as first target a pullback to 1.4630 lows. The upper part could remain open for the reach of the basic targets at 1.4550 area. Below those levels buy opportunities will emerge for the short term, adding positions per 50-70 pips until 1.4370-00 area, with stops below 1.4300. First target will be at 1.5000 and according to the conditions that will be formed, we will follow until 1.5200-5300 area. INTRADAY TRADING : The short term trend after the reach of 1.4900 is bearish and should remain at least until the area of 1,4660-80 or 1,4600-30. We will use the first reaction towards the middle Bollinger in the hourly chart for intraday sell positions, adding more at 1.4790-4805, and stops above 1,4835. Short term (small) buy positions could be tried at 1,4660-70 and 1,4630-40 support levels, with tight stops and targets.
Comment : The beginning of the week finds the pound still weak, as the decline was continued on Friday, below the important support levels of 1.8500. Our targets are set at 1.8300-5, where our target after the break of the big consolidation (we can see it in the daily chart) and the two equal waves from 2007 tops (AB and CD in the daily chart) are found. As a result, after a move below 1.8350 area, we will examine the formation of an important short term low scenario. We will abandon this scenario after a move below 1.8270, and if these levels are breached, next important targets are set at 1.8000. This would be an extreme but yet possible short term scenario… Important intraday resistance is found at 1,8500-30 and 1,8580-8610, which is more important.
TRADING GBP/USD : The sharp decline on Friday was continued in the beginning of the week, leading to the 1.8400 area. For the short term, we will use any reaction towards 1.8500-30 area for sell positions with stops above 1.8560 and target at a retracement to previous lows. Sell orders could be tried again at 1,8590-8610 with stops above 1,8650… A move below 1,8350 will be used for buy positions, adding more at 1,8300 and stops below 1.8250. Our target for these positions will be wider at 1,8900-1,9000…
USD/JPY
You can find the complete analysis at the pdf...
Technical analysis-Comments G. Antonakos Head of Analysis Dept.
DISCLAIMER 1. The details and information included in the above analysis, are part of research based exclusively on currency charts and are of purely instructional and educational nature. None of the information featuring in the analysis can be considered as an invitation for opening positions in FOREX market or in the market of forward contracts or any securities listed on an organized or unorganized market.
2. We assume no responsibility for any kind of losses, profits or property loss resulting, in whole or in part, from acts that are based either directly or indirectly on the processing or the use of information, details and strategies, the reader may find in the analysis. The readers hold full responsibility for the use and the results of their actions.
3. The recipients of the analysis must acknowledge and accept that investment choices of any kind, especially concerning the FOREX market, contain risks (high, low and occasionally zero) of reduction or even loss of their investment. Therefore, they should always be cautious prior to any kind of action.
4. We reserve the right to change the terms and the characteristics of the analysis.
5. The contents of the analysis are solely intended for personal use. They may not be retransmitted, reproduced, distributed, published, adapted, modified or assigned to third parties in any way whatsoever. Anyone having access to them is required to comply with the law provisions on the protection of third party intellectual property rights
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The Usd continued to decline in the Asian session as worries over the US financial markets and surging crude prices weighed on the Dollar sentiment. The EurUsd climbed to the 1.4900 levels, before retracing slightly to 1.4876, while the UsdJpy declined and is now trading at 108.90. Crude rose across the board, with wti moving up $5.00, above $120.00bll. With concerns of a production cut swirling around the September 9th OPEC's meeting and Wednesday’s inventories lower than expected still lingering, crude has picked up a bullish tone. And given the high level of the Usd this commodity will be the prime driver in currency pricing today. In addition, 5-year swap spreads are now hoving around 100bp, the widest level since the Bear Stern disaster and before that you would have to go to 2001 and the equity market collapse to find spreads this wide. A gloomy sign if ever was one. Outside Bernanke’s scheduled speech in Wyoming (given the uncertainty surrounding the financial market, traders will be on a heightened state of alert) the market will be without any real events or data releases, so traders should be particularly aware of price-action in other assets classes.
