Forex Day Trading

EURUSD Outlook

Yesterday the EURUSD bearish momentum seemed very limited. The trend line support on daily chart around 1.4695/1.4703 level should be the key level at this phase. A break to the downside could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4590. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4757 followed by 1.4807. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4696
• S2= 1.4639
• S3= 1.4584
• R1= 1.4808
• R2= 1.4863
• R3= 1.4920

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD made indecisive movement by opened and closed at almost the same price (1.8518 and 1.8526). My model goes mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.8450 followed by 1.8405. CCI seems rejecting the -100 line on 4h and daily chart suggesting the pair might have a strong support area at this phase. However, I think the pressure to the downside is not over yet.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.8424
• S2= 1.8322
• S3= 1.8239
• R1= 1.8609
• R2= 1.8692
• R3= 1.8794

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY bullish momentum was rejected yesterday. The pair bottomed at 109.02 and closed at 109.30. Resistance level at 110.66 area seems to be a key level at this phase. My model goes mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 108.90 followed by 108.50. Initial resistance at 109.80. CCI in neutral area on all 3 time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 108.78
• S2= 108.27
• S3= 107.52
• R1= 110.04
• R2= 110.79
• R3= 111.30

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF is moving in ranging market between 1.1030 and 1.0840. We need a breakout to find a clearer direction. Immediate support is seen at 1.0950 followed by 1.0920. Initial resistance at 1.1030. An upside break from that level could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.1105 area. CCI in neutral area in all 3 time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0907
• S2= 1.0860
• S3= 1.0798
• R1= 1.1016
• R2= 1.1078
• R3= 1.1125

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European markets Likely to extend losses on weak global cues

Global cues are pointing towards a lower opening for the major European markets on Tuesday. The U.S. market tumbled overnight after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell to their lowest level in twenty years on concerns that the U.S. government may have to bail out the mortgage lenders. The Asian markets are trading sharply lower Tuesday on fresh fears about U.S. credit markets. Crude oil prices declined on Monday as Tropical Storm Fay steered clear of oil-producing infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.

However, the major European index futures are mixed. The FTSE 100 index futures show marginal strength, while the CAC 40 and DAX 30 index futures are showing weakness.

In the Asian session Tuesday, Brent North Sea crude was down 67 cents at $111.27 a barrel by 11:11 p.m. ET. In London Monday, October Brent crude futures fell 61 cents to settle at $111.94 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

In Europe, the major economic data scheduled for release are the Euro-Zone and the German ZEW surveys for August and the German producer prices for July. In the U.S., traders await data on July housing starts and producer price index. Economists at UBS have predicted that housing starts and permits probably fell sharply in July.

The European markets fell for the first time in three days on Monday, as banking stocks edged lower following media reports of further troubles in the sector and a weaker dollar hurt export-sensitive stocks. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of pan-European blue chips closed down 0.1% at 1,189 and the narrower DJ Stoxx 50 index closed flat at 2,905. Around Europe, the U.K.`s FTSE 100 index slipped 0.08% to 5,450, France`s CAC 40 index declined 0.11% to 4,448 and Germany`s DAX index dropped 0.20% to 6,432.

On Monday, the Dow Industrials fell 1.55%, the broader S&P 500 index shed 1.51% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index lost 1.45%.

In Asia Tuesday, Japan`s Nikkei 225 index is down 2.26%, South Korea`s KOSPI is down 1.95%, Australia`s All Ordinaries index is down 1.31% and Hong Kong`s Hang Seng index is down 0.65%. China`s Shanghai composite index is edging up 0.18%.

On the currency front, the euro slipped to a new multi-month low of 161.03 against the yen in Asian deals Tuesday, but it recovered against the dollar. The euro is largely choppy against the pound. At about 11:45 p.m. ET, the euro traded at $1.4695 and 0.7887 pound. The euro closed Monday`s European session at 0.7891 pound, 162.24 yen and $1.4740.

In the U.K., Brixton, Mears Group, Findel and Tribal Group are scheduled to report earnings. Kesa Electricals may see some activity after Goldman Sachs raised the rating of the company to `buy/cautious` from `sell/cautious`.

Renesola, the world`s largest recycler of scrap wafers used in solar panels, is scheduled to release a trading statement. Woolworths Group may react to a report by Financial Times that the grouping led by Baugur Group Hf, which was rebuffed by the board of Woolworths, has contacted other shareholders of the U.K. retailer in an effort to force its directors to open discussions.

