Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 06/08/2008

The Usd was slightly weaker in Asian session, as the market digested the FOMC decision to hold rates at 2.00%. The EurUsd gained from 1.5450 to 1.5509, while the UsdJpy ranged between 108.20 to 108.47. The Jpy fueled carry trades performed well, with EurJpy piercing through 168.00 support and the TryJpy reached a 7 month high at 94.11. Wall Street rallied on the Fed decision, with the Dow up 2.93% and a majority of Asian regional indexes are following. The European stock markets are looking to open higher with FTSE futures trading up 2.78%. The commodity bubble continues to deflate with crude wti trading below the psychological $120.00bll and currently at $118.83bll.

The FOMC decision to hold rates at 2.00% was really not a surprise. However, the fact that Fed member ultra hawk Plosser didn’t join Fisher in voting for a hike was notable. The lack of additional votes subtly suggests that members view the current rate level as correct and downside risks to economic growth as still fragile. The accompanying statement was little changed, with acknowledgement that commodity prices are declining, changing the last statement wording in regard to energy prices from “continued increases” to just “elevated”. With commodity prices falling and inflation expectations softening, and while the risks to US growth still persist (it would be extraordinary for the Fed to raise when payrolls are collapsing), we don’t expect the Fed to act any time soon. For this week, the fate of the Usd lies in the outcome of Thursday ECB rate decision.

AUDUSD

R 3: 0.9419
R 2: 0.9347
R 1: 0.9301

CURRENT: 0.9190

S 1: 0.9134
S 2: 0.9091
S 3: 0.9032

EURJPY

R 3: 169.73
R 2: 169.19
R 1: 168.79

CURRENT: 168.05

S 1: 166.86
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD

R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3817

CURRENT: 1.3779

S 1: 1.3651
S 2: 1.3606
S 3: 1.3567

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The Forex Market Today

The Markets Today Tuesday 29 July 2008 / 10:00h CET

EUR/USD	1.5750
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Both, the top and the bottom held and the Euro was held in tight range. Minor bullish trend at 1.5730 this morning, while this holds we can re-challenge 1.5760/85 level		We remain bearish in the medium-term, an hourly close underneath of 1.5725 is a bearish signal. On top: a close above 1.5820 stops our view.	1.5730 MINOR 1.5765 STRONG 1.5690 STRONG 1.5820 KEY 1.5640 MINOR 1.5860 STRONG

GBP/USD	1.9935
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
The bullish trend held and Cable went to test the top. 2.00 is still key resistance, we like to try shorts here for a new dip to at least 1.9885.		An daily close above 2.00 keeps Cable bid. But a daily close underneath of rising support 1.9885 calls for a move lower	1.9925 MINOR 1.9970 MINOR 1.9885 TREND 2.0005 KEY 1.9810 STRONG 2.0060 MINOR

USD/JPY	107.60
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
More range trading ahead, we lower the range a few pips to 106.80 / 107.70.		An hourly close above 107.75 should lead to 108.50	107.30 MINOR 107.70 MINOR 106.80 STRONG 108.10 MINOR 105.85 STRONG 108.50 STRONG

USD/CHF	1.0330
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Not much of a dip so far. Here we expect the USD to test rising support 1.0285, wait to buy such a dip.		An hourly close underneath of 1.0270 stops our otherwise bullish view for a rise above 1.04.	1.0305 MINOR 1.0355 MINOR 1.0285 TREND 1.0400 KEY 1.0210 MINOR 1.0485 STRONG

XAU/USD	930.00
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Small initial range 926 / 935 – possible extension towards 940, we like to sell tops for a medium-term move through 900		Minor bullish support 925 broken today will unleash a bearish move faster than expected with initial target 917	926 STRONG 936 MINOR 917 KEY 939 STRONG 908 MINOR 945 MINOR

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 29 July 2008

The Usd was constricted to a tight range in the Asian session, as a lack of new data kept traders on the sideline. The EurUsd traded between 1.5737 – 1.5754, while the UsdJpy trended slightly lower from 107.60 to 107.30, on a string of stronger figures. The Jpy fueled carry trades were unchanged, with the king of carry,the TryJpy, trading around 88.950. Oil followed gold slightly higher to $124.98bll & $931.50oz. The US stock markets were sharply lower ( as financial shares led the DJIA and S&P -2.11% and -1.85% respectively), pushing down Asian indexes and European futures. The FDIC's seizure of two smaller failed banks, over the weekend weighed on sentiment and cast cloud over the health of the US's consumer banking sector. Quietly, the VIX has crept back up to 24.23, but FX 1 month implied vols are steadily easing. Oil prices seem to be the critical driver in Usd pricing, ahead of the late week's data releases.

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

In Japan, the economic data came out stronger than expected. Retail Sales for June printed at 0.0% vs. -0.5% exp m/m (0.3% vs. -0.2% exp y/y). Household Survey was also stronger than the expectations, but the outlook is gloomy: Household Survey shows that real spending in June fell -1.8% vs. -2.8% exp. However, the number of respondents (in the Cabinet office survey), which indicated that they would cut back on dining out and entertaining spending, significantly exceed those who were looking to increase spending. BoJ's Nishimura spoke with the media and said that the BoJ's policy was 'wide open' between increasing upside inflation and downside growth risks.