Daily Forex Pivot Point AUDUSD R 3: 0.8846 R 2: 0.8797 R 1: 0.8757 CURRENT: 0.8735 S 1: 0.8626 S 2: 0.8593 S 3: 0.8503
EURJPY R 3: 163.88 R 2: 163.10 R 1: 162.39 CURRENT: 162.07 S 1: 160.88 S 2: 160.14 S 3: 158.61
USDSGD R 3: 1.4265 R 2: 1.4219 R 1: 1.4201 CURRENT: 1.4082 S 1: 1.4025 S 2: 1.3891 S 3: 1.3819
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The Usd was broadly stronger in Asian session, as traders position themselves for today's FOMC rate announcement. The EurUsd slid from 1.5590 to 1.5524, while the UsdJpy took a weaker tone in the Asian afternoon, falling to 108.05 from 108.32. The AudUsd & NzdUsd continued to be sold off on the back of the RBA comments, dropping to 0.9223 and 0.7259 respectively. The Jpy fueled carry trades took a bearish tone with EurJpy pulling back from yesterday's 168.78 highs to 167.96. After a busy day of trading, the crude is current softer down -1.08% to $120.09bll, while gold closed below the psychological $900oz lvl, now trading at $887.83oz. The Asian stock markets are following Wall Street lower, with the Hang Seng down -2.23%, while European stock futures are looking at a mixed open.
In Australia , the RBA held rates at 7.25% as was widely expected. What was unexpected was the absolutely frank talk from the central bank. In today's communication, the RBA stated "with demand slowing, the board's view is that scope to move towards a less restrictive stance of monetary policy in the period ahead is increasing". We view this transparent comment as an admission that unless we witness and economic miracle in the next 4 weeks, the market should expect a 25bp cut in September. With the market now shifting expectations to a 25bp cut in September and possibility of a 50bp cut in December, we expect the Aud to continue to come under selling pressure.
In the Eurozone retail sales, PMI and industrial production will keep the markets busy. We are expecting all three indicators to show weakness and putting pressure on the ECB to act.
In the UK , July's CIPS/Markit report on services is likely to verify that activity in the sector is slowing significantly. The index dropped sharply from 49.8 to 47.1 in June, (below the 50 level that theoretically separates contraction from expansion). We expect the GbpUsd to continue its downward market to 1.9300.
The highlight of the trading day will be the FOMC rate announcement. We are expecting the Fed to hold at 2.00%. Since they were unwilling to move higher in June we doubt conditions warrant have changed for the better. With renewed troubles in the financial markets and weakness in economic data, from our perspective the window for higher rates has closed. In addition, we expect the accompanying statement will be relatively unchanged and will disappoint the market by not taking a more hawkish tone. We still see upside inflation and downside economic risk to be basically balanced. Currently we expect the Fed to hold until 2009.
Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD R 3: 0.9419 R 2: 0.9347 R 1: 0.9301
CURRENT: 0.9213
S 1: 0.9164 S 2: 0.9032 S 3: 0.8979
EURJPY
R 3: 169.97 R 2: 169.73 R 1: 169.19 CURRENT: 167.14
S 1: 167.32 S 2: 166.98 S 3: 166.01
USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850 R 2: 1.3827 R 1: 1.3775
CURRENT: 1.3756
S 1: 1.3651 S 2: 1.3606 S 3: 1.3567
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The Usd traded sideways in Asian session, after the stronger ADP figures and rally on Wall Street pushed the greenback higher. The EurUsd traded in a 1.5525 to 1.5602 range, while the UsdJpy traded between 107.80 and 108.34. US stocks gained, as ADP pointed to a 9k gain vs. -60k, giving hope that Friday's NFP will prove stronger then the -75k expected. The S&P gained 1.7% and 2 year Ts dropped by 2.6%. Crude rallied to $126.88brl, but with global demand slowing we expected upside to be limited. Yesterday's decision by the Turkish Constitutional Court not to close the AKP was clearly seen as positive for markets, with Try and equities gaining on the report (with a positive gap at the open today). While the verdict has not ended all domestic concerns, it will go a long way to ease investors concerns.
The Japanese Industrial production fell by -2.0% m/m vs. -1.7% exp. The government has already cut forecasts for industrial output, as surveys point to further weakness ahead.