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Weakness In Oil Prices | ForexGen Newsletter

Renewed weakness in oil prices and a break of 1.4850

News and Events:

The Dollar rallied to an almost six-month high against the Euro on Thursday amid growing concern over euro zone economic weakness and accelerating inflation in the United States.

Traders sold the Euro after reports showed contraction in the Euro zone's economy in the second quarter. The Euro zone single currency accelerated its losses and fell below 1.4800 after it broke through key technical levels, analysts said. Government data showed US consumer prices rose at twice the rate expected in July. Analysts said higher prices in the short term may help boost the case for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, although they warned that over time, inflation would hurt the economy.

Oil prices are down more than $30 from a record high 145.45 hit in
July. Crude oil settled 1.26% lower on Thursday at $114.93 a barrel.

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Consumer Sentiment

Expect some volatility on the markets today as consumer sentiment will be released. The expectation is 62% and if the actual value released is greater than the 62% expectation then that will normally indicate strength for the Dollar.

Euro had a minimal intra day bounce before it's downtrend continuation but a further continuation or a reversal could pend on today's consumer sentiment.

We took another position on the AUDJPY with 80 pips in profit zone and managing the trade. It is unlikely we will hold this position over the weekend.

Below are today's daily pivot points.

ForexGen.com is an online trading service provider supplying a unique and individualized service to Forex traders worldwide. We are dedicated to absolutely provide the best online trading services in the Forex market.

ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.

Currencies Risk Manager

Currencies Risk Manager 13-08-2008

EurUsd Market dropped to 1.4816 low on Tuesday following Friday break below 1.5304 former strong support from 13th June. Further weakness below 1.5000 will put the focus on 1.4779 26th February low. Strong support holds 1.4685 22nd January low. On the upside, only a return over 1.5500 will release actual pressure and put key initial resistance 1.6000 into focus. A break up there would open the way to Trendline resistance 1.6200.

GbpUsd Cable hit 2.0158 high 4-weeks ago and 1.8953 low yesterday. Key level holds 2.0100 resistance. On the downside, Friday break below on 1.9337 January low support lead to market below 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1162 advance). Former support 1.9363 holds strong resistance. Initial support holds 1.8953 yesterday low.

UsdJpy Last 3-weeks recovery pushed the market up to 110.40 high on Friday. The last break of 108.59 former resistance put focus on 110.10 strong resistance (Trendline). Further advance would open the way toward 111.92 early January high. On the downside, a return below 108.59 former resistance will undermine the current advance. Profit taking might bring back down to 105 level and may open the way toward 102.73 support and 100 pivot point. Initial support holds 108.53 today low.

UsdChf Recent Dollar strength pushed over 1.0500 last week and hit 1.0926 high yesterday. Market broke up resistance of the 3-months upper trendline at 1.0766 last week. Initial support holds 1.0500 key level. Renewed weakness below 1.0375 would retest the 1.0000 pivot point and may open the way toward 0.9637 17th March low.

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ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.

Dollar Demand

Dollar Demand Waned On Tuesday After US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Shrank In June

News and Events:

The Dollar slipped against the Euro on Tuesday, breaking a five-session rally as investors locked in profits ahead of key economic data later in the week.

EurUsd has already dropped 4.11% this month with help from a sell-off in Oil prices and growing fears economies elsewhere may slow at a faster pace than in the United States.

Oil prices traded down 1.31% on Tuesday at $113 per barrel, after dropping more than $35 since a record 145.45 high hit in July.

Data on Tuesday showed the US trade deficit shrank unexpectedly in June to $56.8b, down from a revised $59.2. But losses in the Dollar were limited as investors awaited data on US retail sales and consumer prices for July, due out Wednesday and Thursday.

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ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.

ForexGen serves both private and institutional clients. We have a strong commitment to maintain a long term relationship with our clients.

Economic Slowdown In Europe

Signs of economic slowdown in Europe, Asia and Australia reduced outlooks for higher interest rates and boosted demand for Dollar

News and Events:

The Dollar rallied to a five-and-a-half month high against the Euro on Monday, boosted by another drop in Crude Oil prices and speculation that the US economy slowdown was spreading worldwide. Mounting signs of economic difficulties in Europe, Asia and Australia have diminished prospects of higher interest rates outside the United States, bolstering demand for the Dollar.