In New Zealand, Building permits for June fell less than expected to -20.1 vs. -42.3% prior reading. While the NzdUsd received a slight boost on the release trading up to 0.7457, we don't expect the gains to hold.

Market will be watching a string of UK data in European session. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey has stabilized in the past couple of months, but it still highlights weak demand. Spending on summer clearance sales are reported to have been strong, but with consumers coming under pressure from rising inflation, the threat of unemployment and the fall of housing prices, we don't expect spending to stay buoyant. The number of mortgage approvals for new house purchase fell below their early 1990s lows in May and are expected to fall further in June. Supported by the British Bankers Association, figures already released are showing a fall last week. While the weak fundamental data will be tempered by inflation concerns, we are expecting some weakness in Gbp today on the negative data.

German regional CPI numbers will released throughout the day, along with the final national figure. With consensus at 3.1% we expect headline CPI to surprise to the upside.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9794
R 2: 0.9675
R 1: 0.9637
CURRENT: 0.9580
S 1: 0.9527
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9451

EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 169.41
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3626
S 1: 1.3567
S 2: 1.3501
S 3: 1.3448

The Forex Market Today

The Markets Today Tuesday 15 July 2008 / 09:55h CET

EUR/USD	1.5970
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
It has reached Fridays top and remains well bid as market continues to fear rising oil and falling stock markets.. Short-term bullish trend at 1.5920, while it holds the Euro can move on higher.		If the current double-top at 1.5970 holds, there is risk of a set-back. Medium-term bullish trend is 200 pips lower.	1.5920 MINOR 1.5970 STRONG 1.5885 STRONG 1.6000 MINOR 1.5840 STRONG 1.6030 STRONG

GBP/USD	2.0020
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
It pierced the 2.00 level this morning and has room to continue higher to 2.0130 / 2.0180 strong resistance.		Short-term bullish trend at 1.9945, an hourly break risks 1.9830 or even 1.9770.	2.0000 STRONG 2.0030 MINOR 1.9945 TREND 2.0130 STRONG 1.9830 STRONG 2.0180 STRONG

USD/JPY	105.50
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
We see a divergence in USDJPY charts, and we will try buying here for a quick pull-back to 106.20.		An hourly break of 105.20 stops the short-term bullish view and we risk descending towards 104.40	105.35 STRONG 105.85 MINOR 104.85 MINOR 106.25 STRONG 104.40 STRONG 106.60 KEY

USD/CHF	1.0100
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
It has traded through the 1.0120 key level. High risk of widening the downside to 1.00 or even beyond.		It would need a return to above 1.0135 to stop the current bear move.	1.0075 MINOR 1.0135 STRONG 1.0000 STRONG 1.0160 MINOR 0.9965 STRONG 1.0220 STRONG

XAU/USD	975.00
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
965 was clearly broken and Gold remains very bid here this morning. Next target 988 and it could trade through 1000 again soon.		A daily close underneath of 965 stops this move and a correction towards 935 could be expected.	972 MINOR 980 MINOR 965 STRONG 988 STRONG 935 STRONG 1000 STRONG

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Economic And Credit Worrie

Dollar near lows economic and credit worries

News and Events:

The Dollar slumped on Thursday, hitting its lowest level against the Euro in nearly three weeks, as investors reduced their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate rise this year.

While the Federal Reserve on Wednesday said inflation risks had increased, it did not use language that convinced markets a rate rise was likely at its next policy meeting in August. In contrast, the ECB has repeatedly said it may lift interest rates in July to fight inflation. That helped push the Euro near a three-week high at 1.5768. The US central bank's move to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday effectively ended one of its most aggressive rate-cutting campaigns, launched last September to curb economic fallout from the housing and credit crisis.

US financial stocks plummeted while shares of General Motors sank more than 10%. Fitch Ratings' downgrade of General Motors and Chrysler credit ratings also hit the Dollar, as did the Dow's drop to its lowest level in 21 months. Oil prices on Thursday shot up to a record above $140 a barrel.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 27 June 2008

Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session after yesterday surging oil prices and worries over growth punished the greenback. EurUsd pulled back from 1.5763 to 1.5724 while GbpUsd followed as 1.9897 to 1.9857. However, the easing of pressure goes against the bearish feel the Usd attracted over recent days and we expect further dollar weakness. US stock markets took a massive dive while crude push to it highest levels ever. Asian stock markets followed the US lower and European equities futures are pointing to a negative open.