The European Session will be focused on Eurozone's July flash CPI. The market is expecting a new record high of 4.1% and there is little evidence to suggest otherwise. This figure, combined with the sharp drop in key Economic Sentiment Indicator, will mean at some point soon the ECB will have to make a tough choice. Inflation or Growth.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9637 R 2: 0.9590 R 1: 0.9528 CURRENT: 0.9438 S 1: 0.9404 S 2: 0.9328 S 3: 0.9276
EURJPY R 3: 171.81 R 2: 171.07 R 1: 169.97 CURRENT: 168.27 S 1: 167.50 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3850 R 2: 1.3827 R 1: 1.3717 CURRENT: 1.3685 S 1: 1.3606 S 2: 1.3567 S 3: 1.3501
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service. ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.
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ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.
The Usd was constricted to a tight range in the Asian session, as a lack of new data kept traders on the sideline. The EurUsd traded between 1.5737 – 1.5754, while the UsdJpy trended slightly lower from 107.60 to 107.30, on a string of stronger figures. The Jpy fueled carry trades were unchanged, with the king of carry,the TryJpy, trading around 88.950. Oil followed gold slightly higher to $124.98bll & $931.50oz. The US stock markets were sharply lower ( as financial shares led the DJIA and S&P -2.11% and -1.85% respectively), pushing down Asian indexes and European futures. The FDIC's seizure of two smaller failed banks, over the weekend weighed on sentiment and cast cloud over the health of the US's consumer banking sector. Quietly, the VIX has crept back up to 24.23, but FX 1 month implied vols are steadily easing. Oil prices seem to be the critical driver in Usd pricing, ahead of the late week's data releases.
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service. ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.
ForexGen principals:
ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry. In Japan, the economic data came out stronger than expected. Retail Sales for June printed at 0.0% vs. -0.5% exp m/m (0.3% vs. -0.2% exp y/y). Household Survey was also stronger than the expectations, but the outlook is gloomy: Household Survey shows that real spending in June fell -1.8% vs. -2.8% exp. However, the number of respondents (in the Cabinet office survey), which indicated that they would cut back on dining out and entertaining spending, significantly exceed those who were looking to increase spending. BoJ's Nishimura spoke with the media and said that the BoJ's policy was 'wide open' between increasing upside inflation and downside growth risks.
In New Zealand, Building permits for June fell less than expected to -20.1 vs. -42.3% prior reading. While the NzdUsd received a slight boost on the release trading up to 0.7457, we don't expect the gains to hold.
Market will be watching a string of UK data in European session. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey has stabilized in the past couple of months, but it still highlights weak demand. Spending on summer clearance sales are reported to have been strong, but with consumers coming under pressure from rising inflation, the threat of unemployment and the fall of housing prices, we don't expect spending to stay buoyant. The number of mortgage approvals for new house purchase fell below their early 1990s lows in May and are expected to fall further in June. Supported by the British Bankers Association, figures already released are showing a fall last week. While the weak fundamental data will be tempered by inflation concerns, we are expecting some weakness in Gbp today on the negative data.
German regional CPI numbers will released throughout the day, along with the final national figure. With consensus at 3.1% we expect headline CPI to surprise to the upside.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9794 R 2: 0.9675 R 1: 0.9637 CURRENT: 0.9580 S 1: 0.9527 S 2: 0.9477 S 3: 0.9451
EURJPY R 3: 171.81 R 2: 171.07 R 1: 169.97 CURRENT: 169.41 S 1: 167.50 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3826 R 2: 1.3717 R 1: 1.3661 CURRENT: 1.3626 S 1: 1.3567 S 2: 1.3501 S 3: 1.3448
The Usd was stronger at the start of the trading week in the Asian session. The EurUsd traded around the 1.5700 levels, while the UsdJpy failed to hold above the 108.00 level, slipping down to 107.84 as the day progressed. The NZD was supported by heavy margin buying, according to the Tokyo Financial Exchange publicly released data last week. The UsdNzd was able to rally of the 0.7409 session low to 0.7439. The UsdMxn saw a massive gap on the open, spiking from 10.0200 to 10.1229, as the BANXICO announced the end of its daily selling net fx reserves from accumulated oil revenues. The Jpy fueled carry trades continued to perform well, as risk declined and Japanese economic fundamentals erode. The EurJpy continued to rally from Friday's sell off, which saw 167.50 lows to Asian session 169.70 highs. The Asian stock markets are following the US higher, with Shanghai up 1.78%. Commodities are slightly firmer with wti crude trading up 0.28% to $123.61brl.