The euro briefly recouped some of its losses after European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher warned that policy-makers remained focused on taming high inflation. Liebscher told Market News International that inflation risks remained to the upside in the medium term and that there is no room for "complacency" on euro zone interest rates and inflation.

Declining Oil prices helped ease worries about the impact of higher energy costs on the US economy and also helped boost demand for the greenback.

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 11 August 2008

The Usd was broadly stronger in Asian session, as market prepare for a heavy week of economic indicators. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of last week aggressive Usd rally was the lack of strong confirmation from other financial markets, specifically rate and oil. The EurUsd strength clearly outpaced the gains in crude prices, while across practically all maturities the interest rate differential between the euro area and US are unchanged. This suggests the Usd is overbought. The EurUsd broke the critical 1.5000 support, trading down to 1.4911, while UsdJpy climbed to 110.40 before easing back to the figure. The AudUsd consolidated around the 0.8860 level, as August Statement of Monetary Policy held no real surprise one way or the other.

In Australia, the Statement of Monetary Policy didn't provide evidence that rates would be coming down near term. The main paragraph was unchanged from the last statement "On the assumption that the subdued demand conditions are likely to continue, scope to move to a less restrictive monetary policy stance in the period ahead is increasing." If there was a noticeable change in the statement it was a shift in the usual upbeat tone regarding China and India.

Consideration this week will be focused on if the long-bullish sentiment surrounding the Eur has come to an end, due to the slide in commodity prices and change in market perceptions regarding the direction of ECB monetary policy.

In the UK, today's PPI report might show that prices pressures have peaked. However, the CPI released due Thursday is unlikely to have such positive news. We are expecting CPI to rise to 4.1%, with the potential to peak in September

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9206
R 2: 0.9131
R 1: 0.9074
CURRENT: 0.8873
S 1: 0.8889
S 2: 0.8875
S 3: 0.8819

EURJPY
R 3: 169.97
R 2: 169.49
R 1: 167.82
CURRENT: 164.58
S 1: 165.01
S 2: 163.00
S 3: 161.73

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4265
R 2: 1.4219
R 1: 1.4058
CURRENT: 1.4072
S 1: 1.3925
S 2: 1.3819
S 3: 1.3767

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

Dollar Rose Broadly Against Majors

Dollar rose broadly against majors on surprising data and lower expectations for ECB rate increase

News and Events:

The Dollar rose broadly and hit a 5-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday, bolstered by a surprise rise in June Home sales and diminished expectations for euro zone interest rate increases.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, in remarks after the bank held rates at 4.25%, said he expects economic growth in the euro zone to weaken substantially this year, even as he sees inflation remaining above the ECB's target. Following his comments, investors unwound bets for ECB interest rate increases this year.

Further pressuring the Dollar was an increase in Crude oil by 0.94% to 119.92 per barrel after falling to a three-month low 117.14 on Wednesday.

Throughout our partnership with the industrial leaders, we are capable of delivering incomparable quality of online currency trading service.
ForexGen services are all controlled by the international banking and financial regulatory standards.
ForexGen is continuously providing the Forex market's safest trading terms & conditions. Providing professional currency trading services that meet our client's expectations is our first priority.

ForexGen principals:

ForexGen customer satisfaction is our major objective. To reach our business goals, we strive to put our client's goals in focus. We highly value our clients and always aim to exceed their expectations and cross the limitations encountered by the sophistication of the Forex trading industry.

Dollar Edges

Dollar edged up ahead of G8 comments and last week Oil record high

News and Events:

The Dollar edged up to a one-week high versus a basket of major currencies on Monday, on speculation that comments from G8 officials could push Oil prices further away from last week's record highs.

The Greenback also continued to benefit from a neutral European Central Bank tone, which reduced expectations of further rate hikes after last Thursday's move to 4.25%.

Oil hit 145.85 high on Thursday ahead of G8 meeting in Japan. Crude prices show a close negative correlation with the Dollar because the United States is a heavy energy.

Investors have started to take the view that risks to growth and concern about the financial sector will prevent the Fed from raising the fed funds rate from 2% for now.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

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Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Oli And Dollar Dropping

Dollar fell to 3-week low as Oil surged to record high and US stock dropped.

News and Events:

The Dollar fell to three-week lows against the Euro on Friday, dented after Oil prices surged to a record high, data showed US consumer sentiment hit a 28-year low and Wall Street stocks extended their slide.

