Elliott wave: OIL & Usd/Chf

Gold hit the resistance area on Friday that was highlighted in our analysis, and along with a big drop in oil prices, pushed Eur/Usd lower. The euro now starts the week around 1.4700. The market may try to trade lower this week if the price of gold and oil continue their decline, and that may be lead by sentiment initially, but fed by a week of important U.S. based economic data. The moves on the euro automatically equate to new highs on Usd/Chf which bounced from the trend-line support that we have been looking at in recent posts, on Friday. We have an update on the one hour chart swissy chart, and have gone to the weekly oil chart to really get to the bottom of the technical story on oil. After all, who needs headlines when we have daily Elliott Wave analysis on the movers of the market?


OIL

Most currency pairs are highly correlated with Oil and Gold, they have to be in the respect that over 90% of all currency tickets has the Usd on one side of then or the other, as the Usd is the currency that international markets price oil in, traders should be watching commodities closely to find the right way on euro or swissy trends. We have kept this chart simple because that is the way that we like most charts to be; we have four clear waves with wave five to come. The chart is looking for technical support in wave four on Oil, which should slow down the short moves on Eur/Usd and push the Usd/Chf lower. Before that, we may need to see...

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The Forex Market Today

The Markets Today Thursday 31 July 2008 / 10:50h CET

EUR/USD	1.5610
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
We remain Dollar bullish. 1.5625 initial resistance, trend-line at 1.5665 – sell tops, expect a dip to 1.5500, target 1.5350 by tomorrow.		A clear break of 1.5665 stops the immediate bearish move and can see the pair recover to 1.5750 key.	1.5590 MINOR 1.5625 MINOR 1.5525 STRONG 1.5665 TREND 1.5490 STRONG 1.5750 KEY

GBP/USD	1.9805
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Cable is still holding the 1.9800 level, but the old bullish trend has been crossed long ago and we are waiting for a fall to 1.9660 or lower.		Initial resistance 1.9830 broken risks a rise to 1.9915 key.	1.9765 STRONG 1.9830 STRONG 1.9720 MINOR 1.9915 KEY 1.9660 STRONG 2.0000 STRONG

USD/JPY	108.20
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
As long as it remains above 108.05 we like to keep longs, target remains 110.		A break of 108.05 risks 107.70, an hourly close lower stops the bullish move and risks a set-back to 106.75	108.05 TREND 108.30 MINOR 107.70 STRONG 108.50 STRONG 106.75 KEY 108.90 MINOR

USD/CHF	1.0470
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
It maintains very high levels and is set to cross into the 1.05 handle for a push towards 1.0660		Watch 1.0445 initial support, a break there risks a set-back to trend-line at 1.0345	1.0445 STRONG 1.0500 MINOR 1.0405 MINOR 1.0540 MINOR 1.0345 TREND 1.0660 TARGET

XAU/USD	912.00
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Gold fell and recovered but is unable to cross the old 917 key level. Stay short, we look for another fall towards 885		An hourly close above 917 can see Gold recover up to 930	906 MINOR 917 STRONG 895 STRONG 925 MINOR 885 TARGET 933 KEY

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The Forex Market Today

The Markets Today Tuesday 29 July 2008 / 10:00h CET

EUR/USD	1.5750
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Both, the top and the bottom held and the Euro was held in tight range. Minor bullish trend at 1.5730 this morning, while this holds we can re-challenge 1.5760/85 level		We remain bearish in the medium-term, an hourly close underneath of 1.5725 is a bearish signal. On top: a close above 1.5820 stops our view.	1.5730 MINOR 1.5765 STRONG 1.5690 STRONG 1.5820 KEY 1.5640 MINOR 1.5860 STRONG

GBP/USD	1.9935
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
The bullish trend held and Cable went to test the top. 2.00 is still key resistance, we like to try shorts here for a new dip to at least 1.9885.		An daily close above 2.00 keeps Cable bid. But a daily close underneath of rising support 1.9885 calls for a move lower	1.9925 MINOR 1.9970 MINOR 1.9885 TREND 2.0005 KEY 1.9810 STRONG 2.0060 MINOR

USD/JPY	107.60
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
More range trading ahead, we lower the range a few pips to 106.80 / 107.70.		An hourly close above 107.75 should lead to 108.50	107.30 MINOR 107.70 MINOR 106.80 STRONG 108.10 MINOR 105.85 STRONG 108.50 STRONG

USD/CHF	1.0330
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Not much of a dip so far. Here we expect the USD to test rising support 1.0285, wait to buy such a dip.		An hourly close underneath of 1.0270 stops our otherwise bullish view for a rise above 1.04.	1.0305 MINOR 1.0355 MINOR 1.0285 TREND 1.0400 KEY 1.0210 MINOR 1.0485 STRONG

XAU/USD	930.00
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Small initial range 926 / 935 – possible extension towards 940, we like to sell tops for a medium-term move through 900		Minor bullish support 925 broken today will unleash a bearish move faster than expected with initial target 917	926 STRONG 936 MINOR 917 KEY 939 STRONG 908 MINOR 945 MINOR

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

The Forex Market Overview

The Forex Market Overview 11 July 2008

The Usd was range bound in Asian Session after being sold-off in NY trading. EurUsd traded between 1.5760 - 1.5800 resistance while UsdJpy found slightly more direction trending upwards from 106.90 to 107.28. Rumors around Fannie & Freddie continue to distract the markets with risk appetite shaky and equity markets falling. While Paulson and Bernanke reiterated views that they were adequately capitalized the market are not so easily convinced.

In Japan consumer confidence dropped to a new record low as concerns over the domestic economy, inflation & employment all weighing on sentiment. The index slid to 32.6 in June (lowest level since Dec 01) from 33.9 in May. In addition, personal demand indicators for consumption include a -3.2% fall. Without support from the Japanese consumer, there is little chance we shall see the current pace of domestic deterioration slow in 2008. And expect the Jpy to depend on bouts of risk aversion rather then underlying fundamental for currency support.

The Gbp continues to struggle despite the MPC holding rates steady at 5.00% yesterday. The rational is that while inflation is a persistent problem, weakening domestic data, highlighted by the housing sector, suggest that there is a higher probability that next rate move will be down. While rising inflation will keep the BoE vigilant near term the fear of sliding into a full recession will keep the Bank for hiking and pressure on the Gbp.

In the US, University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index will be released today. There has not been much to be positive about, with falling home prices, surging energy costs and unemployment rising we expect there is little chance that the index will improve. In addition, the US trade deficit is expected to widen as the higher energy cost start to have a profound effect. This round of gloomy economic data, on this light calendar week should weigh on the Usd today.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9670
R 2: 0.9642
R 1: 0.9618
CURRENT: 0.9611
S 1: 0.9545
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9459

EURJPY
R 3: 170.00
R 2: 169.75
R 1: 169.50
CURRENT: 169.17
S 1: 167.83
S 2: 167.13
S 3: 166.10

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3606
S 1: 1.3565
S 2: 1.3505
S 3: 1.3470

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