Despite the sudden resurgence in the Nzd strength, due partially to the excessive buying of Japanese margin traders and low liquidity, we expect to Nzd to weaken considerable in the coming week. Trade balance narrowed with imports falling on slowing demand but exports grew unexpectedly. With a "normal" monetary policy rate round 6.00% - 6.25% levels and the RBNZ clearly signaling a shift to a growth focus, the interest rate differential long enjoyed by the kiwi will unravel.
No major events or economic data scheduled for release in the UK or Eurozone.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9795 R 2: 0.9675 R 1: 0.9637 CURRENT: 0.9555 S 1: 0.9525 S 2: 0.9477 S 3: 0.9450
EURJPY R 3: 171.80 R 2: 171.07 R 1: 169.97 CURRENT: 169.13 S 1: 167.50 S 2: 166.00 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3826 R 2: 1.3717 R 1: 1.3660 CURRENT: 1.3638 S 1: 1.3563 S 2: 1.3500 S 3: 1.3448
Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service. ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.
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ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.
Usd was stable in Asian session as the lack of new data and non-data events gave speculators nothing new to trade on. EurUsd stayed well within Fridays range, trading from 1.5830 – 1.5874 while UsdJpy trended slightly lower from 106.98 to 106.71. AudUsd broke out of Fridays doldrums, trading back up to 0.9767. Asian Equity markets are in the green while European index futures are pointing to a negative open. Commodities are higher with wti crude trading at $129.88bbl and gold up .66% to 961.37. Bonds continue to decline across the treasury curve, as risk appetite is slowly returning to the market. FX 1-month implied vols are coming off last weeks highs, helping to support renewed risk appetite.
In the UK Rightmove House Price indices showed another decline in prices m/m 1.8% ( y/y 2.0%). In addition, the report also warned that unsold homes (per agency) have hit a record high. While the market was silent to the news, with deteriorating domestic conditions and the housing correction still well entrenched, the BoE will be increasingly pushed into a difficult dilemma (especially considering the UK will skid dangerously close to a recession).
In Australia , PPI came in lower for q2 rising to 1.0% q/q well below the expected 1.6% q/q, however the data does show an acceleration of inflation pressures. While PPI is not directly correlated with CPI it illustrates that inflation is still a concern and gave the Aud a slight boost in early trading.
No major events or data scheduled for release in the UK or Eurozone.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9895 R 2: 0.9849 R 1: 0.9818 CURRENT: 0.9755 S 1: 0.9675 S 2: 0.9664 S 3: 0.9597
EURJPY R 3: 170.00 R 2: 169.67 R 1: 169.18 CURRENT: 169.17 S 1: 168.25 S 2: 166.01 S 3: 165.33
USDSGD R 3: 1.3717 R 2: 1.3661 R 1: 1.3565 CURRENT: 1.3511 S 1: 1.3452 S 2: 1.3399 S 3: 1.3300
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Oil prices plunge $5. Financial market turmoil has weighed on Dollar.
News and Events:
The Dollar surged against the Yen on Thursday and erased earlier losses versus the Euro as Oil prices plunged and investors worried that high energy costs and financial market turmoil were slowing global growth. US stocks also rallied as Oil fell for a third straight day. That helped the Dollar post its biggest daily gain against the yen in more than three months.
Better-than-expected Q2 results from JPMorgan Chase & Co helped eased concern about the stability of the US financial sector that has weighed on the Dollar.
Oil has gained 35% this year alone, at one point hitting a record high 147.27. It fell more than $5 on Thursday to 129.29, its lowest level in six weeks.
Analysts said the Dollar's gains remained tentative, particularly given the state of uncertainty surrounding US financial markets and the slumping housing market.
The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.
ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).
Profile regulatory information:
ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.