The Dollar would stay under pressure after US financial shares fell on Friday on worries about more credit losses. Lehman Brothers forecast Merrill Lynch would write down another $5.4bio in the 2nd quarter, while Moody's said it may cut Morgan Stanley's credit rating.

The European Central Bank holds a policy meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to raise rates to 4.25% fight rising prices. The key US jobs data is also due on Thursday.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Economic And Credit Worrie

Dollar near lows economic and credit worries

News and Events:

The Dollar slumped on Thursday, hitting its lowest level against the Euro in nearly three weeks, as investors reduced their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate rise this year.

While the Federal Reserve on Wednesday said inflation risks had increased, it did not use language that convinced markets a rate rise was likely at its next policy meeting in August. In contrast, the ECB has repeatedly said it may lift interest rates in July to fight inflation. That helped push the Euro near a three-week high at 1.5768. The US central bank's move to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday effectively ended one of its most aggressive rate-cutting campaigns, launched last September to curb economic fallout from the housing and credit crisis.

US financial stocks plummeted while shares of General Motors sank more than 10%. Fitch Ratings' downgrade of General Motors and Chrysler credit ratings also hit the Dollar, as did the Dow's drop to its lowest level in 21 months. Oil prices on Thursday shot up to a record above $140 a barrel.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 27 June 2008

Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session after yesterday surging oil prices and worries over growth punished the greenback. EurUsd pulled back from 1.5763 to 1.5724 while GbpUsd followed as 1.9897 to 1.9857. However, the easing of pressure goes against the bearish feel the Usd attracted over recent days and we expect further dollar weakness. US stock markets took a massive dive while crude push to it highest levels ever. Asian stock markets followed the US lower and European equities futures are pointing to a negative open.

Thursday was a red day for US equity markets, as it was for markets in Europe. The S&P500 was lower by nearly 3%, while the DJIA was off by just over 3%, and the NASDAQ by 3.3%. The S&P500 broke through the 1300 level, while crude was moving in the opposite direction crossing the $140 mark, before closing at a record of just under $140. US Economic news out on the day was decent, but was completely overlooked. The summer looks like it's going to be a long one...Oil prices shot up over $140 barrel after the head of OPEC stated that prices could hit $170 barrel this year. Goldman Sachs forecasted more write-downs for Citigroup and they also recommended selling auto shares, this news sent shivers through financial stocks.

Asian markets are unsurprisingly lower this morning, as the Nikkei declines 2.7%, the Hang Seng is down 1.8% and the MSCI A-P is lower by 2.4%. The region is set to return its worst H1 since 1992, as the credit crunch hits home.

In our view Japan's economic data was decidedly negative. Retail sales exceeded market expectations reaching 0.2% but has slowed since February's peak and when you carve out fuel consumption was -0.1% yoy. Household survey's showed real spending was down -3.2% vs. -2.1% exp and Auto sales slowed to 0.2%. In our mind just more evidence that Japan is facing significant headwind on both the domestic & international front and we expect Jpy to suffer.

In the European session markets will be watching EC Economic Sentiment Indicator. This indicator has recently been optimistic regarding economic activity in the euro zone but should fall further today. With the euro at elevated levels and global demand soft industrial confidence should also weaken. However with markets trading off commodity prices and stock markets we don't expect a soft figure will have significant effect on EurUsd strength. In addition, since we are expecting the ECB to hike and NFP to shed over 100k jobs 1.6000 doesn't seem impossible.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9604
CURRENT: 0.9582
S 1: 0.9490
S 2: 0.9448
S 3: 0.9405

EURJPY
R 3: 171.00
R 2: 170.00
R 1: 169.15
CURRENT: 168.17
S 1: 166.77
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.51

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3645
S 1: 1.3635
S 2: 1.3580
S 3: 1.3554

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

FOMC Report

FX market turn over Euro as FOMC left rates on hold

News and Events:

The FOMC left rates on hold at 2% which was widely expected but voiced their growing concern about inflation but also said that they expect price pressure to moderate through the year. These comments lead many to believe that the chance of the Fed hiking rates has become more limited and thus we see an easing of the Dollar against the Euro. Overall the chance of the Fed raising rates during Q3 has already been priced into the market so it’s likely that the Dollar bulls will be disappointed with the news.


