Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 31 July 2008

The Usd traded sideways in Asian session, after the stronger ADP figures and rally on Wall Street pushed the greenback higher. The EurUsd traded in a 1.5525 to 1.5602 range, while the UsdJpy traded between 107.80 and 108.34. US stocks gained, as ADP pointed to a 9k gain vs. -60k, giving hope that Friday's NFP will prove stronger then the -75k expected. The S&P gained 1.7% and 2 year Ts dropped by 2.6%. Crude rallied to $126.88brl, but with global demand slowing we expected upside to be limited.

Yesterday's decision by the Turkish Constitutional Court not to close the AKP was clearly seen as positive for markets, with Try and equities gaining on the report (with a positive gap at the open today). While the verdict has not ended all domestic concerns, it will go a long way to ease investors concerns.

The Japanese Industrial production fell by -2.0% m/m vs. -1.7% exp. The government has already cut forecasts for industrial output, as surveys point to further weakness ahead.

The European Session will be focused on Eurozone's July flash CPI. The market is expecting a new record high of 4.1% and there is little evidence to suggest otherwise. This figure, combined with the sharp drop in key Economic Sentiment Indicator, will mean at some point soon the ECB will have to make a tough choice. Inflation or Growth.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9637
R 2: 0.9590
R 1: 0.9528
CURRENT: 0.9438
S 1: 0.9404
S 2: 0.9328
S 3: 0.9276

EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 168.27
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3717
CURRENT: 1.3685
S 1: 1.3606
S 2: 1.3567
S 3: 1.3501

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The Forex Market Today

The Markets Today Monday 21 July 2008 / 09:25h CET

EUR/USD	1.5860
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Strong initial range 1.5810 / 1.5880 this morning. A break on top has room for a lift towards 1.60, with a daily close above we can remain bullish.		There is loots of space lower, an hourly break at 1.5810 should see a drop to 1.5750. A low daily close has room for 1.5610 by tomorrow.	1.5810 TREND 1.5885 STRONG 1.5750 STRONG 1.5930 MINOR 1.5615 KEY 1.5990 STRONG

GBP/USD	1.9920
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Very strong basis at 1.9900, while it holds Cable should re-try the 2.00 level, but it needs a daily close above that to stay bullish.		An hourly close underneath of 1.9890 stops the short-term bullish outlook and risks a fall to 1.9800, medium-term rising trend.	1.9900 STRONG 1.9940 MINOR 1.9810 TREND 2.0000 KEY 1.9750 STRONG 2.0060 STRONG

USD/JPY	106.70
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
USDJPY overshot and remains bid at 106.60 for now. While this holds there is a possibility to retry the 107.15 resistance level, an higher close is bullish for 108.50		An hourly break of 106.55 risks a pullback to 105.85	106.55 STRONG 106.90 MINOR 106.20 MINOR 107.15 KEY 105.85 STRONG 107.70 STRONG

USD/CHF	1.0220
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
The pair broke the recent bullish trend and is stuck in a small neutral range of 1.0180 / 1.0250, we see no direction here but watch out for a break lower.		We see a possible extension to 1.0285, failure to close the day above that however is bearish for a retry of the 1.00 key	1.0180 STRONG 1.0250 STRONG 1.0135 MINOR 1.0285 STRONG 1.0100 STRONG 1.0330 STRONG

XAU/USD	961.00
EXPECTATION		THE RISK	SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Gold maintained the range, today this range has narrowed to 942 / 968. Closer to the top we may try selling at 963/965 with a tight stop.		A break through 968 and daily close above that is bullish Gold.	952 MINOR 964 MINOR 942 TREND 972 KEY 935 KEY 974 STRONG
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Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 18 July 2008

Usd consolidated in Asian session, as the current environment paints a mixed picture creating indecision in traders. EurUsd in choppy trading ranged from 1.5783 to 1.5866 while UsdJpy was slightly stronger, rising above 107.00 in early trading, before retracting back to 106.13 as the day wore on. Jpy fueled carry trades followed a similar pattern. Commodity bloc ccy’s continued to hold up despite general pullback in commodity prices. AudUsd was able to rally off the 0.9680 session, lows to 0.9725. Try was able to gain on the back of their Central Bank raising rates 50bp with UsdTry falling to 1.1950. Usd sentiment is clearly varied and will stay so for today’s trading.

Equity markets in the US clearly got a boost from yesterday’s sharp fall in oil prices--down almost $5bbl to $129.50bbl (partially due to reports the US will attend nuclear talks with Iran, easing perceptions of geopolitical tensions). This optimism was also reflected in yields with 2-year up 2.50%. This weeks decline brings up an interesting situation if energy prices continue to decrease, many central banks will take this as positive sight that inflation pressures will also ease. Which will therefore, provide policy makers with the perceived opportunity to address deteriorating growth by lowering rates.

Australian terms of trade for Q2 were better than expected. Export prices for Q2 surged by 13.5% vs. 10% exp q/q, while import prices grew by only 1.4% vs, 1.7% exp q/q. The rise in export prices reflects a broad based surge of commodity demand. As stated above Aud and the rest of the commodity bloc remains supportive of commodity prices and yield differentials.

BoJ minutes revealed a slightly more hawkish view on inflation than expected, however it is clear that members will be focused on the downside risks near term. In addition Shirakawa noted that Japans economy is more insolated from external shocks than previously believed. We are targeting 108.00 despite the unsettled nature of risk appetite.

Another light day in European session and with summer Friday clearly in effect, we expect trading to be subdued.

Daily Forex Pivot Points
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9895
R 2: 0.9849
R 1: 0.9818
CURRENT: 0.9718
S 1: 0.9675
S 2: 0.9664
S 3: 0.9597

EURJPY
R 3: 170.00
R 2: 169.67
R 1: 169.11
CURRENT: 168.39
S 1: 165.23
S 2: 164.76
S 3: 163.60

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3717
R 2: 1.3661
R 1: 1.3565
CURRENT: 1.3521
S 1: 1.3452
S 2: 1.3399
S 3: 1.3300

The ForexGen's provided services are all restricted and regulated by the international banking and financial regulatory standards. All our provided activities are supported by creativeness and modernization. Ambitious & motivated employees are working simultaneously to protect the customer's confidentiality. ForexGen is continuously providing the market's most competitive conditions.

ForexGen complies with the trade commissions in the USA, EU and Australia. Being registered by the commercial authorities in 18+ countries, we adhere to the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).

Profile regulatory information:

ForexGen is complying with all applicable international laws and all financial regulations and procedures governing its industry in order to sustain the security standards in the financial services world.