Euro to fall at 1.4279

Economic Alarms

Mixed Performance of Euro zone and Satisfied data from US economy last week has let Euro to take satway Trend, where higher fuel price is a bitter experience for the Global Economic Growth.This week data from Euro would release saying Business conditions are shivering but still expecting for a better future, US got improvement in housing sector which is making greenish in consumer sentiment with good forecast as last Quarter GDP increased and forecast is higher.


Heads n Shoulders.

In weekly chart the clear "Head n Shoulder" would be interesting Trend. Before Euro rise back to 1.5 ish, it would fall to 1.4513 followed by 1.4279.

Taking look in the chart below:

Trend (Satway) with bullish Shadow.

13 days self adjust RSI at Over Sold Area.

Trading Below Pivot 1.4750


R3 = 1.5395 (STRONG)
R2 = 1.4906 (MEDIUM)
R1 = 1.4827 (MEDIUM)

S1 = 1.4673 (STRONG)
S2 = 1.4504 (MEDIUM)
S3 = 1.4279 (MEDIUM)

Opec's jealous for high Oil Prices would Find a support for Euro to not fall. where Supportive US data will keep euro in "Sell" mode for Short Time.

Best Buy "Bet" Observed at 1.4444. the risk observation is 165 pips.

Fundamentals are also considered to confirm the Trend.....

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BoJ Downgrades Economic Assessment; Says Growth Likely To Remain Sluggish

Wednesday, the Bank of Japan lowered its economic assessment saying that the growth will likely remain sluggish for the time being. The central bank expects the world`s second-largest economy to return to moderate growth after international commodity prices stabilize and other economies pick-up the growth momentum. The central bank noted that the economic growth has been sluggish against the backdrop of high energy and materials prices and weaker growth in exports.

In its monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments released a day after the central bank retained the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50%, the apex bank said Japan`s export growth is expected to remain only modest for the time being as weakness in overseas economies is reducing demand.

In July, the central bank had said Japan`s economic growth is slowing further, mainly due to the effects of high energy and materials prices and added that the economy is expected to grow at a slower pace for the time being and gradually return onto a moderate growth path thereafter.

On Tuesday, at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting in Tokyo, the BoJ Board of Governors voted to leave the overnight call rate unchanged for the 21st consecutive meeting. After announcing the decision, the central bank governor Masaaki Shirakawa had said the economic recovery might be delayed as rising prices across the glob is reducing demand for Japanese exports.

In the second quarter of 2008, gross domestic product, or GDP, had decreased 0.6%, marking its first decline since the second quarter of 2007.

Further, the central bank said, as a result of an expected decrease in corporate profits and relatively weak real household income, growth in domestic private demand is likely to be sluggish for the time being. Public investment is also predicted to decelerate. Hence, production is expected to remain relatively weak.

On the price front, the central bank noted that domestic corporate goods prices are likely to continue increasing as rise in international commodity prices is still biting consumers. However, the BoJ said the pace of growth is likely to slow.

The year-on-year rate of increase in consumer prices is expected to be somewhat higher over the coming months but to moderate gradually thereafter, reflecting developments in prices of energy and food, the BoJ said.

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Stronger USD In Asian Session

Forex Market Overview 19 August 2008

The Usd was stronger in Asian session, as concerns over slowing growth persisted. The EurUsd traded lower from 1.4700 to 1.4651, the while UsdJpy rallied from mid day 109.69 lows to 110.24, as the day progressed. The AudUsd came under pressure, as RBA minutes showed the members did contemplate an "early reductions", which sent the pair from 0.8700 to 0.8635 and the NzdUsd followed falling, from 0.7172 to 0.7045. Concerns of a tropical storm directly impacting the gulf's oil production eased slightly overnight (although not completely clear just yet), while crude hovered around the $111.50bll mark, which was Usd supportive. Wall Street traded lower yesterday led by the financial sectors, as worries over Fannie and Freddie and larger then expected q3 losses scared investors. Asian stock markets are currently trading lower and European stock futures are pointing to a lower opening.

As was universally expected, the Bank of Japan decided to hold rates steady at 0.5%. The BoJ stated domestic demand could soften further and both downside risks to growth and upside risk to inflation remain intact. In addition, the assessment of the domestic economy was lowered again, as concerns growth hat weakness in the US (and weakness in general exports) will send Japan into a fully blown recession.

In Australia, the RBA minutes showed that members did consider an "early reduction" in rates. However, the concerns that elevated inflation could lead to rising wages kept the bank on hold. We believe that the overall tone of the minutes supports a September cut, but a stronger case can be made for 25bp then 50bp (roughly 70bp of cuts have already been price in this year).

European activity will be centered on the German ZEW. We are expecting continued deterioration and a surprise to the downside. Investors sentiment did tick up in August from a very low level, while current conditions are certainly under-pressure. However, from a macro perspective, ZEW has not been tightly correlated with GDP growth in the past, so any market reaction will be short lived.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8797
R 1: 0.8757
CURRENT: 0.8651
S 1: 0.8633
S 2: 0.8593
S 3: 0.8503

EURJPY
R 3: 164.41
R 2: 163.88
R 1: 163.10
CURRENT: 161.11
S 1: 161.01
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4193
CURRENT: 1.4167
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819

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ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.