With the ECB likely to be raising rates at some stage in the near term then the big winner was the Euro.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Oil dipped to just above $134 barrel on a surprise rise in stocks. Plenty of data released later including US home sales which may have climbed as prices have become attractive to those who can get credit.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 26 June 2008

Usd was stable in the Asian session after being sold off in response to the FOMC meeting. EurUsd ranged between 1.5660 and 1.5685 while UsdJpy trended upwards from 107.75 to 108.05. Carry trades continued to exhibit strong momentum with EurJpy finally breaking thru 168.80 resistance, climbing to 169.40 and AudJpy followed that trend by breaking thru 103.48 resistance, reaching new highs at 103.69. In addition, given the fact that the EurJpy has historically proven to be a good indicator of risk appetite we expect continued demand of yield driven currency trades.

US stocks ended higher Wednesday after oil prices fell and the Fed left rates unchanged at 2%. The major indexes retreated from their post-FOMC highs in late-afternoon trading, with the Dow barely closing in positive territory. Asian markets trading higher this morning after the Fed said downside risks to growth appear to have diminished and gave no signs that it will raise interest rates anytime soon. Sony & Nintendo led the advancers. Oil prices pulled back after an unexpected increase in crude stockpiles but pared their losses after the Fed statement; the Aug '08 contract was down $2.45 to $134.55. Gold prices closed lower on the back of lower oil prices; the most active was the Aug '08 contract down $9.30 to $882.30. We also saw Sep '08 silver -13.2 ¢ at $16.607/oz.

Yesterday the Fed left rates unchanged at 2.00% and the statement showed the downside risks have diminished slightly and upside inflation risks have increased. Overall the statement had a less hawkish tone then what the market was expecting and failed to indicate that the fed is in any real hurry to begin hiking rates. As expected Fisher voted for an immediate hike (on the record saying the fed shouldn’t have moved below 3.5%). What was interesting and perhaps the strongest signal to the market that rate expectation have become over done was Plossers vote to hold rates along with the majority. In addition, the lack of assessment by the Fed of how inflation measured against growth ie which measurement would steer the Fed monetary policy suggested again that members are in no rush to hike given the unsettled domestic condition. With both rate cuts and hikes off the table in the near term much depends on economic data. We currently are not expecting much for the US and believe data will point to an economy just getting by but with significant downside risk. This should keep the Usd under pressure and we are watching for EurUsd to begin creeping upwards.

While data out of New Zealand has little monetary policy effect, a wider Current account deficit was not what official were hoping for (declined to 2.160bn deficit in Q1 from 3.410bn in Q1). Account deficit GDP ratio at 7.8%. Net income deficits worsened while exports outstripped imports.

Austria data was mixed with Conference Board indicators printed higher then expected at 0.3% vs. -0.4% while job vacancies rose 3.4% after a drop in April of -2.5%.

In the UK five members of the MPC will testify to the treasury committee on May inflation report (not a position we envy). This should be a good time for the markets to receive some clarity regarding how seriously the members are considering a rate hike. Especially given last weeks mixed communications signals. But overall we expect that we will see a diverse view of how each member views the inflation verse growth situation.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9604
CURRENT: 0.9578
S 1: 0.9490
S 2: 0.9448
S 3: 0.9405

EURJPY
R 3: 171.00
R 2: 170.00
R 1: 169.15
CURRENT: 169.13
S 1: 166.77
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.51

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3666
S 1: 1.3635
S 2: 1.3580
S 3: 1.3554

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Dollar And Consumer Confidence

Dollar weakens 16-year low US Consumer Confidence

News and Events:

The Dollar retreated on Tuesday as a lower US consumer confidence, 16-year low in June, and declining home prices raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to hike interest rates to stem inflation.

The Fed began a two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the US central bank to hold interest rates steady at 2%. But traders will pore over the Fed's accompanying statement for clues about possible hikes later in the year.

US short-term interest rate futures trimmed the chances of a rate hike in August to 70% from 74%.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Forex Market Overview

Forex Market Overview 25 June 2008

FX markets were unusually calm in the Asian session as markets await the news from the FOMC meeting. EurUsd was stuck in a 10 pip range for most of the session trading from 1.5565 to 1.5577 before breaking to the downside as Europe prepared to open. UsdJpy provided little excitement ranging from 107.67 to 107.94 despite trade data showing that exports jumped a whopping 3.7%. GBP traded between 1.9695 and 1.9712 as it followed the rest of the currencies against the USD. Carry trades eased slightly from their elevated levels with EurJpy falling to 167.64 & AudJpy 102.90.