Usd has been able to hold gain in the Asian session as risk appetite slowly crept back into the markets. EurUsd was range bound between 1.5801 – 1.5868 while UsdJpy bounced around the 104.70 - 105.30 levels. Jpy fueled carry trades saw renewed buying with AudJpy and EurJpy trending upward to 102.76 and 166.73. EM currencies also got a boost with UsdMxn and EurPln sliding to 10.2200 and 3.2083. The Usd was help as oil prices dropped sharply as EIA data showed an unexpected rise in inventories.
The Fed minutes released yesterday were perhaps slightly more hawkish then the market had anticipated. While members were clearly apprehensive with placing inflation worries over growth concerns, the minutes did state "the next change in the stance of policy could well be an increase in the funds rate". Note, that given the rapid evolution of events, these minutes are old news and therefore the weight we attached should be limited. Especially considering at the time of the FOMC meeting there was a general feeling that the US was stabilizing (which we know now is not the case). With yesterdays sharp increase in Junes headline inflation (5.0% vs. 4.5% exp) the Fed will have to stay diligent but given the downside risk to growth it would be irresponsible for the Fed to tighten. We expected the pause in Usd volatility will be short lived as uncertainty around domestic economic conditions, inflation and unsettled GSEs position are still very much outstanding.
With no major data to be released in the UK, Eurozone todays movement will be purely based on sentiment and positioning. A good way to guage what the fx market is thinking. In addition, keep an eye on other assets classes such as the equity market and energy prices for directional confirmation.
Daily Forex Pivot Points AUDUSD R 3: 0.9895 R 2: 0.9850 R 1: 0.9817 CURRENT: 0.9767 S 1: 0.9709 S 2: 0.9664 S 3: 0.9597
EURJPY R 3: 169.67 R 2: 168.95 R 1: 166.85 CURRENT: 167.16 S 1: 165.23 S 2: 164.75 S 3: 163.60
USDSGD R 3: 1.3717 R 2: 1.3660 R 1: 1.3565 CURRENT: 1.3517 S 1: 1.3451 S 2: 1.3399 S 3: 1.3300
The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.
ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).
Profile regulatory information:
ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.
The Markets Today Tuesday 15 July 2008 / 09:55h CET
EUR/USD
1.5970
EXPECTATION
THE RISK
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
It has reached Fridays top and remains well bid as market continues to fear rising oil and falling stock markets.. Short-term bullish trend at 1.5920, while it holds the Euro can move on higher.
If the current double-top at 1.5970 holds, there is risk of a set-back. Medium-term bullish trend is 200 pips lower.
1.5920 MINOR
1.5970 STRONG
1.5885 STRONG
1.6000 MINOR
1.5840 STRONG
1.6030 STRONG
GBP/USD
2.0020
EXPECTATION
THE RISK
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
It pierced the 2.00 level this morning and has room to continue higher to 2.0130 / 2.0180 strong resistance.
Short-term bullish trend at 1.9945, an hourly break risks 1.9830 or even 1.9770.
2.0000 STRONG
2.0030 MINOR
1.9945 TREND
2.0130 STRONG
1.9830 STRONG
2.0180 STRONG
USD/JPY
105.50
EXPECTATION
THE RISK
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
We see a divergence in USDJPY charts, and we will try buying here for a quick pull-back to 106.20.
An hourly break of 105.20 stops the short-term bullish view and we risk descending towards 104.40
105.35 STRONG
105.85 MINOR
104.85 MINOR
106.25 STRONG
104.40 STRONG
106.60 KEY
USD/CHF
1.0100
EXPECTATION
THE RISK
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
It has traded through the 1.0120 key level. High risk of widening the downside to 1.00 or even beyond.
It would need a return to above 1.0135 to stop the current bear move.
1.0075 MINOR
1.0135 STRONG
1.0000 STRONG
1.0160 MINOR
0.9965 STRONG
1.0220 STRONG
XAU/USD
975.00
EXPECTATION
THE RISK
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
965 was clearly broken and Gold remains very bid here this morning. Next target 988 and it could trade through 1000 again soon.
A daily close underneath of 965 stops this move and a correction towards 935 could be expected.
972 MINOR
980 MINOR
965 STRONG
988 STRONG
935 STRONG
1000 STRONG
The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.
ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).
Profile regulatory information:
ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.
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