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Stronger USD In Asian Session

Forex Market Overview 19 August 2008

The Usd was stronger in Asian session, as concerns over slowing growth persisted. The EurUsd traded lower from 1.4700 to 1.4651, the while UsdJpy rallied from mid day 109.69 lows to 110.24, as the day progressed. The AudUsd came under pressure, as RBA minutes showed the members did contemplate an "early reductions", which sent the pair from 0.8700 to 0.8635 and the NzdUsd followed falling, from 0.7172 to 0.7045. Concerns of a tropical storm directly impacting the gulf's oil production eased slightly overnight (although not completely clear just yet), while crude hovered around the $111.50bll mark, which was Usd supportive. Wall Street traded lower yesterday led by the financial sectors, as worries over Fannie and Freddie and larger then expected q3 losses scared investors. Asian stock markets are currently trading lower and European stock futures are pointing to a lower opening.

As was universally expected, the Bank of Japan decided to hold rates steady at 0.5%. The BoJ stated domestic demand could soften further and both downside risks to growth and upside risk to inflation remain intact. In addition, the assessment of the domestic economy was lowered again, as concerns growth hat weakness in the US (and weakness in general exports) will send Japan into a fully blown recession.

In Australia, the RBA minutes showed that members did consider an "early reduction" in rates. However, the concerns that elevated inflation could lead to rising wages kept the bank on hold. We believe that the overall tone of the minutes supports a September cut, but a stronger case can be made for 25bp then 50bp (roughly 70bp of cuts have already been price in this year).

European activity will be centered on the German ZEW. We are expecting continued deterioration and a surprise to the downside. Investors sentiment did tick up in August from a very low level, while current conditions are certainly under-pressure. However, from a macro perspective, ZEW has not been tightly correlated with GDP growth in the past, so any market reaction will be short lived.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8846
R 2: 0.8797
R 1: 0.8757
CURRENT: 0.8651
S 1: 0.8633
S 2: 0.8593
S 3: 0.8503

EURJPY
R 3: 164.41
R 2: 163.88
R 1: 163.10
CURRENT: 161.11
S 1: 161.01
S 2: 160.14
S 3: 158.61

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4193
CURRENT: 1.4167
S 1: 1.4025
S 2: 1.3891
S 3: 1.3819

ForexGen.com is an online trading service provider supplying a unique and individualized service to Forex traders worldwide. We are dedicated to absolutely provide the best online trading services in the Forex market.

ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.

Good Luck
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RBA Says Rate Cut May Be Needed To Avoid Deeper Economic Slowdown

RBA Says Rate Cut May Be Needed To Avoid Deeper Economic Slowdown

The Reserve Bank of Australia`s Policy Board thinks an interest rate reduction might be necessary to help steer the nation`s economy away from a deeper economic slowdown.

Minutes of the RBA`s August 5 policy meeting, released Tuesday in Sydney, indicate the bank was poised to consider a drop from the current 12-year high cash rate of 7.5 percent.

`Indeed, less restrictive conditions could soon be called for, otherwise the risk of a deeper and more persistent slowing in the economy would increase,“ the minutes said. `On these considerations, a case could be made for an early reduction in the cash rate.`

The minutes showed committee members saw that `consumption spending had weakened considerably in 2008, with retail sales being essentially flat in value terms over the first half of the year.`

`On balance, it was now looking more likely that demand would remain on a slower track, and economic growth would be fairly slow, over the period ahead.`

The RBA Board`s next meeting is scheduled for September 2.

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ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.

Dollar Rose Broadly Against Majors

Dollar rose broadly against majors on surprising data and lower expectations for ECB rate increase

News and Events:

The Dollar rose broadly and hit a 5-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday, bolstered by a surprise rise in June Home sales and diminished expectations for euro zone interest rate increases.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, in remarks after the bank held rates at 4.25%, said he expects economic growth in the euro zone to weaken substantially this year, even as he sees inflation remaining above the ECB's target. Following his comments, investors unwound bets for ECB interest rate increases this year.

Further pressuring the Dollar was an increase in Crude oil by 0.94% to 119.92 per barrel after falling to a three-month low 117.14 on Wednesday.

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ECB And BOE

ECB and BOE are both expected to leave rates steady

News and Events:

The Dollar rose for a fourth straight day overall to a seven-month peak versus the Yen and a six week high against the Euro on Wednesday, as the slide in oil prices to a new three month low raised hopes economic growth would pick up and inflation would subside.

Earlier this week, Fed kept short term interest rates unchanged but was perceived as being slightly more concerned about slow economic growth than it was about inflation

Demand for the Euro fell ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting today. While the bank is expected to leave benchmark borrowing costs steady at 4.25%, analysts think ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet could soften his hawkish rhetoric, citing more data pointing to slower euro-zone growth.

Bank of England is also expected to leave rate unchanged at 5%, the lowest since December 2006.

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.