Stocks ended up lower after a choppy session Tuesday in the wake of consumer confidence data that fell to a 16 month low in June and after UBS’s profit warning. Asian markets are mostly trading down this morning due to a fall in metal prices that weighed heavily on the mining companies. Japanese stocks were lower on the back of default concerns around developer and consumer-finance companies. Oil prices closed higher, but below the day’s peak of near $139, ahead of today’s rate announcement and US petroleum inventory data. The Aug '08 contract is up $0.26 to $137.00. Gold closed with gains, as weakness in the dollar underpinned demand for the precious metal; the most active Aug '08 contract up $4.40 to $891.60 and Sep '08 silver -15.7 ¢ at $16.739/oz.

In New Zealand The Westpac consumer confidence index fell sharply from 96.5 to 81.7 and is just above the extreme lows recorded in the early 90's recession. The RBNZ was looking for more evidence of weakness in the household sector and this clearly helps build a case. We expect the central bank to begin cutting in the fall.

If you haven’t heard already the FOMC will be announcing their rate decisions and releasing an accompanying statement later today. We are inline with market expectation and believe the Fed will hold rates at 2.00%. We expect some slight changes in the accompanying statement specifically regarding inflation and inflation expectations, however we are less hawkish then most. On the growth side, better then expected retail sales, inventories and external trade indicates that GDP will just miss contracting in Q2, while both ISM manufacturing and non-Manu have strengthened in recent months. However, we expect the downside risk to the US economy, which has been highlighted by a string of soft housing, consumer confidence data, and the decline in households’ real incomes and wealth shrinking to influence the Fed decision (we are expecting 1-2 members to vote for a hike). Overall we expect the market to be slightly disappointed by the dovish tone and lack of willingness to pre commit to any rate hike near term. Should our base scenario prove correct we should see some Usd weakness as the 60bp already priced in for 2008 looks over done.

However, it should be noted that recently The ECB has been trying to pour cold water on recent comments that there will be a more aggressive rate increasing policy by saying they have not spoken about a series of rate hikes in the Eurozone. Basically it seems that policy makers at the ECB are concerned that investors have jumped the gun and that the latest data could make it harder to raise rates that previously thought.

In addition to the FOMC, the Norge Bank (Poland Central bank is also releasing and are expect to raise 25bp to 6.00%) will also announce rates and publish its monetary policy report today. Risk is slightly skewed to a hold, but with 40% of economists that were polled looking for a hike of 25bp this will be a close one to call. We are expected a 25bp hike in the next 6 months, however this will not be the meeting. We expect the MPR to show inflation projection being revised upward which keep the NOK supported.

Daily Forex Pivot Point
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9655
R 2: 0.9648
R 1: 0.9588
CURRENT: 0.9555
S 1: 0.9490
S 2: 0.9449
S 3: 0.9405

EURJPY
R 3: 170.00
R 2: 169.10
R 1: 168.39
CURRENT: 212.36
S 1: 166.78
S 2: 166.00
S 3: 165.53

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3850
R 2: 1.3827
R 1: 1.3730
CURRENT: 1.3681
S 1: 1.3634
S 2: 1.3580
S 3: 1.3554

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

CHFJPY Hedge to Cover Longs Through 380-pip Drawdown

The Swiss Franc has been trending higher against the Yen since late November of 2000. With both CHF and JPY traditionally used as funding currencies for carry trades when paired with other currencies, their relationship among themselves has been primarily driven by the slightly higher yield offered by the SNB versus the BOJ. With both monetary authorities now firmly on hold, there is little reason to believe the underlying conditions guiding the pair’s broad direction will change in the near term. That said, CHFJPY does tend to oscillate in wide ranges along its upward trajectory. This can mean substantial swings in P/L for traders holding long-term CHFJPY positions.

Price action has seen the pair confined to a neat upward-sloping corridor since August of last year. Current trading has taken CHFJPY to the upper boundary of this corridor, with the Slow Stochastic oscillator topping out above the key 80 level and appearing to favor a reversal. A bearish Hanging Man candle now appears at resistance, lending further credence to a near-term selloff.