Thursday was a red day for US equity markets, as it was for markets in Europe. The S&P500 was lower by nearly 3%, while the DJIA was off by just over 3%, and the NASDAQ by 3.3%. The S&P500 broke through the 1300 level, while crude was moving in the opposite direction crossing the $140 mark, before closing at a record of just under $140. US Economic news out on the day was decent, but was completely overlooked. The summer looks like it's going to be a long one...Oil prices shot up over $140 barrel after the head of OPEC stated that prices could hit $170 barrel this year. Goldman Sachs forecasted more write-downs for Citigroup and they also recommended selling auto shares, this news sent shivers through financial stocks.

Asian markets are unsurprisingly lower this morning, as the Nikkei declines 2.7%, the Hang Seng is down 1.8% and the MSCI A-P is lower by 2.4%. The region is set to return its worst H1 since 1992, as the credit crunch hits home.

In our view Japan's economic data was decidedly negative. Retail sales exceeded market expectations reaching 0.2% but has slowed since February's peak and when you carve out fuel consumption was -0.1% yoy. Household survey's showed real spending was down -3.2% vs. -2.1% exp and Auto sales slowed to 0.2%. In our mind just more evidence that Japan is facing significant headwind on both the domestic & international front and we expect Jpy to suffer.

In the European session markets will be watching EC Economic Sentiment Indicator. This indicator has recently been optimistic regarding economic activity in the euro zone but should fall further today. With the euro at elevated levels and global demand soft industrial confidence should also weaken. However with markets trading off commodity prices and stock markets we don't expect a soft figure will have significant effect on EurUsd strength. In addition, since we are expecting the ECB to hike and NFP to shed over 100k jobs 1.6000 doesn't seem impossible.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9604
CURRENT: 0.9582
S 1: 0.9490
S 2: 0.9448
S 3: 0.9405

EURJPY
R 3: 171.00
R 2: 170.00
R 1: 169.15
CURRENT: 168.17
S 1: 166.77
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.51

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3645
S 1: 1.3635
S 2: 1.3580
S 3: 1.3554

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 26 June 2008

Usd was stable in the Asian session after being sold off in response to the FOMC meeting. EurUsd ranged between 1.5660 and 1.5685 while UsdJpy trended upwards from 107.75 to 108.05. Carry trades continued to exhibit strong momentum with EurJpy finally breaking thru 168.80 resistance, climbing to 169.40 and AudJpy followed that trend by breaking thru 103.48 resistance, reaching new highs at 103.69. In addition, given the fact that the EurJpy has historically proven to be a good indicator of risk appetite we expect continued demand of yield driven currency trades.

US stocks ended higher Wednesday after oil prices fell and the Fed left rates unchanged at 2%. The major indexes retreated from their post-FOMC highs in late-afternoon trading, with the Dow barely closing in positive territory. Asian markets trading higher this morning after the Fed said downside risks to growth appear to have diminished and gave no signs that it will raise interest rates anytime soon. Sony & Nintendo led the advancers. Oil prices pulled back after an unexpected increase in crude stockpiles but pared their losses after the Fed statement; the Aug '08 contract was down $2.45 to $134.55. Gold prices closed lower on the back of lower oil prices; the most active was the Aug '08 contract down $9.30 to $882.30. We also saw Sep '08 silver -13.2 ¢ at $16.607/oz.

Yesterday the Fed left rates unchanged at 2.00% and the statement showed the downside risks have diminished slightly and upside inflation risks have increased. Overall the statement had a less hawkish tone then what the market was expecting and failed to indicate that the fed is in any real hurry to begin hiking rates. As expected Fisher voted for an immediate hike (on the record saying the fed shouldn’t have moved below 3.5%). What was interesting and perhaps the strongest signal to the market that rate expectation have become over done was Plossers vote to hold rates along with the majority. In addition, the lack of assessment by the Fed of how inflation measured against growth ie which measurement would steer the Fed monetary policy suggested again that members are in no rush to hike given the unsettled domestic condition. With both rate cuts and hikes off the table in the near term much depends on economic data. We currently are not expecting much for the US and believe data will point to an economy just getting by but with significant downside risk. This should keep the Usd under pressure and we are watching for EurUsd to begin creeping upwards.

While data out of New Zealand has little monetary policy effect, a wider Current account deficit was not what official were hoping for (declined to 2.160bn deficit in Q1 from 3.410bn in Q1). Account deficit GDP ratio at 7.8%. Net income deficits worsened while exports outstripped imports.

Austria data was mixed with Conference Board indicators printed higher then expected at 0.3% vs. -0.4% while job vacancies rose 3.4% after a drop in April of -2.5%.

In the UK five members of the MPC will testify to the treasury committee on May inflation report (not a position we envy). This should be a good time for the markets to receive some clarity regarding how seriously the members are considering a rate hike. Especially given last weeks mixed communications signals. But overall we expect that we will see a diverse view of how each member views the inflation verse growth situation.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9604
CURRENT: 0.9578
S 1: 0.9490
S 2: 0.9448
S 3: 0.9405

EURJPY
R 3: 171.00
R 2: 170.00
R 1: 169.15
CURRENT: 169.13
S 1: 166.77
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.51

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3666
S 1: 1.3635
S 2: 1.3580
S 3: 1.3554

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.