Hedging Strategy

Currency Pair: CHFJPY

Long Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Position: Holding Long

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Position: Short below 103.40, Target 99.59, Stop-Loss at 104.31

Traders looking to protect their existing long CHFJPY position or enter long at a favorable price may consider a hedge short CHFJPY below 103.40 with a target at 99.59. Once the profit target is hit, we expect the bullish trend to resume. We will maintain a stop-loss on our hedge position should CHFJPY break out to the upside prior to the limit being hit. We will set the stop-loss near 104.31.





When should I use the hedging feature?

Markets hardly ever trade in the same direction for long. Though there are general trends that may unfold for weeks, months and years; there is almost always considerable fluctuation in price during these periods – sometimes leading to significant retracements. There are a few common strategies that traders use to immunize their risk to counter-trend moves while still holding to the long-term trend. One method of reacting to these changing tides is to actively enter and exit a trade on each swing, which requires constant attention and a superior ability to pick tops and bottoms. The other, more passive, strategy is to hold on for the long-term trend through retracements in the belief that the higher trend will reengage. Taking a temporary hedge positions through the counter-trend moves, on the other hand, requires less accuracy in picking tops and bottoms and at the same time lowers the drawdown while increasing the potential for return.

The hedging feature is currently available on all accounts using FXCM’s No Dealing Desk service.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

ZAR Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop

The South African rand headed for the biggest weekly loss against the U.S. dollar in the last three months as the traders were concerned that the high interest rates will prevent country’s economy to rise at a fast pace.

After the central bank said that the inflation will probably keep above the bank’s target 3-6 percent rate for at least until 2010, the rand reached its lowest value against the dollar since April 17 yesterday. The South African Reserve Bank is expected to increase the official repurchase rate from 11.50 percent to 12.50 percent on its next meeting on June 12.

Major investors believe that, while the rate hikes are probably the only right treatment for the accelerating inflation, the tight monetary conditions may significantly hurt the Africa’s biggest economy growth.

And while the higher interest rate can be a positive factor for the South African currency, the global unwillingness to hold the carry trade positions paired with the instability of the national economy can turn higher rates against the rand as it probably already happens now.

USD/ZAR rate rose this week on the Forex market from 7.6005 to 7.8223 as of 13:13 GMT today with a daily maximum at 7.8821- more 2.8 percent gain, making it a highest weekly growth for this currency pair since the week starting February 3 this year.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.

Dollar Rallies Big; Euro Tests Major Support

The EURUSD has held above 1.53 (to this point), but the critical level is 1.5283. A drop below there would shift focus to 1.51; which is a Fibonacci extension.

The drop below 1.5364 negates the short term bullish bias. The preferred count that calls for strength for current levels is intact as long as price is above 1.5283. A drop below there indicates that a C wave is underway towards 1.5108 (100% ext. of wave A from 1.6018) or even 1.4653 (161.8% ext.). The pattern should resolve itself in the next day or two.

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

“The USDJPY rally has gone through 107.20 so we need to look at other counts. One decline treats the drop from 124.13-95.72 as a W-X-Y decline (7 waves, which is corrective). However, it is not clear where this fits in the larger pattern (take a look at the monthly, and it is quite clear that the USDJPY has broken from a 4th wave bearish triangle). The other count is that the decline from 124.13 is a leading diagonal. In Elliott Wave Principle, it is stated that second waves following a leading diagonal often retrace 78.6% of the diagonal. Therefore, both counts suggest strength until 113/118 (roughly the 61.8% to 78.6%). The next short term move could be down in a b wave though (assuming that the advance from 95.72 is wave a). This sets up a near term bearish stance, then probably a flip to bullish in a few months for wave c.” Short term, the pair should encounter resistance from the confluence of the 200 day SMA and 2/14 high at 108.59. A short trade will probably be triggered in the next few days.

ForexGen provides its institutional clients with incomparable professional and individualized trading services. As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders. Our corporate and managed trading service performance are based on respect and appreciation which is only achieved by offering intelligent high end trading tools for secure investment. ForexGen is the easiest and fastest gateway for the corporate traders to perform successful trading, which provides a unique institutional investor professional facilities and highly qualified individualized services for the international customer. ForexGen provides advanced online trading software with full corporate trading services. A rich choice of managed accounts are also available, please check our Managed Account Section

ForexGen delivers what traders want: instant order execution, lowest spreads, flexible starting capital, fast deposits and withdrawal, a local support in more than 18 countries, and most of all, solid funds security.

Winning in trading depends on using the right strategy and controlling all the moves. Trading strategies are discussed in details at ForexGen Academy.